The 12/15-16/2007 Snowfall: Initial Thoughts

[btangy]

GFS looks like it's handling the short term pre-frontal mess that's causing the severe weather over FL right now better than the NAM. I'm still concerned Olga may be more of a wildcard than the models currently think as its energy may allow the secondary formation to occur sooner and take over faster, but we'll see how this plays out in the 00Z runs.

[donsutherland1]

A few changes are in order given the modeling that points to a stronger push of warmer air aloft into portions of New York State and New England. Corrected for Ottawa. The figure should have read 10"-16" not 7"-14".

My final snowfall estimates are as follows:

Albany: 4”-8”
Allentown: <1”
Bangor: 5”-10”
Boston: 3”-6”
Burlington: 10”-16”
Caribou: 10”-16”
Cleveland: 5”-10”
Concord: 5”-10”
Detroit: 7”-14”
Hartford: 1"-3"
New York City: <1”
Newark: <1”
Montreal: 12”-18” (30.5 cm-45.7 cm)
Ottawa: 10”-16” (25.4 cm-40.6 cm)
Pittsburgh: 2”-4”
Portland: 5”-10”
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”
Providence: 1”-3”
Scranton: 1”-3”
Syracuse: 12”-18”
Toronto: 7”-14” (17.8 cm-35.6 cm)
Worcester: 3”-6”

[tropicana]

im so excited, i can burst (luckiliy i'm not a balloon) haaa
for toronto, they are saying in the media the largest snowfall total for 1 day expected for any December day since 1944.
Already, Toronto has been hit my persistent *LAKE EFFECT* snow all day long today, windswept and it continues tonight. This is well ahead of the main storm, and it has been snowing persistently for the last 12 hours.

[JBG]

im so excited, i can burst (luckiliy i'm not a balloon) haaa
for toronto, they are saying in the media the largest snowfall total for 1 day expected for any December day since 1944.
Already, Toronto has been hit my persistent *LAKE EFFECT* snow all day long today, windswept and it continues tonight. This is well ahead of the main storm, and it has been snowing persistently for the last 12 hours.

Lake effect? Doesn't a southeasterly wind usually, at this time of year, warm up the atmosphere too much to allow the precipitation to remain snow? Also, didn't Toronto get a major dump around December 9-10, 1992? I remember Pearson Airport being closed.

[terstorm1012]

this storm was awful. there's 70,000 customers in my area without power (meaning it's 2 to 3 times that number).

I wish we would have received the snow instead of the ice.

[Praxus]

We got about 10 inches in Toronto. I'd say this storm was over-hyped somewhat, it wasn't that bad, unless you were on the road today.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

Just 11/22 (50.0%) of stations verified within the forecast range for my final forecast. 7/11 (63.6%) of those falling outside the forecast range had errors of 1.0” or greater. The largest error was 2.6” at Providence. The average error for the stations falling outside the forecast range was 1.3”.

From 12/14/2007 2:20 pm:
Albany: 7”-14”; Actual: 8.6”; Within range
Allentown: 1”-3”; Actual: 1.8”; Within range
Bangor: 6”-12”; Actual: 5.5; Error: 0.5”
Boston: 3”-6”; Actual: 7.6”; Error: 1.6”
Burlington: 10”-16”; Actual: 14.4”; Within range
Caribou: 10”-16”; Actual: 17.2”; Error: 1.2”
Cleveland: 5”-10”; Actual: 6.4”; Within range
Concord: 5”-10”; Actual: 7.1”; Within range
Detroit: 5”-10”; Actual: 9.0”; Within range
New York City: <1”; Actual: 1.0”; Error: 0.1”
Newark: <1”; Actual: 1.2”; Error: 0.3”
Montreal: 7”-14” (17.8 cm-35.6 cm); Actual: 12.8” (32.6 cm); Within range
Ottawa: 5”-10” (12.7 cm-25.4 cm); Actual: 14.0” (35.6 cm); Error: 4.0” (10.2 cm)
Pittsburgh: 2”-4”; Actual: 0.1”; Error: 1.9”
Portland: 5”-10”; Actual: 9.0”; Within range
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”; Actual: 4.0” (Tivoli, NY); Within range
Providence: 1”-3”; Actual: 5.6”; Error: 2.6”
Scranton: 3”-6”; Actual: 1.0”; Error: 2.0”
Syracuse: 12”-18”; Actual: 19.5”; Error: 1.5”
Toronto: 7”-14” (17.8 cm-35.6 cm); Actual: 7.9” (20.0 cm); Within range
Worcester: 3”-6”; Actual: 8.4”; Error: 2.4”

From: 12/15/2007 1:00 am:
Albany: 7”-14”; Actual: 8.6”; Within range
Allentown: 1”-3”; Actual: 1.8”; Within range
Bangor: 5”-10”; Actual: 5.5”; Within range
Boston: 3”-6”; Actual: 7.6”; Error: 1.6”
Burlington: 10”-16”; Actual: 14.4”; Within range
Caribou: 10”-16”; Actual: 17.2”; Error: 1.2”
Cleveland: 6”-12”; Actual: 6.4”; Within range
Concord: 5”-10”; Actual: 7.1”; Within range
Detroit: 6”-12”; Actual: 9.0”; Within range
Hartford: 2”-4”; Actual: 4.0”; Within range
New York City: <1”; Actual: 1.0”; Error: 0.1”
Newark: <1”; Actual: 1.2”; Error: 0.3”
Montreal: 12”-18” (30.5 cm-45.7 cm); Actual: 12.8” (32.6 cm); Within range
Ottawa: 7”-14” (17.8 cm-35.6 cm); Actual: 14.0” (35.6 cm); Within range
Pittsburgh: 2”-4”; Actual: 0.1”; Error: 1.9”
Portland: 5”-10”; Actual: 9.0”; Within range
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”; Actual: 4.0” (Tivoli, NY); Within range
Providence: 1”-3”; Actual: 5.6”; Error: 2.6”
Scranton: 1”-3”; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Syracuse: 12”-18”; Actual: 19.5”; Error: 1.5”
Toronto: 7”-14” (17.8 cm-35.6 cm); Actual: 7.9” (20.0 cm); Within range
Worcester: 3”-6”; Actual: 8.4”; Error: 2.4”

From: 12/15/2007 7:05 pm:
Albany: 4”-8”; Actual: 8.6”; Error: 0.6”
Allentown: <1”; Actual: 1.8”; Error: 0.9”
Bangor: 5”-10”; Actual: 5.5”; Within range
Boston: 3”-6”; Actual: 7.6”; Error: 1.6”
Burlington: 10”-16”; Actual: 14.4”; Within range
Caribou: 10”-16”; Actual: 17.2”; Error: 1.2”
Cleveland: 5”-10”; Actual: 6.4”; Within range
Concord: 5”-10”; Actual: 7.1”; Within range
Detroit: 7”-14”; Actual: 9.0”; Within range
Hartford: 1”-3”; Actual: 4.0”; Error: 1.0”
New York City: <1”; Actual: 1.0”; Error: 0.1”
Newark: <1”; Actual: 1.2”; Error: 0.3”
Montreal: 12”-18” (30.5 cm-45.7 cm); Actual: 12.8” (32.6 cm); Within range
Ottawa: 10”-16” (25.4 cm-40.6 cm); Actual: 14.0” (35.6 cm); Within range
Pittsburgh: 2”-4”; Actual: 0.1”; Error: 1.9”
Portland: 5”-10”; Actual: 9.0”; Within range
Poughkeepsie: 2”-4”; Actual: 4.0” (Tivoli, NY); Within range
Providence: 1”-3”; Actual: 5.6”; Error: 2.6”
Scranton: 1”-3”; Actual: 1.0”; Within range
Syracuse: 12”-18”; Actual: 19.5”; Error: 1.5”
Toronto: 7”-14” (17.8 cm-35.6 cm); Actual: 7.9” (20.0 cm); Within range
Worcester: 3”-6”; Actual: 8.4”; Error: 2.4”