Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2981 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:23 pm



I'm sure that the day 8-9 Euro will verify this time. No question about it.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2982 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:25 pm

:uarrow: Greatness!!!!! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2983 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:11 pm

Winter Weather Advisory up for SW Oklahoma for Tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2984 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:14 pm

This one is really starting to look interesting..... :eek: Euro ENS, All Operationals and Euro Control going pretty wild with storm next week
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2985 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:18 pm

orangeblood wrote:This one is really starting to look interesting..... :eek: Euro ENS, All Operationals and Euro Control going pretty wild with storm next week
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/z500_anom/1643112000/1643803200-tkJcrEvxmBA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850/1643112000/1643889600-HjReyOzS2Jg.png


If that could dig another 150-200 miles south and then eject, I’d be happy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2986 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:26 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:


Y’all know better than to trust a model when it shows snow and cold. They are only reliable when they show shorts and shirt sleeve bike riding weather! :lol:

Heat Miser rebuttal in 3, 2, 1…


Oh for sure hence my :spam: emojis :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2987 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:29 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
orangeblood wrote:This one is really starting to look interesting..... :eek: Euro ENS, All Operationals and Euro Control going pretty wild with storm next week
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/z500_anom/1643112000/1643803200-tkJcrEvxmBA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850/1643112000/1643889600-HjReyOzS2Jg.png


If that could dig another 150-200 miles south and then eject, I’d be happy.

Agreed. If the cold air is shallow this looks like the kind of overrunning setup that produces an ice storm for ntx to me
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2988 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:34 pm

Any guesses why the signs on the DNT through Plano said to be aware of winter weather prep trucks? Roughly noon today heading northbound.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2989 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:38 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Any guesses why the signs on the DNT through Plano said to be aware of winter weather prep trucks? Roughly noon today heading northbound.


There's a wave up here tomorrow I guess. Not really sure it's that close to Dallas but if you're driving up this way(especially further west) I guess it makes sense

Edit actually Collin County has a 20 percent rain snow mix tomorrow evening so theres that :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2990 Postby Cerlin » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:56 pm

Brent wrote:
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Any guesses why the signs on the DNT through Plano said to be aware of winter weather prep trucks? Roughly noon today heading northbound.


There's a wave up here tomorrow I guess. Not really sure it's that close to Dallas but if you're driving up this way(especially further west) I guess it makes sense

Edit actually Collin County has a 20 percent rain snow mix tomorrow evening so theres that :lol:

Especially after last year with the pileup in Ft Worth, I think NTTA is going to be very aggressive when it comes to treating roads—I think it’s probably better to salt roads 10 times when it doesn’t ice, rather than to underprepare the one time it ices over.
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Let it snow NTX!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2991 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:04 pm

Snow or rain, we all need more precip ASAP. 96% of the state of Texas is technically in a drought as of last Thursday's release. Doubt yesterday's drizzle did much to help unfortunately.

We don't need another Spring/Summer 2011...hopefully La Nina relaxes a bit in time for our spring rains. :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2992 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:16 pm

orangeblood wrote:This one is really starting to look interesting..... :eek: Euro ENS, All Operationals and Euro Control going pretty wild with storm next week
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/z500_anom/1643112000/1643803200-tkJcrEvxmBA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850/1643112000/1643889600-HjReyOzS2Jg.png


Models have done some sig flip flopping in particular the ensembles. -PNA is now gone early Feb. Ridging east and west coast, good for TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2993 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:This one is really starting to look interesting..... :eek: Euro ENS, All Operationals and Euro Control going pretty wild with storm next week
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/z500_anom/1643112000/1643803200-tkJcrEvxmBA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850/1643112000/1643889600-HjReyOzS2Jg.png


Models have done some sig flip flopping in particular the ensembles. -PNA is now gone early Feb. Ridging east and west coast, good for TX.


Really good...regardless of whether it's cold enough for frozen precip, this is one of the better Precip Signals we've seen in a while

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2994 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:23 pm

Hey, now we are talking. Lock in that Euro. I do pay attention to it more than I normally do because of the GFS performance of late.

I am eagerly awaiting future runs now that at least it's a little more than a week out, not two weeks etc.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2995 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:This one is really starting to look interesting..... :eek: Euro ENS, All Operationals and Euro Control going pretty wild with storm next week
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/z500_anom/1643112000/1643803200-tkJcrEvxmBA.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/conus/t850/1643112000/1643889600-HjReyOzS2Jg.png


Models have done some sig flip flopping in particular the ensembles. -PNA is now gone early Feb. Ridging east and west coast, good for TX.


That is what we really need to get some rain or snow here. I just hope it lasts more than 3 days before it moved to a strong west coast trough. It seems like the coasts get their troughs to sit for weeks, while we rarely do here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2996 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:06 pm

18z GEFS Mean snowfall is .25 to .75 inch for my area, up to 1.5 inches in SW Oklahoma
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2997 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:14 pm

18z GFS has me in the Deep Freeze for Weeks! :eek:

EDIT: It appears that most of the Arctic air is a good amount above the surface.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2998 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:43 pm

Iceresistance wrote:18z GEFS Mean snowfall is .25 to .75 inch for my area, up to 1.5 inches in SW Oklahoma


Jeez, the 18z GEFS has gone crazy on the next major storm system 8-10 Days out.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#2999 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:24 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z GEFS Mean snowfall is .25 to .75 inch for my area, up to 1.5 inches in SW Oklahoma


Jeez, the 18z GEFS has gone crazy on the next major storm system 8-10 Days out.


When 3/4 of the members show something for TX then let me know, otherwise, meehhh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3000 Postby Golf7270 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:32 pm

The way to keep the cold pattern going instead of reverting to constant west coast trough like December is to have the Pacific jet to extend instead of retract moving forward. Hopefully orangeblood and ntxw will agree with me in that.
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