Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2901 Postby Haris » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:39 pm

18z euro look like a big one for dallas
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2902 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:03 pm

Unless this week trends into a legit snow here(aka the grass has to be covered) I'm probably gonna lose my mind if that 18z GFS back east verifies

Enough already it's our turn :spam: :roll: their climo isn't as good as mine

All this talk of a great pattern... Not around here. A great pattern requires a snowstorm at some point
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2903 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:24 am

There is now a model conflict on when & where the MJO will reemerge. (Will it be funny if it reemerged at Phase 7 later this coming work week?)

The CA Model has it reemerging at Phase 8 in a few days
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/statphase_small.gif

The GEFS model is consistent now for it to reemerge in a couple of weeks at Phase 3.
Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/GEFS_ensplume_small.gif
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2904 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:48 am

The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.

Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2905 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:18 am

bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.

Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...


Not a lot of cold air to work with this time around (most of it shunted east). System diving in looks too flat and thus not a lot of moisture with it. February (at least the first two weeks) doesn't look too promising as I see it right now either.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2906 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:13 pm

It's 11:15am in Houston and my thermometer says 47.3F. Too cold to go outside. I don't understand how anyone would like such cold temps. If it was 40 deg warmer then I'd be out on a 5-hr bike ride today. Cold is useless weather. Time for July!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2907 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Jan 23, 2022 12:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:It's 11:15am in Houston and my thermometer says 47.3F. Too cold to go outside. I don't understand how anyone would like such cold temps. If it was 40 deg warmer then I'd be out on a 5-hr bike ride today. Cold is useless weather. Time for July!



Air quality is better in a
Cold airmass over our typical April to September Hell weather. It just feels better in the lungs. It’s why I can run longer, faster and feel more refreshed when I run in Winter.

I go to the treadmill and stationary bike when it gets warm. I only do races in the Winter months.


47 is not cold, not even close. HAHA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2908 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:25 pm

12z euro gets a little snow into NTX. We need to cash something, February looking like a warm start.

It's been a lot of dry cold for the northern half of the state. Been a reversal but the persistent drought holds true.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2909 Postby DallasAg » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:34 pm

bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.

Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...


That's the most deflating part of this. No snow? Fine. But at least throw us a bone and bring some rain our way. This week's system only looked like it was going to be a wetting rain at best, but now it's looking like there's a very realistic chance we'll get missed entirely. We're digging a pretty big hole when you consider how dry 2021 ended.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2910 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:35 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's 11:15am in Houston and my thermometer says 47.3F. Too cold to go outside. I don't understand how anyone would like such cold temps. If it was 40 deg warmer then I'd be out on a 5-hr bike ride today. Cold is useless weather. Time for July!


Air quality is better in a
Cold airmass over our typical April to September Hell weather. It just feels better in the lungs. It’s why I can run longer, faster and feel more refreshed when I run in Winter.

I go to the treadmill and stationary bike when it gets warm. I only do races in the Winter months. 47 is not cold, not even close. HAHA.


My lungs always hurt if I run in cold weather (<80F). Biking inside isn't biking. Tried it decades ago and was bored to death after 2 minutes. I know that there are new systems that connect to the internet and let you bike with friends, but I prefer the real thing. Temperature is almost to 51F now, still too cold to even go outside (for me). I'm sitting at my desk with a small heater pointed at my hands. Otherwise, I'm under an electric blanket with a large heating pad on my back (sitting up watching TV). Some weekend... Temperature in my home office is down to 75.6F. BRRR!

Looks cold and dry for much of Texas for the next couple of weeks. No snow for the D-FW area except for the chance of a brief flurry Wednesday night with the surface temp above freezing. The bulk of the cold air continues to push east into February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2911 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 23, 2022 3:07 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.

Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...


Not a lot of cold air to work with this time around (most of it shunted east). System diving in looks too flat and thus not a lot of moisture with it. February (at least the first two weeks) doesn't look too promising as I see it right now either.


Are we ever gonna get a favorable pattern for moisture and cold here before winter is over. I mean the days are getting longer averages are going up it's gonna be over soon

I know everyone always hypes February but once it's over...
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2912 Postby Haris » Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:17 pm

Image

Interesting
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2913 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:41 pm



Yeah both 12z Euro control and latest GFS operational hinting at a secondary system dropping further south late in the week pulling some colder down with it, but almost no ensemble support with that for now.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2914 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:45 pm

Brent wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The number of EPS members that show snow for DFW continues to increase, but the number of members with more than 1" is going down.

Also, pretty bummed that what looked like a decent rain for N. Texas has trended hard SE and we might not get any rain now...


Not a lot of cold air to work with this time around (most of it shunted east). System diving in looks too flat and thus not a lot of moisture with it. February (at least the first two weeks) doesn't look too promising as I see it right now either.


Are we ever gonna get a favorable pattern for moisture and cold here before winter is over. I mean the days are getting longer averages are going up it's gonna be over soon

I know everyone always hypes February but once it's over...


Just not a favorable pattern for precip (even when we've had the cold in place). Perhaps that changes a bit into Feb, but there are signs that we could see more ridging come back the first few weeks so doesn't look too promising right now, but of course things can change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2915 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:46 pm

A blend of the 18z Euro & 18z GFS probably gets some measurable snowfall for N. Texas b/w I20 and the Red River. Concerning that the Hi-res models seem uninterested at this point...
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2916 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:50 pm

bubba hotep wrote:A blend of the 18z Euro & 18z GFS probably gets some measurable snowfall for N. Texas b/w I20 and the Red River. Concerning that the Hi-res models seem uninterested at this point...


Good thing is we are far enough out for the hi res to change. Hopefully because first system is so far S it won't overwork the atmosphere.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2917 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 23, 2022 7:54 pm

Lubbock WFO believes in this system and has widespread snow forecast. But does it make it far enough east to impact DFW/N.TX?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2918 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:04 pm

18z euro says yes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2919 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 9:12 pm

The end of the Euro and EPS actually look kinda interesting. Will that cold air keep pushing south or stay up there?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2920 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:37 pm

GFS has that midweek wave trying to be interesting up here again. Definitely some accumulating snow
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