EURO falls in line

[Extremeweatherguy]

We just had our earliest ever highs in the middle 30s here in Houston, and a high of 37 at IAH on Thursday beat the old record low high for the day of 44. With it being this cold so early, I would bet that this turns out to be a winter where cold shots could be more severe than usual. I see it as not an "if" another shot of arctic air is coming, but more of a "when"...and I would predict AT LEAST 1-2 more days not getting above 40 here in Houston this winter. JB was right on with the last cold shot here in Texas (I emailed him the weekend before and he predicted a cold, windy and cloudy Thursday with highs in the middle 30s....HE WAS RIGHT ON) so when he says cold over much of the nation between Dec. 20th and Dec. 30th...I listen. The GFS is horrible at long range forecasting, so I would not buy too much into it in in the long range...for example: It showed the last cold shot at 15 days out, then lost it for a good 5 days, then brought it back again, but as a much weaker shot, then lost it again, and finally showed it again when we were only a few days out. The GFS likes to flip-flop. I see many more cold days ahead, and I think we should all be prepared for a few more extreme blasts from the north this winter.

[Burn1]

Actually long term beyond Christmas....Jan,Feb,March show much of the country, except East Coast with a much greater than normal chance of having above average temps...Texas in particular is looking at a very
moderate winter temps wise, especially after xmas

[Portastorm]

Sunday morning. Not sure what to think about the period 6-10 days out.

The GFS ensembles looked a lot warmer yesterday than previous. GFS operational runs still stay zonal, although today's 6z run blows up a big Southern Plains snowstorm around Dec. 21st.

European looks warmer (more seasonal) as well at 5-7 days.

Perhaps this next weekend will indeed be seasonal for those of us in the southern Plains and the threat of another major cold front is off the playing field ... at least until after Dec. 20th.

[aggiecutter]

The 0z run of the EURO sticks the trough back into the plains next weekend. This will continue to happen as long as the AO stays strongly negative and the NOA neutral to slightly negative.
Day 6...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.107.gif

Day 7...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[Portastorm]

I guess I was looking at the 12z run from Sat night? Your links and the Euro run referenced looks a lot colder!!

Is that the actual polar vortex just north of the Great Lakes?? Yikes!

[txwatcher91]

The 0z run of the EURO sticks the trough back into the plains next weekend. This will continue to happen as long as the AO stays strongly negative and the NOA neutral to slightly negative.
Day 6...

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.107.gif

Day 7...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

Looks pretty cold to me. Any chances of snow here from that? Also, howcome the computer models show it so cold,but yet my 10 day forecast shows it around normal? It also shows moisture for around the 17th-19th. If the cold air is cold enough, could we get snow here in Greenville,NC? I can't wait to see the first snow flakes.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/c ... topnav_flu

[aggiecutter]

FYI. Bastardi in his column this afternoon predicts more snow and ice for south Texas between now and Christmas. Maybe as early as next weekend. The arctic air returns to Texas next saturday, with extreme cold coming the following week east of the Rockies into Christmas week.