Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:56 pm

Surprised that no one has done this yet, but I’ll start it now in August.

I’m personally thinking that there is a higher than normal risk of a very mild winter for the Southern Plains, despite the Farmers almanac saying a incredibly nasty winter is possible for the Central and parts of the Southern Plains.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2 Postby TXdaddy217 » Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:12 am

Thank you for starting this thread. I am so done with 100 degree days. Hopefully we can all get a little something of winter joy throughout the state. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:47 pm

TXdaddy217 wrote:Thank you for starting this thread. I am so done with 100 degree days. Hopefully we can all get a little something of winter joy throughout the state. :cold:

I know! I am too! But perhaps we need to wait a few more months before this can get going.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4 Postby Itryatgolf » Wed Aug 10, 2022 5:19 pm

Last winter we was fortunate to have a east based niña and that allowed for a better pacific than anticipated. This winter may not be as fortunate. However, I've heard that a +qbo correlates with higher sunspot activity, hence usually leading to more blocking and -qbo correlates with lower sunspot activity. I'm thinking December may be our best opportunity at winter weather. A little different than last winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:54 am

Ben knoll, who is supposed to be well respected in the weather community, says the euro and ukmet seasonal is harping on -nao for early half of winter. That is the August update. We don't have triple niñas very often so it's difficult to really know how they pan out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Aug 14, 2022 7:58 am

Iceresistance wrote:Surprised that no one has done this yet, but I’ll start it now in August.

I’m personally thinking that there is a higher than normal risk of a very mild winter for the Southern Plains, despite the Farmers almanac saying a incredibly nasty winter is possible for the Central and parts of the Southern Plains.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Don't forget the old farmers almanac, which is even snowier lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#7 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Aug 14, 2022 2:44 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Surprised that no one has done this yet, but I’ll start it now in August.

I’m personally thinking that there is a higher than normal risk of a very mild winter for the Southern Plains, despite the Farmers almanac saying a incredibly nasty winter is possible for the Central and parts of the Southern Plains.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Don't forget the old farmers almanac, which is even snowier lol


Oh goodness! It's either a huge verification or bust!

Itryatgolf wrote:Ben knoll, who is supposed to be well respected in the weather community, says the euro and ukmet seasonal is harping on -nao for early half of winter. That is the August update. We don't have triple niñas very often so it's difficult to really know how they pan out.


BenNollWeather (AKA, the CEO of Snow) also has this.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1558845907327561730


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#8 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 8:42 am

Might be a front loaded winter. December and January look good for now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#9 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:53 am

The other almanac:
Image
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#neversummer

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#10 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:54 am

WPC is calling for snow in the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico in the next few days. :double:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#11 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:57 pm

La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#12 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:18 pm

Ntxw wrote:La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.


But with all of the troughing that the models have been showing in October for quite some time, this winter is anyone's guess because the Subtropics are way above average and could allow stronger storms in the area with a higher-than-normal risk of an extremely fierce bomb cyclone.

All it takes is one storm to change the snow cover average. And I've noticed that all of the brutal winters coincided with a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#13 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:08 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.


But with all of the troughing that the models have been showing in October for quite some time, this winter is anyone's guess because the Subtropics are way above average and could allow stronger storms in the area with a higher-than-normal risk of an extremely fierce bomb cyclone.

All it takes is one storm to change the snow cover average. And I've noticed that all of the brutal winters coincided with a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Ensembles are showing extensive ridging across North America.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#14 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:36 am

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.


But with all of the troughing that the models have been showing in October for quite some time, this winter is anyone's guess because the Subtropics are way above average and could allow stronger storms in the area with a higher-than-normal risk of an extremely fierce bomb cyclone.

All it takes is one storm to change the snow cover average. And I've noticed that all of the brutal winters coincided with a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Ensembles are showing extensive ridging across North America.


Yeah, the AO is going to be positive for some time. I don't expect any frost or freeze until maybe Late October into November.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#15 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:28 am

I'm late for the news, but the Polar Vortex has showed up, Severe Weather EU said the PV started to show itself in Mid-September
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#16 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:35 am

Mostly for the New England area, but something to consider for here.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1576939628887773186


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#17 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:41 am

Maybe an even crazier winter compared to last year?

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1577746350451486721


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#18 Postby Itryatgolf » Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:28 am


I believe after last December we got more of a poleward Aleutian ridge, which allowed for cold air east of the rockies. The east based niña helped alot imo. If we get more ridging over Alaska and western Canada, we will probably get really cold at times. 3 year niñas are tricky. Not too many analogs to go by. I do feel like February will be alot warmer than previous ones imo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 06, 2022 10:32 am

Itryatgolf wrote:

I believe after last December we got more of a poleward Aleutian ridge, which allowed for cold air east of the rockies. The east based niña helped alot imo. If we get more ridging over Alaska and western Canada, we will probably get really cold at times. 3 year niñas are tricky. Not too many analogs to go by. I do feel like February will be alot warmer than previous ones imo.


I don't think that will be the case, February has been the new December/January in the past few winters.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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