Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#201 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:05 pm

There is a Winter Storm Watch for *double checking to make sure I'm reading this right* Hawaii right now, the weather is seriously messed up!

Now it's a Blizzard Warning for Hawaii!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#202 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:There is a Winter Storm Watch for *double checking to make sure I'm reading this right* Hawaii right now, the weather is seriously messed up!

Now it's a Blizzard Warning for Hawaii!


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... &map_y=201

Yikes, basically a Hurricane. It's at 13,000 ft but wow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#203 Postby Astromanía » Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:50 am

This is pathetic, deciduous trees don't even need to lose their leaves for the sum.. I mean winter lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#204 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:34 am

The cold front for Monday is coming in a little cooler. Might have a couple days in the 50's. I need some cold air to get into the Christmas mood!!! It's difficult to think about Christmas when it is 80 degrees. Yuck.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#205 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:46 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:There is a Winter Storm Watch for *double checking to make sure I'm reading this right* Hawaii right now, the weather is seriously messed up!

Now it's a Blizzard Warning for Hawaii!


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... &map_y=201

Yikes, basically a Hurricane. It's at 13,000 ft but wow.


Of course, that's for the summits on the Big Island, where people do go skiing. My coworker just started his 1 week vacation there yesterday. He's on Oahu, though. Temps above 80 near sea level but quite cold atop Mauna Kea.

https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mauna-Kea
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#206 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:01 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:There is a Winter Storm Watch for *double checking to make sure I'm reading this right* Hawaii right now, the weather is seriously messed up!

Now it's a Blizzard Warning for Hawaii!


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... &map_y=201

Yikes, basically a Hurricane. It's at 13,000 ft but wow.


Days of 120mph gusts?!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#207 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:33 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:There is a Winter Storm Watch for *double checking to make sure I'm reading this right* Hawaii right now, the weather is seriously messed up!

Now it's a Blizzard Warning for Hawaii!


https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... &map_y=201

Yikes, basically a Hurricane. It's at 13,000 ft but wow.


Days of 120mph gusts?!


100 mph on the warning right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#208 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:34 am

gpsnowman wrote:The cold front for Monday is coming in a little cooler. Might have a couple days in the 50's. I need some cold air to get into the Christmas mood!!! It's difficult to think about Christmas when it is 80 degrees. Yuck.


The hope is with a very cold source region any intrusions might have a good punch to it!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#209 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:04 am

Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:The cold front for Monday is coming in a little cooler. Might have a couple days in the 50's. I need some cold air to get into the Christmas mood!!! It's difficult to think about Christmas when it is 80 degrees. Yuck.


The hope is with a very cold source region any intrusions might have a good punch to it!


Looks like one day (Tuesday) with lows in the mid 40s there in DFW next week. Both the GFS & Euro are predicting lows near freezing up there next Sunday. GFS keeps trying to forecast snow in the TX Panhandle and OK. Euro says "not so fast, the snow will be confined to Kansas". GFS will lose again. Meanwhile, we'll enjoy the pleasant but a little chilly highs near 80 here in Houston through the weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#210 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:47 am

wxman57 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:The cold front for Monday is coming in a little cooler. Might have a couple days in the 50's. I need some cold air to get into the Christmas mood!!! It's difficult to think about Christmas when it is 80 degrees. Yuck.


The hope is with a very cold source region any intrusions might have a good punch to it!


Looks like one day (Tuesday) with lows in the mid 40s there in DFW next week. Both the GFS & Euro are predicting lows near freezing up there next Sunday. GFS keeps trying to forecast snow in the TX Panhandle and OK. Euro says "not so fast, the snow will be confined to Kansas". GFS will lose again. Meanwhile, we'll enjoy the pleasant but a little chilly highs near 80 here in Houston through the weekend.


I'm expecting Highs near 80 as well, it's hot for this time of year
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#211 Postby Cerlin » Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:39 am

Let me preface this by saying the GFS has had a huge tendency to be wrong over the last month or so. I concede that.

However, the GFS does have 2 runs in a row with a pretty decent snowstorm less than 10 days out, with the 6z run inching ever so close towards DFW. Not to mention the CMC and the Euro have snow in Kansas/Northern OK at that same weekend. Runs are certainly not as bleak as they were a few days ago.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#212 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:42 am

Cerlin wrote:Let me preface this by saying the GFS has had a huge tendency to be wrong over the last month or so. I concede that.

However, the GFS does have 2 runs in a row with a pretty decent snowstorm less than 10 days out, with the 6z run inching ever so close towards DFW. Not to mention the CMC and the Euro have snow in Kansas/Northern OK at that same weekend. Runs are certainly not as bleak as they were a few days ago.


I was about to take note of that! Lol

Either way, I've placed Saturday to Monday (12.11.2021-12.13.2021) as a possible time for snow for Oklahoma due to increasing model consistency of snow in that time period.
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EDIT: Forgot to mention that some 12z GEFS members want snow for Oklahoma 3-5 days out.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#213 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:53 am

Cerlin wrote:Let me preface this by saying the GFS has had a huge tendency to be wrong over the last month or so. I concede that.

However, the GFS does have 2 runs in a row with a pretty decent snowstorm less than 10 days out, with the 6z run inching ever so close towards DFW. Not to mention the CMC and the Euro have snow in Kansas/Northern OK at that same weekend. Runs are certainly not as bleak as they were a few days ago.


I can buy some stock into. IF a couple things remain in place.

1. Trough needs to remain intact. The guidance has been trending stronger with it the past few runs.
2. It is able to tap into surface cold from the North with a good surface high.

It's definitely a little intriguing. Aleutian wave-break ridge certainly does merit some deepening of systems. But that's what we're relying on, the storm to provide.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#214 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Let me preface this by saying the GFS has had a huge tendency to be wrong over the last month or so. I concede that.

However, the GFS does have 2 runs in a row with a pretty decent snowstorm less than 10 days out, with the 6z run inching ever so close towards DFW. Not to mention the CMC and the Euro have snow in Kansas/Northern OK at that same weekend. Runs are certainly not as bleak as they were a few days ago.


I can buy some stock into. IF a couple things remain in place.

1. Trough needs to remain intact. The guidance has been trending stronger with it the past few runs.
2. It is able to tap into surface cold from the North with a good surface high.

It's definitely a little intriguing. Aleutian wave-break ridge certainly does merit some deepening of systems. But that's what we're relying on, the storm to provide.


This is the Make-or-break for snow for Mid-December for the Southern Plains.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#215 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Let me preface this by saying the GFS has had a huge tendency to be wrong over the last month or so. I concede that.

However, the GFS does have 2 runs in a row with a pretty decent snowstorm less than 10 days out, with the 6z run inching ever so close towards DFW. Not to mention the CMC and the Euro have snow in Kansas/Northern OK at that same weekend. Runs are certainly not as bleak as they were a few days ago.


I can buy some stock into. IF a couple things remain in place.

1. Trough needs to remain intact. The guidance has been trending stronger with it the past few runs.
2. It is able to tap into surface cold from the North with a good surface high.

It's definitely a little intriguing. Aleutian wave-break ridge certainly does merit some deepening of systems. But that's what we're relying on, the storm to provide.


This is the Make-or-break for snow for Mid-December for the Southern Plains.


There are two years I've been looking at. 1984 December where the Aleutian ridge/+AO started the same but the western trough pinched and we torched the rest of the month. However in January a big Aleutian trof set off a massive SSW to bring the Jan-Feb 1985 cold outbreak.

Last night I made a post about December 1990, if we take that path then by mid month the cold decides to spill due to its power and -PNA trough from the west.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#216 Postby Cerlin » Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:35 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Let me preface this by saying the GFS has had a huge tendency to be wrong over the last month or so. I concede that.

However, the GFS does have 2 runs in a row with a pretty decent snowstorm less than 10 days out, with the 6z run inching ever so close towards DFW. Not to mention the CMC and the Euro have snow in Kansas/Northern OK at that same weekend. Runs are certainly not as bleak as they were a few days ago.


I can buy some stock into. IF a couple things remain in place.

1. Trough needs to remain intact. The guidance has been trending stronger with it the past few runs.
2. It is able to tap into surface cold from the North with a good surface high.

It's definitely a little intriguing. Aleutian wave-break ridge certainly does merit some deepening of systems. But that's what we're relying on, the storm to provide.

Totally agree. Your first bullet point has been the big issue the GFS has been struggling with. More than 7 days out, it’s been overestimating the power of those troughs. The majority of the troughs up to this point have fizzled out before they could reach TX or been weak shortwaves at best. This could be the first one that really sustains itself well with moisture potential.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#217 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:41 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
I can buy some stock into. IF a couple things remain in place.

1. Trough needs to remain intact. The guidance has been trending stronger with it the past few runs.
2. It is able to tap into surface cold from the North with a good surface high.

It's definitely a little intriguing. Aleutian wave-break ridge certainly does merit some deepening of systems. But that's what we're relying on, the storm to provide.


This is the Make-or-break for snow for Mid-December for the Southern Plains.


There are two years I've been looking at. 1984 December where the Aleutian ridge/+AO started the same but the western trough pinched and we torched the rest of the month. However in January a big Aleutian trof set off a massive SSW to bring the Jan-Feb 1985 cold outbreak.

Last night I made a post about December 1990, if we take that path then by mid month the cold decides to spill due to its power and -PNA trough from the west.


@BigJoeBastardi — Now here is something that is interesting. Vortex split at 50mb Dec 7 very close to Dec 27 1984,1985. Severe eastern outbreaks mid and late Jan both years ( 1st one was Reagan inaug outbreak, second Challenger disaster Current one would be early Jan correlation.”
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#218 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:54 pm

Anyone who has Pivotal Weather Plus can see the 6z & 18z Euro model.

12z Euro is showing snow across Kansas & Missouri, & as far south as Northern Oklahoma.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#219 Postby harp » Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:59 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Anyone who has Pivotal Weather Plus can see the 6z & 18z Euro model.

What does it reveal?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#220 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 03, 2021 3:08 pm

harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Anyone who has Pivotal Weather Plus can see the 6z & 18z Euro model.

What does it reveal?

I don't have Pivotal Weather Plus, but I've heard that it contains +3 Hour data to +144 Hours.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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