Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cerlin
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#101 Postby Cerlin » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:07 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:So if memory serves me correctly a week or so ago this weekend looked like a possible snow storm around today. Thinking on it we had cold, last night, and now we have rain today. Just a timing thing again.

Yeah, we keep getting these glancing blows of semi cold air either preceding or following precipitation. Models line it up until about 10 days out where they drop it
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#102 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:16 pm

One of Heat Miser's biggest fears is a sudden stratwarm that will cause the extreme cold to come here, that is exactly what happened in February 2021, with the Stratwarm the month before (January 2021)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#103 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:38 pm

Wxman57, you will enjoy this winter most likely :D . Your wall looks pretty good. this winter appears to favor ridging that will keep the cold air out of most of texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#104 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:21 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:Wxman57, you will enjoy this winter most likely :D . Your wall looks pretty good. this winter appears to favor ridging that will keep the cold air out of most of texas.


I don’t think the whole winter will be above average. We should see a few cold shots.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#105 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:28 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Wxman57, you will enjoy this winter most likely :D . Your wall looks pretty good. this winter appears to favor ridging that will keep the cold air out of most of texas.


I don’t think the whole winter will be above average. We should see a few cold shots.


There are always "cold shots" each winter. My favorite winter was 1985-1986, when it was sunny and mild/warm all winter. Highs hit 90 in February, allowing me to go swimming at my apartment complex. I don't think this is shaping up to be a similar winter. La Nina winters are frequently warmer and drier than average, but it doesn't mean there won't be a chance of some significant cold (and maybe ice) at some point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#106 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:23 pm

18z GFS has colder air closer to Texas at 7-10 days out compared to the 12z GFS
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#107 Postby AustinTXResident » Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:18 pm

Iceresistance wrote:One of Heat Miser's biggest fears is a sudden stratwarm that will cause the extreme cold to come here, that is exactly what happened in February 2021, with the Stratwarm the month before (January 2021)


Actually, that's not what caused the February 2021 Arctic outbreak. Instead, stretching of the polar vortex was the cause.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#108 Postby Cerlin » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:09 pm

AustinTXResident wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:One of Heat Miser's biggest fears is a sudden stratwarm that will cause the extreme cold to come here, that is exactly what happened in February 2021, with the Stratwarm the month before (January 2021)


Actually, that's not what caused the February 2021 Arctic outbreak. Instead, stretching of the polar vortex was the cause.

You guys are both right! SSW events cause a weakening of the polar vortex, and weak polar vortexes can easily split and stretch as we saw in February 2021. One causes the other.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#109 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:58 pm

February 2021 was a combination of an SSW weakening the PV allowing it to stretch and displace as well as a -EPO regime. Either one on it's own can bring the cold. Both of them together can lead to what we just saw and other extreme events. Frankly I don't think we want to see that again, especially with how much cold has stacked up in NW Canada and Alaska. (Also I have like have as much winter clothes now than I did a few years ago.)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#110 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:40 am

I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#111 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:16 am

Weather Dude wrote:I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.


I'm like you on this. Cold and snow is fun, but not life threatening cold and no power for 2 plus days. I was ready for the most part. But it still sucked.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#112 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:47 am

Weather Dude wrote:I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.


Note that there was little comparison temperature-wise to the 1983 and 1989 severe cold across Texas. The cold was more extreme and longer-lasting in each of those events. Never had any power issues back then, though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#113 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:49 am

This is what Srainhoutx said in Wx Infinity not too long ago

Srainhoutx (WX Infinity) wrote:Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#114 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:58 am

wxman57 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I'd be perfectly fine if we never had a Feb 2021 repeat ever again. That was beyond brutal.


Note that there was little comparison temperature-wise to the 1983 and 1989 severe cold across Texas. The cold was more extreme and longer-lasting in each of those events. Never had any power issues back then, though.


https://www.tsl.texas.gov/ref/abouttx/census.html

Our population has grown quite a bit since then and newer builds are not as gas dependent for heat it seems. Well, at least homes I was looking at 5 years ago. Most homes I've looked at or been in from that decade were gas for heat which is way less draw on the grid. Build, build, build but don't increase power demands for output and redundancy.

It appears we have doubled in population since 1980-1990.

All those Californians and folks from the northern midwest and NE moving in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#115 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:51 am

Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#116 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 29, 2021 10:58 am

wxman57 wrote:Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.


The EPO was extremely positive & is being positive longer than the models expected, that's why the models have been trying to bring in the cold in the long range, only to back it off completely.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#117 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.

But there’s a big -EPO at 384hr! This time it’ll verify for sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#118 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:35 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Latest GFS runs are saying "never mind" about significant TX cold the next two weeks. Not a big surprise.

But there’s a big -EPO at 384hr! This time it’ll verify for sure.


The PNA is also Negative as well.

Image
https://s8.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#119 Postby aggiecutter » Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:08 pm

Image
Last edited by aggiecutter on Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:38 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#120 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:53 pm

I'm almost certain that the 12Z GFS 384hr panel will be accurate. Yeah, right. Maybe a light freeze for D-FW on the 9th.
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