Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3015
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3241 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:41 am

Sambucol wrote:
Haris wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Me and you need for it to dig a lot further south. Not sure that’s gonna happen.



ICOn has ice statewide. It just doesnt show on tidbits. Austins around 21.

Otherwise yes, if you werent referring to that specific model, yeah I agree. Its a long shot still

Does it show ice all the way to the upper Texas coast?


Only like two members show that. Very unlikely at this point.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 35972
Age: 33
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3242 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:40 am

0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19167
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3243 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:44 am

Brent wrote:0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

https://i.ibb.co/BqBQjzQ/sn10-acc-us-c-8.png


A lot of it trended further south from it's 12z run. I'd say improvement run for you.

Overall though I wouldn't say too much changed. It's like trying to paint a picture with blindfolds right now. It's gonna be smudgy and fuzzy but you can make out the features. The energy associated with it is in the middle of the North Pacific.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 35972
Age: 33
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3244 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:49 am

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

https://i.ibb.co/BqBQjzQ/sn10-acc-us-c-8.png


A lot of it trended further south from it's 12z run. I'd say improvement run for you.

Overall though I wouldn't say too much changed. It's like trying to paint a picture with blindfolds right now. It's gonna be smudgy and fuzzy but you can make out the features. The energy associated with it is in the middle of the North Pacific.


Yeah unfortunately it's still day 5 and 6 :lol: but I do feel pretty good up here right now
0 likes   
#neversummer

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19167
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3245 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:51 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:0z Euro not much different from the GFS tbh up here

https://i.ibb.co/BqBQjzQ/sn10-acc-us-c-8.png


A lot of it trended further south from it's 12z run. I'd say improvement run for you.

Overall though I wouldn't say too much changed. It's like trying to paint a picture with blindfolds right now. It's gonna be smudgy and fuzzy but you can make out the features. The energy associated with it is in the middle of the North Pacific.


Yeah unfortunately it's still day 5 and 6 :lol: but I do feel pretty good up here right now


In the end I don't think the precip shield is going to be what the models have it in the medium range right now. It never is, it's going to be much more focused once the jet streak breaks out. Next up will be in a few days when the northern folks say trend north and the southern folks say trend south.

You will likely have the anafrontal precip (lift from the front in the north) and then the actual thunderstorms/trowal feature development somewhere in the southern sector.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3015
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3246 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:52 am

I’m not sure why it’s ejecting out so fast like that. I figured with ridging on both coasts that would allow it slow down and dig further south…
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19167
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3247 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:55 am

Cpv17 wrote:I’m not sure why it’s ejecting out so fast like that. I figured with ridging on both coasts that would allow it slow down and dig further south…


It'll change a few more times by weekend's end.

Here's a look at western ejection of similar features. Not an analog but can see how things play.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2011/us0201.php
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


WinterMax
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 119
Age: 60
Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:50 pm
Location: Ville Platte, La

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3248 Postby WinterMax » Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:56 am

A Miserable, useless couple of dry hard freezes late next week here in South Louisiana. I'm not mad at it, but the precip dries up during frontal passage as usual here.
2 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 21057
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3249 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:00 am

WinterMax wrote:A Miserable, useless couple of dry hard freezes late next week here in South Louisiana. I'm not mad at it, but the precip dries up during frontal passage as usual here.


You may get a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front next Thursday morning. Little chance of any frozen precip in SE TX or south LA, though. Models indicate a couple light freezes here in Houston next Fri/Sat. My wall seems to be working for Houston, anyway. No sign of any prolonged onshore flow the next couple of weeks. Just one cold front after the other. Beware believing the winter weather forecasts from the models. They always overdo such precip totals down south. Next Thursday may be interesting in the DFW area and eastern OK. We'll see. I'll make some wall fortifications this weekend.
7 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19167
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3250 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:27 am

6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.
6 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1592
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3251 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:38 am

Ntxw wrote:6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.


Yup, and it's believable because just like that year the Cowboys are not in the Super Bowl. History does repeat itself.
3 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9637
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3252 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:39 am

I care much more about getting some rain at this point and would be happy to leave the snow/ice to our friends up north. We're drying up here in south central Texas. :(
2 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4748
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3253 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:53 am

Ntxw wrote:6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.

Agreed, I think the precip depiction doesn’t sufficiently match up with the pattern, as it seems like there would be quite a bit more, given the significantly slowed timing. If such a trend holds, I imagine qpf will bump up in a few days when smaller scale features can start to be resolved. One thing I do find encouraging is that the setup shown may lend itself to more snow after the initial round of mixed precip, since the warm nose only appears to breach 32 for the first few hours
1 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19167
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3254 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:05 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Ntxw wrote:6z GFS, at the surface is best run yet (for NTX). You'd think it looks more in line with a trough coming out neg tilt. Ceiling for this will be high. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a scenario play out like Superbowl week 2011.

Agreed, I think the precip depiction doesn’t sufficiently match up with the pattern, as it seems like there would be quite a bit more, given the significantly slowed timing. If such a trend holds, I imagine qpf will bump up in a few days when smaller scale features can start to be resolved. One thing I do find encouraging is that the setup shown may lend itself to more snow after the initial round of mixed precip, since the warm nose only appears to breach 32 for the first few hours


I'd be quite satisfied with the GFS trends. In fact up until about yesterday the GFS wasn't showing the cold to meet up with the moisture in north Texas. Largely in the 200+ range it was in central plains. It's trending colder with each run.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3711
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3255 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:15 am

Portastorm wrote:I care much more about getting some rain at this point and would be happy to leave the snow/ice to our friends up north. We're drying up here in south central Texas. :(


Agreed Porta. Thankfully we have some decent chances coming in the next week. Hopefully we can cash in on some liquid gold. The drought map keeps getting uglier with each passing week.
3 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 19167
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3256 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:29 am

Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 21057
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3257 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:32 am

Portastorm wrote:I care much more about getting some rain at this point and would be happy to leave the snow/ice to our friends up north. We're drying up here in south central Texas. :(


It's been dry here, too, but not THAT dry. 1.9" in December and 1.25" so far this month. Only 47" in SW Houston last year. Usually we're around 55".
1 likes   

DonWrk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 475
Age: 33
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:54 pm
Location: Collinsville, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3258 Postby DonWrk » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:37 am

Ntxw wrote:Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.


Very consistent…would be one for the ages!
1 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1020
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3259 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:58 am

My official forecast in Montgomery County has stepped down bit by bit over the last 24 hours. My guess is that happens through next week.

I had one freeze and one 40 degree day. Now I have 4 consecutive hard freezes and Thursday through Sunday has dropped highs a good 7-10 degrees from yesterday morning forecast
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 21057
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3260 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:05 am

DonWrk wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Man the ICON continues to be stubborn with the trough hanging back, give it that at least it is consistent.


Very consistent…would be one for the ages!


...and the 12Z ICON backs away from the Texas winter weather. Just a trace in the D-FW area late next week. Light freeze for Houston. Models do indicate 1-2" of rain along the mid to upper TX coast Monday, though.

Update: 12Z GFS appears to like the D-FW area with 2-3 inches of snow next week. Low around 10F up there next Friday? Down to 28-29 here in Houston in that run, which is about 60 deg too cold for me.

She won't pull it away THIS time, right?
Image
1 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests