This Could Start A Ruckuss... First Call On DEC 8th Strm

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

Ok Here we go... Comments... are below map... One of These codes should work... lol...



[img=http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/6771/forum1stcallab3vy.th.png]

For those that don't know... when it comes to forecasting snow I don't really believe in holding back like every other orginazation does... The time will come when they get caught with their pants down again... ala Dec 1999... But that is neither here nor there at the moment.

I'm aware my totals are high, but there are reasons behind it... and I will ay them out here... 1) Analog is scarily close to Presidents Day 1979 2) The NAM jumping all over this thing as early as it has ( I just want to bring it a bit further east) 3) This sucker has alot of moister to work with, kept its pacfic moister, will pick up Gulf and then Atlantic... 4) Alot more feedback with this than the previous storm... closed low rolling in... 5) Temps... ratios will be near 20 to 1 in some spots so I don't see why 15 or 16" is out of the question here... 6) Model agreement (hard to believe... March 01... lets pray not)

Someone is really going to get nailed here... is it exactly where I have it... don't know, but thats the area that favorable at least to me at this time... maybe not as far south as the DC suburbs though... Will be making another map tomorrow... but please comment, try to be nice though... lol

Jer

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I hate all this technical crap... the second code... click it to see the map up-close and personal... i forget how to do all this stuff, a year off and I'm rusty... sorry about the confusion

Thanx
Jer

[Noreaster_Jer_04]

I'll try one more time.. just for amusment and to make sure I do it right next time...

[Tri-State_1925]

I'm tired of the coastline getting the big stuff. We gotta get back to the old days (aka a few years ago) when the coast would always get mix/rain and inland would get hammered.

[wxwatcher91]

I'm tired of the coastline getting the big stuff. We gotta get back to the old days (aka a few years ago) when the coast would always get mix/rain and inland would get hammered.

agree with you fully there!

[ohiostorm]

Have you looked into the Ohio Valley much? Our NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch.

[iwantsnow321]

hey Jer. Its good to have you back man. LIKING YOU MAP!!

[terstorm1012]

How are the models handling this storm? They were pisspoor with the monday storm. 2-4 inches turned into 2-4 snowflakes here.

[therock1811]

I'm tired of the coastline getting the big stuff. We gotta get back to the old days (aka a few years ago) when the coast would always get mix/rain and inland would get hammered.

If you notice, further south, the inland area is hammered. It's the northern part of the map where the heavy snow reaches the coast.

[nholley]

How are the models handling this storm? They were pisspoor with the monday storm. 2-4 inches turned into 2-4 snowflakes here.

Wow...you got that much......we got exactly nothing!!

[terstorm1012]

How are the models handling this storm? They were pisspoor with the monday storm. 2-4 inches turned into 2-4 snowflakes here.

Wow...you got that much......we got exactly nothing!!

2-4 snowflakes spread out over 6 hours. It was a travel nightmare of biblical proportions!

[fasteddy77]

Seems like a hefty amount of snow... Is there something that needs to fall in place to make this amount of snow around the northern DC burbs??

[NoreasterJer06]

Yes its teh author of the thread... for some reason I have two accounts I guess and at work and I can't get the password sent here... stupid company Internet blocks.... GRRRR...

The red zone is more of a generalized belief that someone is going to get nailed somewhere in that area and it could be anywhere... southern NE is a good bet but so is NJ and Eastern PA... The DC burbs... it depends on how quickly this storm will bomb out... ther quicker the better obviously... and that will remain to be seen until that time comes. There is a danger here on two opposite sides of the sword...

1) The chance for intense bombing and banding of snow, creating lolipop zones where the storm will drop in the last 2 hours what it had the previous 5... Presidents Day 79' comes to mind... 4-6" in the last 2 hours in a few spots... if this occurs some zones could get double the snow fall if the top end at this point is 10"... that could mean 20"... I don't think it will get that extreme... my cap is leaning on 15"

2) the secnond danger is from teh upperlevel feature actually forcing an anti cyclonic flow... which could create a nasty dry slot... Which of course cuts back on totals this area I think will be in SW PA maybe east to Harrisburg... but east of there its a free for with snow...