Really shows you how bizarre of an event 2005 was. The only years that really came close to that was 1996 (Cat 3 open ocean hurricane), and even then, seasons like 2010 and 1933 spawned high-end Cat 2s in mid-summer and not major hurricanes. Bertha 2008 was also a July major, coincidentally with th...

The fact that we have these two things spinning in the Atlantic is certainly interesting, especially in April: (I know, the western one shouldn't be named regardless)

Wow, 2024. Impressive but at the same time worrisom. https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1782845560644354137 To be very honest, seeing these makes me wonder why it was universally agreed upon that 2020 would be hyperactive in the first place. (Not "season canceling" 2020, but in hinds...

cycloneye wrote:Dont want to think it will happen again. Hunting for #69.

Luis must be very happy today see the flurry of activity coming in today.

MDR SSTs may be (temporarily) out of record-breaking territory for a few days, with the caveat that the OISST-based data is affected by the current SAL outbreak... But MDR OHC is still comfortably above the available 2013-2023 data. https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1781674783374999809?s=19 http...

Correlation between instability and ACE.
 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1781122243189207169

I meant that in 2021 with the Atlantic Nino, the waves were coming off so far south that a good amount were too low-latitude to develop. Not saying that no wave was north of South America and that this was the sole reason October ‘21 was dead, nor that nothing should develop from waves in October (...

Updating mine to 22/12/6 ACE 195 (add 2 TS and 5 ACE), still preliminary

Tropical waves are so far south by October that they all run into South America Are you saying that tropical waves have zero latitude in October or that this happened in 2021 specifically? Because, no offense, neither are true. Example of a tropical wave in Oct 2021 very much north of South America...

This tweet was from 2021, the most recent year with as pronounced of an Atlantic Nino as this year. The gist is that westerly wind anomalies and warm SSTAs typically shift north from equatorial Atlantic to MDR at peak season.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1413193049107226625

cycloneye wrote:Very interesting X long thread that discuss about the implications of the Atlantic Niño.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1780408867261931877

My highlights:
 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408880742441127



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408888250228869

Hmm... The eastern MDR SSTAs have fallen off a cliff the last couple days.

Hey guys... I'm still waiting for the first bet of 40/20/10 or higher!

Having never experienced actual hurricane-force winds myself (only a few TSes so far), I have far less to contribute to the conversation than others. But I did see a Hurricane Katrina exhibit at the Presbytere in New Orleans, and I highly recommend it, especially for those who have the same question...

The SSTA profile in the Pacific now looks a bit hilarious, even if hardly unexpected.


The 15-day SSTA change in the ENSO regions is also quite striking:

PMM and its impact on late-season activity. Note the tweet made a typo and meant PMM is currently slightly negative.
 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1778342978576060718

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1778516777800192420 Positive NAO during summer. Steering implications aside, if we get a +NAO to persist throughout the summer, I'm curious to see if/how much the WAM mitigates any sort of potential cooling effect that may come with it. WAM will likely be ...

In addition to the ridiculousness of +AMO persisting throughout the winter, from a quick eyeballing, this also seems to suggest anomalous warmth being transferred from the Canary Current down to the MDR proper. IIRC, this may actually be the main mechanism for why a warm Canary Current early in the ...

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1778101982957322688

Bumping the 2023 indicator thread because of this tweet that shows how anomalous the season was, specifically in terms of having favorable upper-level winds over the MDR (-ve y-axis) despite an El Nino (+ve x-axis). As a side note, the plot also shows that years with warm MDR SSRs (red dots) general...