000
AXNT20 KNHC 082341
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON FEB 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W TO 5N20W 
3N30W 2N40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM 3N-5N 
BETWEEN 23W-25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT 
OVER TEXAS ABOUT 80-100 NM FROM THE COAST MOVING E. THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. EXPECT... THE 
COLD FRONT TO RACE ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO THEN EXTEND FROM CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG 20N67W 19N70W 18N77W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 73W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
8N-15N BETWEEN 81W-86W. MORE SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 87W-90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT... THE TEXAS COLD FRONT TO 
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE N 
YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA 
ALONG 31N80W 28N79W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N60W 20N67W 19N70W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N31W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 27N23W TO 8N34W. EXPECT THE 
TEXAS COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 
32N78W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH WITH SHOWERS. ALSO 
EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND REACH 
32N36W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA