Texas Winter 2021-2022

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2841 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:34 pm

Victoria has been reporting very light snow since 2233Z (4:33pm). Surface temperature down to 36F. I'm skeptical because sounding indicates only a shallow sub-freezing layer about 1000-2000 ft up with warmer air above. Definitely not a sounding where you'd expect to see snow. This may be an automated observation that's picking up on possible sleet as snow.

KVCT 210111Z 35019G25KT 9SM -SN OVC030 02/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 PK WND 35026/0053 P0000 T00221072
KVCT 210051Z 35016G22KT 9SM -SN OVC029 03/M06 A3036 RMK AO2 RAB2356E2359 SLP280 P0000 T00281061
KVCT 202351Z 35013KT 9SM -SN OVC028 04/M06 A3033 RMK AO2 SLP270 P0000 60000 T00391056 10056 20033 53012
KVCT 202316Z 36015G23KT 9SM -SN BKN029 OVC090 03/M06 A3032 RMK AO2 P0000 T00331056
KVCT 202251Z 35018G22KT 9SM -SN BKN090 03/M05 A3032 RMK AO2 PK WND 36026/2219 RAE32SNB32 SLP265 P0000 T00331050
KVCT 202151Z 36018G23KT 10SM -RA SCT050 04/M05 A3031 RMK AO2 SLP261 P0000 T00391050
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2842 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:Victoria has been reporting very light snow since 2233Z (4:33pm). Surface temperature down to 36F. I'm skeptical because sounding indicates only a shallow sub-freezing layer about 1000-2000 ft up with warmer air above. Definitely not a sounding where you'd expect to see snow. This may be an automated observation that's picking up on possible sleet as snow.

KVCT 210111Z 35019G25KT 9SM -SN OVC030 02/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 PK WND 35026/0053 P0000 T00221072
KVCT 210051Z 35016G22KT 9SM -SN OVC029 03/M06 A3036 RMK AO2 RAB2356E2359 SLP280 P0000 T00281061
KVCT 202351Z 35013KT 9SM -SN OVC028 04/M06 A3033 RMK AO2 SLP270 P0000 60000 T00391056 10056 20033 53012
KVCT 202316Z 36015G23KT 9SM -SN BKN029 OVC090 03/M06 A3032 RMK AO2 P0000 T00331056
KVCT 202251Z 35018G22KT 9SM -SN BKN090 03/M05 A3032 RMK AO2 PK WND 36026/2219 RAE32SNB32 SLP265 P0000 T00331050
KVCT 202151Z 36018G23KT 10SM -RA SCT050 04/M05 A3031 RMK AO2 SLP261 P0000 T00391050


The Observation could be mistaking the Sleet as Graupel
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2843 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 8:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:Victoria has been reporting very light snow since 2233Z (4:33pm). Surface temperature down to 36F. I'm skeptical because sounding indicates only a shallow sub-freezing layer about 1000-2000 ft up with warmer air above. Definitely not a sounding where you'd expect to see snow. This may be an automated observation that's picking up on possible sleet as snow.

KVCT 210111Z 35019G25KT 9SM -SN OVC030 02/M07 A3037 RMK AO2 PK WND 35026/0053 P0000 T00221072
KVCT 210051Z 35016G22KT 9SM -SN OVC029 03/M06 A3036 RMK AO2 RAB2356E2359 SLP280 P0000 T00281061
KVCT 202351Z 35013KT 9SM -SN OVC028 04/M06 A3033 RMK AO2 SLP270 P0000 60000 T00391056 10056 20033 53012
KVCT 202316Z 36015G23KT 9SM -SN BKN029 OVC090 03/M06 A3032 RMK AO2 P0000 T00331056
KVCT 202251Z 35018G22KT 9SM -SN BKN090 03/M05 A3032 RMK AO2 PK WND 36026/2219 RAE32SNB32 SLP265 P0000 T00331050
KVCT 202151Z 36018G23KT 10SM -RA SCT050 04/M05 A3031 RMK AO2 SLP261 P0000 T00391050



Jaguars would be happy. Pretty sure that’s the only person on here from Victoria.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2844 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:00 pm

After having just plain rain all evening, I now I have snow flurries with 37 degrees.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2845 Postby Golf7270 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:58 pm

If someone has access to wxbell or weathermodels.com to see what the epo, pna, and ao will do on gefs and eps would be a good indicator moving forward
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2846 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:10 pm

If a December repeat, it’s over. Just hope we can at least get rain while it transitions.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2847 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:12 pm

We had very light snow flakes here in victoria. They were drifting around and wasn’t sleet… latest models showing Victoria getting a good burst later tonight so we’ll see :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2848 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:33 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:If a December repeat, it’s over. Just hope we can at least get rain while it transitions.

In deep winter, I would expect a better result from the -PNA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2849 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:55 pm

Latest ICON showing a decent snow making its way across North Texas on Wednesday, let’s see if the other Globals follow suit…

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2850 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:55 pm

Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2851 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:56 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:If a December repeat, it’s over. Just hope we can at least get rain while it transitions.

In deep winter, I would expect a better result from the -PNA.


I would think it could push a bit more here as long as it’s not a deep -PNA for sure.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2852 Postby rearview » Thu Jan 20, 2022 11:01 pm

Light sleet has been falling on and off in College Station for the last 2 or 3 hours. 36*
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2853 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 20, 2022 11:07 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:If a December repeat, it’s over. Just hope we can at least get rain while it transitions.

In deep winter, I would expect a better result from the -PNA.


I would think it could push a bit more here as long as it’s not a deep -PNA for sure.


Yeah wasn't that more the problem in December... The PNA was too strong. We need a weaker more marginal one

I really hope something changes because right now this is one of the least snowy winters ever here. Unlike Dallas it usually snows more than an inch here in winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2854 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:11 am

6z GFS at the long range may be playing tricks, but that's a crippling Ice Storm for Central & Northern Texas if it verified.

The Radar & Soundings don't match up to each other very well in Oklahoma though.

And 1060+ MB Highs in Alaska & Canada as well, with lows as far down as -60°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2855 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:27 am

Cold morning across all of Texas with temps around 10 near the Red River, near 20 along I-20, temps are near freezing in SE and South Texas. Mixed precip has moved into South Texas causing some icing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2856 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:34 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:Cold morning across all of Texas with temps around 10 near the Red River, near 20 along I-20, temps are near freezing in SE and South Texas. Mixed precip has moved into South Texas causing some icing.


I made it down to 31° with a wind chill of 20°. Not too shabby!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2857 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:47 am

So glad my warmest high over the next 10 days is 60 degrees. Lots of 30s to 40s/50s.

Perfect running weather!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2858 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:50 am

Iceresistance wrote:6z GFS at the long range may be playing tricks, but that's a crippling Ice Storm for Central & Northern Texas if it verified.

The Radar & Soundings don't match up to each other very well in Oklahoma though.

And 1060+ MB Highs in Alaska & Canada as well, with lows as far down as -60°F


So now we know what wont happen. Got it.

It's been saying this since mid december and we have yet to have a 1050mb cross the border!

It's educational to see how they develop, but other than that, lets not try to excite the board or others who dont understand that the chances of this happening are something like 2%, when models show it past 300 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2859 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:53 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:


You either need the polar and subtropical jets to phase or a ULL digging down into Mexico and ejecting out into the Southern part of the state in a ENEasterly fashion for SA to get considerable winter weather.

I'd argue that the precip is normally around in bits and pieces in Winter, its getting SA cold enough. The best case scenarios are Nino type winters with an active STJ and a lot of snow pack to our north. If you see OK to Canada covered in measurable snow, you'll get some overperforming events because the models will typically be too warm due to moderating the front.

What's funny about Texas is its hard to get a Winter Storm for most of the state like last February. Whats good for Dallas is typically not all that great for Austin/SA/Houston, and whats good for Austin/SA may not be all that great for Houston and vice versa.
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2860 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:53 am

Made it down to 9 this morning.
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