Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

...snip... I definitely don't hate the warmups we have between fronts

Yeah, me too. I like the warmup between May and the end of September - between fronts. You're maybe turning into a bit of a heat miser?

No one talking about the 300+ hr 12Z GFS run? Come on, you can believe it this time!

That was not featured in all other runs until now, the accuracy for the GFS flopped lately.

[DallasAg]

...snip... I definitely don't hate the warmups we have between fronts

Yeah, me too. I like the warmup between May and the end of September - between fronts. You're maybe turning into a bit of a heat miser?

No one talking about the 300+ hr 12Z GFS run? Come on, you can believe it this time!

Nah I'll never be a fan of summer heat. That definitely gets old

If summer had more variety it wouldn't be so bad like some rain or a high in the 70s

At least in Tulsa during the summer you're the beneficiary of late night MCS's from Kansas or sometimes backdooring in from MO. Even in July/Aug you can get them.

In NTX seems like once the MCS tap shuts off in late June we're pretty much stuck until mid/late September unless we get a TUTT, easterly wave, or something from the tropics.

[wxman57]

...snip... I definitely don't hate the warmups we have between fronts

Yeah, me too. I like the warmup between May and the end of September - between fronts. You're maybe turning into a bit of a heat miser?

No one talking about the 300+ hr 12Z GFS run? Come on, you can believe it this time!

Nah I'll never be a fan of summer heat. That definitely gets old

If summer had more variety it wouldn't be so bad like some rain or a high in the 70s

Plenty of summer variability. Lows in the upper 70s followed by highs near 100. I remember when I was in college back in the 1970s (A&M). I always looked forward to the day in spring when the first towering cumulonimbus cloud appeared. No more of those boring winter stratus clouds and cold rain. We tried to chase the Wichita Falls tornado in 1979. Storm system was moving too fast. We gave up when we reached the Waco NWS office to check the radar.

[Cerlin]

Maybe I’ll move to Anchorage. Alaska has a bunch of snow and they can get up into the 80s during the summer. Too bad the cost of living is exorbitant.

[Ntxw]

Moving to get more snow is often a fool's errand. OK and KS have been in a snow drought for many years as well, though KS has had a few small-time events this winter, they are still below normal. Heck, my first winter here was 2014-2015. Multiple snows. I was more frequent on another forum then, which was active. Now, it's dead in the Texas section after years of nothing.

I recall seeing a certain "eastern" forum years ago complaining constantly about NC/VA getting screwed out of snow etc.

The only places I could consider moving to for snow would be far northern plains but east enough...maybe MN....or interior Maine. So beautiful there. But, I hate really cold winters also, so not so sure about that. I would miss severe weather in ME for sure.

I have a FB friend in Corning, NY, and I am always envious of the snow there. They are buried.

Outside of the Alaska, all areas south of the Canadian border has been in snow droughts! Even lake effect has been lackluster. When was the last time you heard tug hill plateau getting roof high snow?

[Iceresistance]

Moving to get more snow is often a fool's errand. OK and KS have been in a snow drought for many years as well, though KS has had a few small-time events this winter, they are still below normal. Heck, my first winter here was 2014-2015. Multiple snows. I was more frequent on another forum then, which was active. Now, it's dead in the Texas section after years of nothing.

I recall seeing a certain "eastern" forum years ago complaining constantly about NC/VA getting screwed out of snow etc.

The only places I could consider moving to for snow would be far northern plains but east enough...maybe MN....or interior Maine. So beautiful there. But, I hate really cold winters also, so not so sure about that. I would miss severe weather in ME for sure.

I have a FB friend in Corning, NY, and I am always envious of the snow there. They are buried.

Outside of the Alaska, all areas south of the Canadian border has been in snow droughts! Even lake effect has been lackluster. When was the last time you heard tug hill plateau getting roof high snow?

Right now, the Western USA is above average right now in snowfall for Winter 2021-2022, I don't recall that particular area being above average in snowfall in winter lately, let alone December.

[Brent]

Moving to get more snow is often a fool's errand. OK and KS have been in a snow drought for many years as well, though KS has had a few small-time events this winter, they are still below normal. Heck, my first winter here was 2014-2015. Multiple snows. I was more frequent on another forum then, which was active. Now, it's dead in the Texas section after years of nothing.

I recall seeing a certain "eastern" forum years ago complaining constantly about NC/VA getting screwed out of snow etc.

The only places I could consider moving to for snow would be far northern plains but east enough...maybe MN....or interior Maine. So beautiful there. But, I hate really cold winters also, so not so sure about that. I would miss severe weather in ME for sure.

I have a FB friend in Corning, NY, and I am always envious of the snow there. They are buried.

Outside of the Alaska, all areas south of the Canadian border has been in snow droughts! Even lake effect has been lackluster. When was the last time you heard tug hill plateau getting roof high snow?

Right now, the Western USA is above average right now in snowfall for Winter 2021-2022, I don't recall that particular area being above average in snowfall in winter lately, let alone December.

They got a lot in December when the rest of us were torching yeah it was very unusual for them but the torch also was for the rest of us

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF has this for Southern Texas, even Houston, Victoria, Corpus Christi, & maybe Brownsville could get some snow.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png

EDIT: All I can say for the 15z SREF is 'OH MY'


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png

[BigB0882]

9z SREF has this for Southern Texas, even Houston, Victoria, Corpus Christi, & maybe Brownsville could get some snow.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png

EDIT: All I can say for the 15z SREF is 'OH MY'

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png

Of course it just hits a wall as it gets to Louisiana. Not that I buy it, anyway. I just need enough of a chance for school to be called off on Friday. lol

[HockeyTx82]

Anyone know what this is talking about?

My brother found it and sent it to me.

Sorta what we have but just cherry picking a model run?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeopoldHeinrich

[TropicalTundra]

9z SREF has this for Southern Texas, even Houston, Victoria, Corpus Christi, & maybe Brownsville could get some snow.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png

EDIT: All I can say for the 15z SREF is 'OH MY'

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png

I'd take that with a grain of salt. I'd have to side with Heat Miser regarding snow in south Texas. Maybe some flakes or a flurry can't be ruled out, but 6-8" like Heat Miser stated is definitely a little unrealistic. The 18z HRRR looks the most reasonable and it looks a lot like the NWS snow maps.

[Iceresistance]

Anyone know what this is talking about?

My brother found it and sent it to me.

Sorta what we have but just cherry picking a model run?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeopoldHeinrich

He has pointed out about something with a possible cold wave since the center of the PV may have warmed by February 2nd?

[texas1836]

Anyone know what this is talking about?

My brother found it and sent it to me.

Sorta what we have but just cherry picking a model run?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeopoldHeinrich

I hope so. Hopefully Tonga will add a little cooling flare as well.

The GFS looks fun in hour 342.

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF has this for Southern Texas, even Houston, Victoria, Corpus Christi, & maybe Brownsville could get some snow.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png

EDIT: All I can say for the 15z SREF is 'OH MY'

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png

I'd take that with a grain of salt. I'd have to side with Heat Miser regarding snow in south Texas. Maybe some flakes or a flurry can't be ruled out, but 6-8" like Heat Miser stated is definitely a little unrealistic. The 18z HRRR looks the most reasonable and it looks a lot like the NWS snow maps.

The SREF is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast model, so maybe it could happen? It's unlikely, but not impossible. We need to wait & see if this forecast verifies, it would be wild if it did.

[wxman57]

HRRR indicates that Portastorm may get some sleet/snow in Austin on Thursday.

http://wxman57.com/images/AUS.JPG

[HockeyTx82]

Anyone know what this is talking about?

My brother found it and sent it to me.

Sorta what we have but just cherry picking a model run?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeopoldHeinrich

I hope so. Hopefully Tonga will add a little cooling flare as well.

The GFS looks fun in hour 342.

The volume X temperature of the Arctic bubble is at least +50% higher than last year.

What the heck does that mean?

[jaguars_22]

Idk the HRRR is showing more precip than any other models. It lights up across south central Texas. I believe that whatever comes out of Mexico could provide tricky forecasts. In my opinion it’s all about temps. Here in Victoria we could see some slush… I think high temps are too high for Thursday and Friday.

[Iceresistance]

Anyone know what this is talking about?

My brother found it and sent it to me.

Sorta what we have but just cherry picking a model run?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LeopoldHeinrich

I hope so. Hopefully Tonga will add a little cooling flare as well.

The GFS looks fun in hour 342.

The volume X temperature of the Arctic bubble is at least +50% higher than last year.

What the heck does that mean?

Could disrupt the PV & could cause huge pattern changes? I don't know much either, I'll let the Pro Mets help out here.

[Rgv20]

9z SREF has this for Southern Texas, even Houston, Victoria, Corpus Christi, & maybe Brownsville could get some snow.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF-Snowfall.png

EDIT: All I can say for the 15z SREF is 'OH MY'

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OH-MY.png

I'd take that with a grain of salt. I'd have to side with Heat Miser regarding snow in south Texas. Maybe some flakes or a flurry can't be ruled out, but 6-8" like Heat Miser stated is definitely a little unrealistic. The 18z HRRR looks the most reasonable and it looks a lot like the NWS snow maps.

The SREF is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast model, so maybe it could happen? It's unlikely, but not impossible. We need to wait & see if this forecast verifies, it would be wild if it did.

In my experience the HRRR to 48hrs has done a pretty good job for my area...So it will be interesting to see how it verifies on this unusual winter weather.

[Haris]

WXman57 wont like thaat NAM.

Big event in SCTX if it and hrrr verifies