Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7557
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#201 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Dec 04, 2022 4:40 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:GFS past 300 hours finally caving to the other models.

Pumping big ridge into Alaska and connecting with Greenland block. That would spell a cold Christmas week.

I think the dust is finally beginning to settle, but the MJO is in "null". It appears that it may be there for a while.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
txtwister78
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 725
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#202 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Dec 04, 2022 5:11 pm

As others have mentioned before, it appears the target period to watch for cold is going to be from the middle of the month into Christmas week.

Euro ENS has that look.

Image

As does CMC ENS

Image
7 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 20495
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#203 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 04, 2022 5:31 pm

We're still waiting for the block to retrograde into Eastern Canada/Quebec/Newfoundland. That's when the bowling trough will be over the interior US. Just before the 15th the I-40 corridor probably has a storm threat as the trough begins to carve.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Itryatgolf
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 144
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:04 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#204 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:We're still waiting for the block to retrograde into Eastern Canada/Quebec/Newfoundland. That's when the bowling trough will be over the interior US. Just before the 15th the I-40 corridor probably has a storm threat as the trough begins to carve.

Ntxw, correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we want a +EAMT event to pump up the ridge in Alaska and get the -wpo going because a -nao usually benefits people east of us? An Aleutian ridge isn't helping us because it's too flat and not poleward
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 20495
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#205 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:20 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:We're still waiting for the block to retrograde into Eastern Canada/Quebec/Newfoundland. That's when the bowling trough will be over the interior US. Just before the 15th the I-40 corridor probably has a storm threat as the trough begins to carve.

Ntxw, correct me if I'm wrong, but don't we want a +EAMT event to pump up the ridge in Alaska and get the -wpo going because a -nao usually benefits people east of us? An Aleutian ridge isn't helping us because it's too flat and not poleward


In a perfect world yes. But as I noted before you want -AO/-NAO consistently. That is the difference between a 2020-2021 La Nina winter with multiple snow chances and some cold dumps when the EPO/WPO eventually works out. Statistics show in La Nina without that -AO the winter as a whole is a torch.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
TeamPlayersBlue
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3197
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
Location: Denver/Applewood, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#206 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:39 pm

I've never seen ensembles have anything as significant as the blocking its showing 2 weeks out. Usually it's a very low probability.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7557
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#207 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Dec 04, 2022 9:36 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:I've never seen ensembles have anything as significant as the blocking its showing 2 weeks out. Usually it's a very low probability.

You know that this winter has serious potential when that shows up! :cold:
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 504
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#208 Postby TropicalTundra » Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:50 am

I think our best chance for some events is going to be mid-month/ before Christmas with the -NAO over Quebec and alaskan ridge allowing for cold to bleed down the plains (I could be wrong, sorry :lol: ). Some models look interesting for that time frame but right now there's still a lot of variability since it's still too far out. CFS has been going ham on 15th-17th and GFS has been showing on/off. For now it's a waiting game until next weekend/week IMO.
1 likes   
Summer is for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7557
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#209 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:49 am

1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3694
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#210 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 05, 2022 9:48 am

The 0z EPS looks pretty good. Still could improve but definitely looking much better compared to a few days ago.
2 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1292
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#211 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 05, 2022 10:27 am

I’d take a 12/16 to 1/8 cold snap!

Cosgrove this morning….

When Arctic air interacts with the southern branch storm track.

I will admit that the numerical model runs of this past weekend gave me fits, especially the GFS series. The newly revised American model suite put on yet another "nothin' but warm" show, while the ECMWF and GGEM panels slowly turned back to colder solutions, starting in the medium range period. But when you size up the atmosphere around the Northern Hemisphere, it seems apparent that we will return to a mild West vs. cold Central/East alignment.

There are two key drivers to the evolving pattern in North America. One is the building and retrogression of a blocking ridge in Greenland, which looks to shift into Nunavut AR in the third week of this month. The ridge displaces the current Arctic cold pool and 500MB vortex, and forces the chill to stream into coverage to the right of the Continental Divide.

Another factor favoring a more wintry look to the lower 48 states is the southern branch jet stream. Aided by an energy/moisture input form the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and already nudging into the American Southwest, the subtropical wind field will contain disturbances that will wear down the heat ridge complex straddling the southern Gulf of Mexico. The initial impulse should bring heavy rain and thunderstorms in the near term in a belt close to Interstate 40 (Oklahoma City OK to Wilmington NC). But the second and third storms will be stronger, tap into colder air next week, and may yank the snow line further south into the Ohio Valley and middle/upper Appalachia by December 15.

If model projections of the ridge complex near the Arctic Circle verify, we may see another two storms riding the rim of a very cold air mass over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. between December16-25. The CFS platform suggests that this configuration will last until about January 8 2023, then give way to what looks to be a very impressive, ten to fourteen day "January Thaw".
3 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7557
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#212 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:25 am

Quite a difference for December 13th on the 12z GFS compared to the other runs.

Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7557
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#213 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:28 am

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1292
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#214 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:31 am

Iceresistance wrote:Quite a difference for December 13th on the 12z GFS compared to the other runs.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif


Everything keeps correcting our way and getting colder.

I like that 540 line being in Texas and it’s not even the big blast.
2 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 20495
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#215 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:43 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Quite a difference for December 13th on the 12z GFS compared to the other runs.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh192_trend.gif


Everything keeps correcting our way and getting colder.

I like that 540 line being in Texas and it’s not even the big blast.


-AO upper air mass showing up. Cold aloft more than the surface. Spells big storms. Eventually it will decimate the PV anomaly around the Hudson Bay and spill into the southern trofs.
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7557
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#216 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:58 am

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1292
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#217 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:28 pm

All the right Nat Gas advisers and traders are chirping now….
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 36413
Age: 34
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#218 Postby Brent » Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:23 pm

This would be something :double: :spam: the idea of a wintry type storm mid month is definitely still realistic up here

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4725
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#219 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Dec 05, 2022 1:40 pm

Brent wrote:This would be something :double: :spam: the idea of a wintry type storm mid month is definitely still realistic up here

https://i.ibb.co/Rz90848/gfs-asnow-scus-54-1.png


The GFS has been pretty consistent with a storm during that time range but, obviously, it keeps flipping around on the details. This was my fav run for this system lol

Image
1 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7557
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#220 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 05, 2022 3:18 pm

Holy 12z Euro! It's even colder than the Canadian! :eek:

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1599857852427821056


0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, DonWrk, Google [Bot] and 24 guests