Another BIG system and currently snowing at the BOTTOM of GC

[azsnowman]

In my 40 years in Arizona, I've NEVER, EVER heard of snow at the BOTTOM of the Grand Canyon but guess what? It IS snowing at the bottom and *sigh* another BIG system is on it's way! AND BTW...I've had another 5" of snow in little over 2 hours....taking my snow totals to 72" since 4 December!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 302231 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 331 PM MST WED JAN 30 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING FAIR AND CRISP WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR THIS WEEKEND. && .

DISCUSSION...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST AREA. SNOW WAS EVEN REPORTED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE GRAND CANYON THIS AFTERNOON. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 5000 FEET AND 7000 FEET UNTIL 5 PM MST. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. SHOWERS SHOULD END ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY AROUND 400 AM THURSDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTHERN ARIZONA UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING COLD NORTHERLY WINDS OVER ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A MUCH STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 4500 FEET ALONG THE UTAH BORDER TO NEAR 5500 FEET IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY.

[Squarethecircle]

Wow, that's pretty cool. Bet it'd be awesome to watch.

[Scott Patterson]

In my 40 years in Arizona, I've NEVER, EVER heard of snow at the BOTTOM of the Grand Canyon but guess what?

Dang, that's pretty unusual. We were just there on Christmas if you want to see some photos:

http://www.summitpost.org/album/371515/ ... -2007.html

Anyway here are the times that Phantom Ranch/Inner Canyon in the last 50 years had measureable snow if you are interested:

Jan 1 1960; 1 inch
Jan 2 1971; 2 inches
Jan 3 1971; 2 inches
Jan 9 1973; 2 inches
December 6 1960; 2 inches
December 6 1978; 1 inch
Dec 14 1967; 3 inches

If this the snow falling is measureable, it looks like the latest in the winter that it has snowed measurably.

[2 Seam Fastball]

I will second that. Its pretty cool. I am happy for you.

[azsnowman]

Well, here we go...ANOTHER 20" possible, if this does verify, this will add to the 72" that have fallen already!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
930 am MST Friday Feb 01 2008


Synopsis...expect partly cloudy skies...along with cooler high
temperatures...and a slight chance for light showers mainly over
higher elevations as a weak weather system moves across Arizona
today. A stronger weather system will begin to affect northern
Arizona late Sunday into Monday. The heaviest precipitation is
forecast to occur Sunday night into Monday morning.


&&


Discussion...morning satellite imagery indicates main band of
clouds associated with the short wave trough was quickly moving across Arizona.
Expect only a slight chance of flurries or sprinkles with this
system today. Current grids and forecast handle this well and no updates
required.


&&


Previous discussion (330 am)...breezier conditions and cooler high
temperatures can be expected today...except for the Little Colorado River
valley where high temperatures will actually be a little warmer. The western
states will see another low pressure trough develop which will have
significant impact later in the weekend and into Monday. For late
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning a weak weather disturbance will
move across northern Arizona bringing some light precipitation to the area. There is
forecast to be a brief break in precipitation Sunday morning. However by Sunday
afternoon and into Monday morning this system will begin to impact
the area with much heavier precipitation. Good orographics will accompany
this system...with the atmos becoming unstable by Sunday afternoon.
This will coincide with the main synoptic lift and frontogenesis.
Snow levels will be around 5000 feet during the day Sunday and then
falling to around 4000 feet by Monday morning. Storm total snowfall
amounts are expected to be in the 6 to 12 inch range with higher
amounts up to 20 inches possible in the highest elevations of northern
Arizona.

[azskyman]

Yessiree, Snowman! Another one on the way. Already talking about double-digit snow totals up your way Sunday night and Monday.

I've had a blast pulling up the Sunrise Park Resort webcams on the days when there are whiteout conditions. Hard to believe that one season can be so GREAT for skiiers and another a down right disaster! But then, that's Arizona for you.

We have about 1 million extra people here in Phoenix today, so I don't think many will be heading to the Grand Canyon if it is snowing on the floor!

Take care, and enjoy the next ride!

Steve

[azsnowman]

WELL....12-24" possible!??!?! Sounds like the March 06 Blizzard!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FXUS65 KFGZ 021102 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 349 AM MST SAT FEB 2 2008 .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTELED WEATHER WILL RAMP UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA STARTING TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ARIZONA. A MUCH STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY WILL BE FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET...LOWERING TO BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...PERHAPS PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...NONE OF THE OBSERVING SITES HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING SO FAR THIS MORNING EXCEPT MILFORD UTAH. NEXT TROUGH TO COME THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA...WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A MUCH COLDER AND DEEPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING OROGRAPHIC LIFT SUNDAY MORNING WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME INITIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...THEN THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM HAPPY JACK TO PRESCOTT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE KAI BAB. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND FROM FLAGSTAFF EAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOS WILL ALSO BECOME UNSTABLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY INTENSE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...THIS MAY LEAD SO SOME AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PROJECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL VARY FOR DIFFERENT ELEVATIONS...BETWEEN 5000 TO 7000 FEET 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...BETWEEN 7000 TO 9000 12 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE... AND BETWEEN 4000 TO 5000 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE WEST...WEST OF FLAGSTAFF MONDAY EVENING AND TO THE EAST OF FLAGSTAFF BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK WX DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL PUSH WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. &&

[azsnowman]

WELL....12-24" possible!??!?! Sounds like the March 06 Blizzard!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FXUS65 KFGZ 021102 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 349 AM MST SAT FEB 2 2008 .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTELED WEATHER WILL RAMP UP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA STARTING TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ARIZONA. A MUCH STRONGER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS SUNDAY WILL BE FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET...LOWERING TO BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...PERHAPS PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...NONE OF THE OBSERVING SITES HAVE REPORTED ANYTHING SO FAR THIS MORNING EXCEPT MILFORD UTAH. NEXT TROUGH TO COME THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA...WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A MUCH COLDER AND DEEPER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING OROGRAPHIC LIFT SUNDAY MORNING WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME INITIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST...THEN THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM HAPPY JACK TO PRESCOTT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE KAI BAB. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWEST THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR FROM SUNDAY NOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND FROM FLAGSTAFF EAST FROM EARLY SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOS WILL ALSO BECOME UNSTABLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY INTENSE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP...THIS MAY LEAD SO SOME AREAS RECEIVING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PROJECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL VARY FOR DIFFERENT ELEVATIONS...BETWEEN 5000 TO 7000 FEET 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...BETWEEN 7000 TO 9000 12 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE... AND BETWEEN 4000 TO 5000 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ABOVE 4000 FEET. THE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE WEST...WEST OF FLAGSTAFF MONDAY EVENING AND TO THE EAST OF FLAGSTAFF BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK WX DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...WHICH WILL PUSH WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. &&

[azsnowman]

It is now a winter storm warning and let me tell ya....that doesn't describe HALF of what's going on here...SOB, the WIND is a KILLER today, as you'll see, Show Low has had a peak gust of 49 MPH, my station has recorded a peak gust of 51 MPH but given my location (1/2 mile from the Mogollon Rim), I'm getting the flow blown effect of this system!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
257 PM MST SUN FEB 3 2008

AZZ010-011-016>018-040600-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080205T0100Z/
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA..
WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES..
SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG
257 PM MST SUN FEB 3 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY..

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST MONDAY.

A STRONG AND COLD WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOW INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET AND 12 TO 24 INCHES
ABOVE 8000 FEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1/2
MILE AT TIMES.

SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED AS OF 230 PM TODAY INCLUDE..

WINDOW ROCK ................ 1 TO 2 INCHES.

SOME WIND GUSTS REPORTED AS OF 230 PM TODAY INCLUDE..

WINDOW ROCK ................ 37 MPH.
SHOW LOW ................... 49 MPH.
HEBER ...................... 47 MPH.

[azsnowman]

Had 7" of wet "cement" snow overnight and continuing as I post this! Many business' are closed, school is in their 6th snow day this year!! BTW....with the 7", this takes my total to 79" this winter

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AZZ010-011-016>018-041900-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080205T0100Z/
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CANYON DE CHELLY...CHINLE...KAYENTA..
WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES..
SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG
704 AM MST MON FEB 4 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON..

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET
AND 12 TO 24 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET. WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS. DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND/OR
CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT 1 888 411
7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT http://WWW.AZ511.COM.