Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

This is what you want y’all !!


upload pic

[txtwister78]

Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has another one in the long range for Southern Texas!

[DallasAg]

This storm has huge potential. I am less certain about the I-35 corridor getting the heavy precip, the pattern has been so dry lately there. Areas east of I-45 should have no problem getting heavy precip though. If this storm really digs though western areas could join the party like shown on recent runs. 0.5 to 2+ inch qpf with surface in the 20s would have severe impacts. Way too early to identify warm noses to determine precip types, but it looks like most will see the full suite of precip types with this. Heck eastern areas may see severe storms ahead of the front Wed so may add hail to the precip suite.
I fully expect additional waves to follow next weekend and into the following week. Those would likely have a better chance to be pure snow for northern portions of the state as the cold will be solidly in place and deep at that point.
The cold will be intense where snow falls with single digits and a few sub zero reading possible. Doubt we see widespread sub zero like last year, hopefully not at least.

March 4, 2015 - the official daily climate report for DFW had the following observed weather:
Thunderstorm
Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Freezing Rain
LT Freezing Rain
Heavy Snow
Snow
Lt Snow
Sleet
Fog
Fog w/visibility <= 1/4 mile

Now that's what I call a "full precip suite". That was a pretty crazy day - the setup for next week looks/feels somewhat like that. Convection ahead of strong cold front, then a wild transition of precip types following.

[Iceresistance]

Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png

The GEFS has been mostly consistent with this for quite some time, this is why I trust the Ensembles more than the Operationals.

[txtwister78]

This is what you want y’all !!

Yup big signal/trend in the right direction if you want big winter precip no doubt.

[Ntxw]

Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png

There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up. The pattern is ripe with east and west ridges.

[Iceresistance]

All I can say here for this one in the long range 12z GFS is OOF!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/OOF.png

OKAY! This is a REALLY BIG OOF!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_scus_49.png

[Portastorm]

Can we all agree on just ONE thing? That would be a high of 85-90F next Friday would be much more enjoyable than what the models are indicating (high of upper 30s in Houston and about 18 in D-FW)? Come on! Who's with me on that?

Oh stop! Your 80s and 90s will be here before you know it.

[Cerlin]

You guys are keeping me pumped!!! Loving how lively the forum has been now that there's a promising signal for something.

[wxman57]

BRB. Heading to the Canadian border to fortify my wall. People in SE TX were in a panic last week when the low hit 30-31. They were shutting off their water for a 1-hr freeze.

[txtwister78]

Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png

There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up.

No question. I think if we continue to see runs trend toward winter precip (obviously with the cold air in place as a concern with it), we should begin to see a unified preparedness message over the weekend and certainly by early next wk. Never hurts to do that.

[orangeblood]

Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png

There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up. The pattern is ripe with east and west ridges.

Yep, very ripe and these taxpayer tools have been showing this for several days now....7 day temp anomalies like this, if close to verifying, are going to put MAJOR strain on this states infrastructure again. Directly in-line with major population corridors

[Ntxw]

UKMET with limited data but 5h looks slower than GFS so it's likely a big hit with cold incoming.

[HockeyTx82]

12Z ICON showing a major ice storm all the way to the coast.And the GFS is finally showing a storm taking shape.

https://i.ibb.co/3dgt8zj/icon-2022-01-28-12-Z-156-37-278-255-6-26-889-268-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

https://i.ibb.co/d0w9hP7/icon-2022-01-28-12-Z-168-37-278-255-6-26-889-268-333-Rain-Snow-Radar-highways.png

Ok wait a minute. I know we all want cold and snow, but who thought that up?

Is the like Ghostbusters where Gozer has our first thought turn into our destructor? Who had the thought??????


(Just watched Ghostbusters in 4k having not seen it since VHS days.....)

[Ntxw]

Man, the GEFS isn't messing around.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/instant_ptype/1643371200/1643900400-Pt1TFW4Ds1A.png

There's been ample warning for the state. I suspect as we get closer in reality we'll see things continue to ramp up. The pattern is ripe with east and west ridges.

Yep, very ripe and these taxpayer tools have been showing this for several days now....7 day temp anomalies like this, if close to verifying, are going to put MAJOR strain on this states infrastructure again. Directly in-line with major population corridors

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_7day/1643371200/1644472800-xYmgZrZDwBc.png

Doesn't help you have the northeast major population centers with demand this weekend, then Texas as a major nat gas producer next week.

[Ntxw]

300+ hours but why not? Mr HeatMiser tear down this wall.

[Cerlin]

Hopefully ERCOT has learned their lesson from last year. Signals are there again for another major outbreak for Texas, and if ERCOT tries to say they had "no clue" if something happens, it will be devastating. They need to act if it looks genuinely likely and start creating some surplus.

[orangeblood]

300+ hours but why not? Mr HeatMiser tear down this wall.

https://i.imgur.com/WBVY3M7.png

https://i.imgur.com/CGHPmIa.gif

Majority of the State 15-25F below normal over a 10 day stretch...maybe the coldest GFS run I've ever witnessed!

[txtwister78]

Hopefully ERCOT has learned their lesson from last year. Signals are there again for another major outbreak for Texas, and if ERCOT tries to say they had "no clue" if something happens, it will be devastating. They need to act if it looks genuinely likely and start creating some surplus.

It's a fine line I think but an important one. Obviously, I don't want to get into the weeds as it relates to this particular discussion, but preparedness is just that. You should always prepare for the "worst case scenario". Last year definitely fell into that category and obviously we all know what happened, however I think it's equally as important not to compare every arctic outbreak or winter weather event (which does occur in TX in Jan/Feb as we all know) to that rare/brutal 2021 event in Feb for a variety of reasons.

So yes absolutely ERCOT definitely should prepare, and I imagine they will this time around, but at the same time be careful of over emphasis to the general public to the point where this becomes too "routine" with every cold outbreak. That can also put a strain on other areas and perhaps have unintended consequences over time. Now back to weather.....