Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2861 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:11 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:


Lift. Upper level divergence is a great mechanism for this. Today, most of the lift and divergence was to the south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2862 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:12 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Made it down to 9 this morning.


My house managed to record 8°F, Watonga, OK fell to 5°F
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2863 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:13 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:6z GFS at the long range may be playing tricks, but that's a crippling Ice Storm for Central & Northern Texas if it verified.

The Radar & Soundings don't match up to each other very well in Oklahoma though.

And 1060+ MB Highs in Alaska & Canada as well, with lows as far down as -60°F


So now we know what wont happen. Got it.

It's been saying this since mid december and we have yet to have a 1050mb cross the border!

It's educational to see how they develop, but other than that, lets not try to excite the board or others who dont understand that the chances of this happening are something like 2%, when models show it past 300 hours.


I do want to mention that the GFS has been doing something similar to that for a while now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2864 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:23 am

GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2865 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:42 am

Iceresistance wrote:GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.


Uh oh. We want 8-2 right?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2866 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:44 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:GEFS MJO Guidance is currently suggesting that the MJO will reemerge at Phase 3 in February.


Uh oh. We want 8-2 right?


Yes from Previous Posts, but since the MJO is inactive, we don't know when or where it will reemerge it's basically anyone's guess until we get better information & knowledge on when it will come back out.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2867 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:51 am

The MJO hasn’t been in a favorable phase the entire winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2868 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:18 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:


You either need the polar and subtropical jets to phase or a ULL digging down into Mexico and ejecting out into the Southern part of the state in a ENEasterly fashion for SA to get considerable winter weather.

I'd argue that the precip is normally around in bits and pieces in Winter, its getting SA cold enough. The best case scenarios are Nino type winters with an active STJ and a lot of snow pack to our north. If you see OK to Canada covered in measurable snow, you'll get some overperforming events because the models will typically be too warm due to moderating the front.

What's funny about Texas is its hard to get a Winter Storm for most of the state like last February. Whats good for Dallas is typically not all that great for Austin/SA/Houston, and whats good for Austin/SA may not be all that great for Houston and vice versa.

I guess that’s the blessing/curse for living in such a large state. Not everyone can be satisfied with the type of winter weather that they get.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2869 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:24 am

UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:Honest question. In the winter, is there any mechanism that can force the dry air out, allowing for moisture and cold air to converge and form wintry precipitation? Or is it just all about timing. Because today’s been quite a bummer in SA :cry:


You either need the polar and subtropical jets to phase or a ULL digging down into Mexico and ejecting out into the Southern part of the state in a ENEasterly fashion for SA to get considerable winter weather.

I'd argue that the precip is normally around in bits and pieces in Winter, its getting SA cold enough. The best case scenarios are Nino type winters with an active STJ and a lot of snow pack to our north. If you see OK to Canada covered in measurable snow, you'll get some overperforming events because the models will typically be too warm due to moderating the front.

What's funny about Texas is its hard to get a Winter Storm for most of the state like last February. Whats good for Dallas is typically not all that great for Austin/SA/Houston, and whats good for Austin/SA may not be all that great for Houston and vice versa.

I guess that’s the blessing/curse for living in such a large state. Not everyone can be satisfied with the type of winter weather that they get.


Yeah, winter storms typically have a narrow band of heavy snow, ice etc. Last February was definitely unusual.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2870 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:44 am

It's somewhat chilly here in Houston today. A temperature of 100F would feel much better. GFS & Euro are still battling over that east coast storm around the 29-30th. GFS has a massive storm while the Euro has a weak low offshore. Who will win?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2871 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:10 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The MJO hasn’t been in a favorable phase the entire winter.


We were in Phase 8 earlier this month
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2872 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:13 pm

Got pretty much nothing yesterday. Just some light sleet, cold temps, lots of wind, and a snowflake or 2 I didn't see. Kind of a boring winter pattern. Hopefully February looks up because so far January has been pretty much the runt of the snow season.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2873 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:34 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Got pretty much nothing yesterday. Just some light sleet, cold temps, lots of wind, and a snowflake or 2 I didn't see. Kind of a boring winter pattern. Hopefully February looks up because so far January has been pretty much the runt of the snow season.


My heart yearns for the north branch to merge with with the STJ with a 1060+mb high coming down dropping temps in Texas from anywhere below zero to the 20’s with a couple feet for a snow for most of the state. And for it to stay cold for a couple weeks so the snow doesn’t melt. In my dreams right? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2874 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:20 pm

The Setup is good, but the Southern Ridge won't let the cold come here!

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https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_65f0b2b1f6323096c6.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2875 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:49 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2876 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:56 am

Third light freeze of the season here in Houston this morning. That's fewer than normal for this time of year. Still too cold to go outside. Cold without snow remains pointless. We're gaining nearly a minute of sunshine each day not. Average temps are beginning to creep up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2877 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:56 am

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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2878 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:16 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:


Because it's 2 weeks out, experimental and the way winter is going why get emotionally involved. And it's not even for Texas.....


I do want to point out that the risk of Heavy Snow has moved further South, last time, it was in NE Kansas, now it's at the OK/KS Border.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2879 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:25 am

Strong snowfall signal for Oklahoma 5-7 Days out on the 6z GEFS

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https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Only-7-Days-out.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2880 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:36 am

Icon snows west of DFW this week. Looks like Abilene bullseye this run.

Sneaky shortwave.

Rgem and nam are pretty close. HP up north feeding CAA while separation of Lower heights to the NE.
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