Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2621 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:47 pm

The moisture is so missing. Pretty terrible drought and we're in a feedback loop it seems. Screw the cold w/o any of that
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2622 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:48 pm

Haris wrote:The moisture is so missing. Pretty terrible drought and we're in a feedback loop it seems. Screw the cold w/o any of that


Yeah exactly I am tired of dry cold and watching snowstorms elsewhere. Couldn't even cover the grass here Saturday
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2623 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z gfs lost its mind. 7 days out again.

Will say this is the same period CMC lost its mind earlier today.


Yep but they’re all going to that similar 5h look even the ICON…something could be brewing

Temperatures at 3pm next Wednesday :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2624 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:58 pm

I guess at least cold isn’t an issue for the foreseeable future—just gotta see if that moisture will ever pan out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2625 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:09 am

Cerlin wrote:I guess at least cold isn’t an issue for the foreseeable future—just gotta see if that moisture will ever pan out.


I just hope we don't keep wasting it. It's not gonna last forever. It kind of irritates me to see a high in the 20s and zero precip and it's not even the first time this month

And yes I know February is usually our month but is the pattern still gonna be good then? That's my fear that we revert back
Last edited by Brent on Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2626 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:12 am

Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I guess at least cold isn’t an issue for the foreseeable future—just gotta see if that moisture will ever pan out.


I just hope we don't keep wasting it. It's not gonna last forever. It kind of irritates me to see a high in the 20s and zero precip and it's not even the first time this month


That front on the GFS looks to be indicating a neutral PNA, does it not??
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2627 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:18 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I guess at least cold isn’t an issue for the foreseeable future—just gotta see if that moisture will ever pan out.


I just hope we don't keep wasting it. It's not gonna last forever. It kind of irritates me to see a high in the 20s and zero precip and it's not even the first time this month


That front on the GFS looks to be indicating a neutral PNA, does it not??


Honestly I don't know I do know the GFS is trying to spit out some flakes Wednesday here but like where's the real moisture? I wanna move past flakes :lol:

The other storm at 200 hours? Let's see if it holds up :lol: so far everything looks better in fantasy land
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2628 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:25 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
I just hope we don't keep wasting it. It's not gonna last forever. It kind of irritates me to see a high in the 20s and zero precip and it's not even the first time this month


That front on the GFS looks to be indicating a neutral PNA, does it not??


Honestly I don't know I do know the GFS is trying to spit out some flakes Wednesday here but like where's the real moisture? I wanna move past flakes :lol:

The other storm at 200 hours? Let's see if it holds up :lol: so far everything looks better in fantasy land


I think the closer you are to water there always seems like there’s more moisture to work with. Oklahoma and much of the midsection of the country doesn’t really get much precip annually.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2629 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:27 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That front on the GFS looks to be indicating a neutral PNA, does it not??


Honestly I don't know I do know the GFS is trying to spit out some flakes Wednesday here but like where's the real moisture? I wanna move past flakes :lol:

The other storm at 200 hours? Let's see if it holds up :lol: so far everything looks better in fantasy land


I think the closer you are to water there always seems like there’s more moisture to work with. Oklahoma and much of the midsection of the country doesn’t really get much precip annually.


We average more precip than Dallas lol :lol: I think being east helps us because of course east of here averages more precip
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2630 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:50 am

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Honestly I don't know I do know the GFS is trying to spit out some flakes Wednesday here but like where's the real moisture? I wanna move past flakes :lol:

The other storm at 200 hours? Let's see if it holds up :lol: so far everything looks better in fantasy land


I think the closer you are to water there always seems like there’s more moisture to work with. Oklahoma and much of the midsection of the country doesn’t really get much precip annually.


We average more precip than Dallas lol :lol: I think being east helps us because of course east of here averages more precip


Dang I didn’t know that. But yeah I’m actually jealous of the east always getting all the fun basically every single year. And basically all year around too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2631 Postby Haris » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:12 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I think the closer you are to water there always seems like there’s more moisture to work with. Oklahoma and much of the midsection of the country doesn’t really get much precip annually.


We average more precip than Dallas lol :lol: I think being east helps us because of course east of here averages more precip


Dang I didn’t know that. But yeah I’m actually jealous of the east always getting all the fun basically every single year. And basically all year around too.



Texas is the transitional zone between the arid climate to our west and the tropical wet east. Hence our patterns feature characteristics of both and hence bipolar.

It makes living here interesting but also frustrating. If you’re anywhere on the eastern half of the U.S, count on experiencing each season with stable precip. Not the same here
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2632 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:13 am

Haris wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
We average more precip than Dallas lol :lol: I think being east helps us because of course east of here averages more precip


Dang I didn’t know that. But yeah I’m actually jealous of the east always getting all the fun basically every single year. And basically all year around too.



Texas is the transitional zone between the arid climate to our west and the tropical wet east. Hence our patterns feature characteristics of both and hence bipolar.

It makes living here interesting but also frustrating. If you’re anywhere on the eastern half of the U.S, count on experiencing each season with stable precip. Not the same here


Yeah before I moved to Texas I never understood the excitement over rain :lol: in Alabama it would even rain daily in the summer a lot. Of course the humidity was always dreadful but that was the tradeoff. We never had long rainless streaks like we've had here

Now granted over there a lot of winters were like Dallas.... It was never guaranteed to snow and I can remember a lot it never did

Oh and just looking at here vs Texas... A lot more trees and hills
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2633 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:48 am

Well the 0z runs got a little interesting tonight.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2634 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 18, 2022 2:18 am

Brent wrote:
Cerlin wrote:I guess at least cold isn’t an issue for the foreseeable future—just gotta see if that moisture will ever pan out.


I just hope we don't keep wasting it. It's not gonna last forever. It kind of irritates me to see a high in the 20s and zero precip and it's not even the first time this month

And yes I know February is usually our month but is the pattern still gonna be good then? That's my fear that we revert back


The pattern may revert back but I don't think results will be same. -PNA in Feb is usually a bit different than December. The Nina is fading quickly, there is hardly any cold water left west of 180 (IDL).

EURO does the 5h dance with the GFS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2635 Postby gboudx » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:17 am

From jeff regarding wintry precip for SETX.

I don't mind the cold even if there's no precip. I view it as a nice respite from the hell that usually awaits in the summer.

Strong cold front will move across the region Wednesday evening.

Slight chance of a mixture of precipitation Thursday night over portions of the area.

Today and tomorrow will be warm as southerly winds bring warmth and humidity back into the region ahead of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening. Enough moisture may be in place for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front Wednesday evening and a few could become strong or severe. This is a very marginal threat for severe weather as parameters are on the low side and will favor areas near the coast and around Galveston Bay and SE toward Chambers County.

Thursday:
Strong cold air advection will onset and expect temperatures to remain in the 30’s and low 40’s for the day. NAM guidance has been trending colder which is usual in these sort of cold air intrusions and would not be surprised if most areas remained in the 30’s all day. WSW/SW flow aloft will remain in place over top of the building surface cold dome and a short wave trough will approach Thursday afternoon and evening from the west. This trough will spread lift across the region and work with the remaining limited moisture to produce light precipitation. Strong northerly winds will be in place on Thursday resulting in wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s over the region.

Thursday night:
Warm layer (nose) noted in forecast sounding Thursday afternoon begins to erode over the area with profiles becoming more conducive for sleet or a mixture of sleet/rain/freezing rain mainly north of HWY 105. Moisture is still available in the evening hours, but between midnight and 600am on Friday the moisture begins to shift southward and drier air from the north works in. Surface freezing line will progress southward on Thursday evening and reach a line from roughly Huntsville to Hempstead to Columbus by late evening and possibly as far south as I-10 by Friday morning. Think the greatest potential for the moisture and cold air to overlap will be NW of a line from Livingston to Columbus where a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet will be possible. Toward I-10 including the northern portions of Harris County sleet could mix with the light rain on Thursday night and there may be a brief period where light rain/drizzle could briefly freeze if the 32 line can get into northern Harris County…think this is slightly more likely into Waller and Montgomery Counties.

Impacts:
Ground temperatures will be warm on Thursday and Thursday night given mid 70’s likely on Wednesday and only about 24 hours of cold air across these surfaces. Elevated surfaces (trees, powerlines, rooftops, bridges) may cool closer to the air temperature yielding some potential for light icing on these surfaces from any freezing rain or drizzle. Precipitation amounts look to be on the low side….maybe .05 to .20 of liquid with the higher amounts closer to the coast where temperatures will be above freezing. Overall not expecting any accumulations at this time, although an icy patch on a bridge or light ice on trees and power lines is possible especially north of HWY 105.

Confidence:
As with most winter weather events in SE TX, the confidence on where the surface freezing line will be along with what type of precipitation may fall is always low confidence until close to the event. Many of the parameters with this upcoming event are marginal with both the cold air and moisture. Will see how models guidance trends today and see what the shorter range guidance outputs as we move into that time period later today into Wednesday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2636 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:22 am

0z CMC has trended with more moisture with Sleet for Tulsa on the upcoming cold front, Yesterday's 12z run did not feature that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2637 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:27 am

Ryan Maue tweeted a graphic yesterday comparing the EC & GFS 500mb forecasts out to 5 days. GFS has been performing terribly compared to the Euro. I've been following the forecasts for the Fri/Sat snow storm across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. GFS has 3-6 inches of snow but the Euro has about 14-16" in the same area. Perhaps you guys should move to eastern NC/VA area if you want snow? I do see that the Euro has a snow event across Texas around the 28th, possibly to include D-FW area. That's 10 days out so I wouldn't be too quick to believe it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2638 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Ryan Maue tweeted a graphic yesterday comparing the EC & GFS 500mb forecasts out to 5 days. GFS has been performing terribly compared to the Euro. I've been following the forecasts for the Fri/Sat snow storm across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. GFS has 3-6 inches of snow but the Euro has about 14-16" in the same area. Perhaps you guys should move to eastern NC/VA area if you want snow? I do see that the Euro has a snow event across Texas around the 28th, possibly to include D-FW area. That's 10 days out so I wouldn't be too quick to believe it.


No, because there is a good chance that if we go there, the snow will go to DFW instead of NC/VA
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2639 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:52 am

Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ryan Maue tweeted a graphic yesterday comparing the EC & GFS 500mb forecasts out to 5 days. GFS has been performing terribly compared to the Euro. I've been following the forecasts for the Fri/Sat snow storm across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. GFS has 3-6 inches of snow but the Euro has about 14-16" in the same area. Perhaps you guys should move to eastern NC/VA area if you want snow? I do see that the Euro has a snow event across Texas around the 28th, possibly to include D-FW area. That's 10 days out so I wouldn't be too quick to believe it.


No, because there is a good chance that if we go there, the snow will go to DFW instead of NC/VA


And that's how you're going to get snow in D-FW!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2640 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:56 am

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Ryan Maue tweeted a graphic yesterday comparing the EC & GFS 500mb forecasts out to 5 days. GFS has been performing terribly compared to the Euro. I've been following the forecasts for the Fri/Sat snow storm across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. GFS has 3-6 inches of snow but the Euro has about 14-16" in the same area. Perhaps you guys should move to eastern NC/VA area if you want snow? I do see that the Euro has a snow event across Texas around the 28th, possibly to include D-FW area. That's 10 days out so I wouldn't be too quick to believe it.


No, because there is a good chance that if we go there, the snow will go to DFW instead of NC/VA


And that's how you're going to get snow in D-FW!


The only winning play is not to move if you want snow.

(Not talking to Heat Miser, he does not like the cold at all!)
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