Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#321 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:32 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The The O low, which i cant spell, is expected to setup in Eastern Russia soon. This will be great for pumping heat into the Arctic/causing chaos.

I think it is spelled OshKosh B'gosh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#322 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:44 am

Hey Storm2k Winter gang, hope everyone is doing well, it's been awhile!!...boring start to winter so far but as previous posters have been discussing, things are looking really promising towards end of month/start of New Year. EPO/WPO tank, MJO 7-8-1 with brutal cold building in Western Canada. What's not to like ???

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#323 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:08 am

Some snippets per Larry Cosgrove:

"But this being December, and much of the Northern Hemisphere and Canada dealing with a deep snowpack and less (or no) sunlight, it is justifiable to ask, how long can this last? A Siberian cold dome will beget an Arctic vortex, which in turn will favor a slow build of ridging in and near the North Pole. So on the flip side, after a nice spell of low heating bills, another deep 500MB cAk gyre will be favored to take shape. Before the end of 2021.
My suspicion is to follow the ensemble forecasts, which take one of the storms in the sequence over the Pacific Basin, and break the warm pattern. The process will be painfully slow, as I have warned you for a while now. The operational ECMWF scheme gets an Arctic boundary into the Upper Midwest and Ontario by December 18, but the push could come a little later. Remember that snowmelt under the mild regime will lessen or disappear, and that may frustrate the cold advection.

But when all is said and done, a large cold motherlode should be centered over James Bay. This transition will probably be accompanied by a storm moving out of the Intermountain Region toward the St. Lawrence Valley December 23-26. At that time, maybe Santa will reward you with a week or so of bitter cold and frozen precipitation in the Midwest and Northeast. Then a January Thaw in the second week of the new year."
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#324 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:19 pm

We are definitely liable for a big Arctic outbreak if the -EPO pans out. Cold source is loaded still so all it will take is a little Pacific relaxation and the Great Plains can get dumped on even in a -PNA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#325 Postby snowballzzz » Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:We are definitely liable for a big Arctic outbreak if the -EPO pans out. Cold source is loaded still so all it will take is a little Pacific relaxation and the Great Plains can get dumped on even in a -PNA.


I'm dreaming of a white Christmas... At least a cool Christmas!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#326 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:31 pm

I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#327 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg


I'm thinking we get a little taste either on or just after Christmas. Then the cold mass in Canada is lurking...what will it do?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#328 Postby snowballzzz » Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:34 pm

12Z GFS showing major cold in Canada, dropping into the middle of the Country on Christmas eve. Far out, but we can dream. Is this a sign of our -EPO taking place?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#329 Postby harp » Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#330 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:45 pm

harp wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….


Just remember that JB only thinks about Pennsylvania when he says cold is coming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#331 Postby WinterMax » Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:09 pm

wxman57 wrote:
harp wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….


Just remember that JB only thinks about Pennsylvania when he says cold is coming.


Bets on how many runs that artic plunge at the end of the 12z makes before it disappears? Lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#332 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:11 pm

Looks like the dam bursts at the end of the 12z GFS. That would be some MAJOR cold charging down the front range of the rockies. Lock it in!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#333 Postby snowballzzz » Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:13 pm

WinterMax wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
harp wrote:To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….


Just remember that JB only thinks about Pennsylvania when he says cold is coming.


Bets on how many runs that artic plunge at the end of the 12z makes before it disappears? Lol


next run bet its gone lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#334 Postby harp » Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:28 pm

It could very well be gone on the next run. That's very far out. I guess my point is that it follows the general timeline of when several on here have pointed out the MJO shift, etc.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#335 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:16 pm

The MJO is on the move, posed to move to Phase 7 later this week or next week.

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#336 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:17 pm

Current from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control:

Near/Record highs possible Thursday and Friday.

Weak cold front that moved through the area on Monday morning will return northward as a warm front today. At the same time upper level heights will build over the region and this combined with warm air advection off the Gulf of Mexico will result in warming temperatures. How warm the area gets will likely be determined by the amount of cloud cover on both Thursday and Friday. If you think it has been unseasonably warm for the start of December you are right with temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees above normal.

Warm air advection will begin later this morning ushering a Gulf air mass back into the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70’s today, maybe warmer where low level clouds are able to break and this is most likely off to the north and west where moisture is less. Coastal locations will likely remain cloudy and even some sea fog along the beaches. Strong warm air advection will be in place on Thursday with high pushing the low 80’s over the region and dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60’s. Warmest day will be Friday as a strong cold front moves into TX and strong warm air advection continues over the area. Highs likely in the low to mid 80’s which will approach the all-time December high of 85. Depending on how quickly cloud cover scatters out on Friday morning, record highs will be possible. Areas SW of our area will likely reach the upper 80’s and low 90’s along the Rio Grande plains into S TX.

Cold Front:

A strong cold front will plow across TX late Friday into early Saturday. A think line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this front, but more importantly a significant drop in temperatures. Front should be near the coast early Saturday with a cold air mass and strong cold air advection pouring into the region on Saturday. Gusty north winds will drive temperatures from the 70’s early into the 50’s during the day. Showers will the front will clear the area early with clearing skies from north to south during the day. Cold Saturday night with lows falling into the 30’s for many areas and high pressure will be nearby on Sunday and with full sun only warming to near 60.

High pressure shifts east on Monday and return to SE winds and once again a quick warm up into the 70’s for much of next week is expected. Through next weekend there are no indications of any sustained cold air intrusions. In fact next week will feature an expansive area of very warm weather across much of the US
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#337 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:22 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The MJO is on the move, posed to move to Phase 7 later this week or next week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif


It's a fairly amped MJO wave as well. Couple of WPAC typhoons may feed into the Okhotsk low region. Helps pump more -EPO. We needed something to change it up and this could be it. Cold will start in the west and bleed east. With -pna East of the MS river may miss out early but west is in good position.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#338 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The MJO is on the move, posed to move to Phase 7 later this week or next week.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif


It's a fairly amped MJO wave as well. Couple of WPAC typhoons may feed into the Okhotsk low region. Helps pump more -EPO. We needed something to change it up and this could be it. Cold will start in the west and bleed east. With -pna East of the MS river may miss out early but west is in good position.


The GFS has powerful Typhoons into the Philippines, but there is always a chance they'll recurve, we can hope that they will recurve away from land.

And the PNA is looking more towards Negative for the next couple of weeks as well, we're definitely in a good position for this.

orangeblood mentioned that the EPO may turn negative in the next several days as shown from the Euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#339 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:19 pm

Before all that though, clouds have kept it a bit chilly and cool in the Red River valley. But all around Texas the anomalous warmth is lurking. Wxman57 has (for the moment) taken control of the thermostat.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#340 Postby Cerlin » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:39 pm

-30 degrees in Canada at the end of that 12z GFS...sign me up!
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