Texas Winter 2022-2023

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
txtwister78
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 727
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: San Antonio

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#281 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Dec 06, 2022 2:23 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The Direct Weather guy on YouTube is the worst lol I just watched his latest video and he’s telling everyone now that it looks like the cold isn’t coming.


Kid in his basement that thinks he’s smart because he can read the GFS on TT? :)


Lol yeah. I have no clue what some people are seeing. Basically every sign is pointing towards a cold outbreak.


Sort of like what happened in 2021 (not suggesting that specifically is on the table here) but the reaction from many "enthusiasts" along with a few local mets in my area even at that time was to dismiss that particular pattern potential/setup in favor of daily operational model runs (in that case the Euro) which obviously proved to be out to lunch right up until a few days before the event itself. I think all of us who were on this site then remember that daily contradiction similar to an extent with what the GFS has shown. Ensembles this far out are still your best bet as mets on this site have reinforced.

The big takeaway in my opinion is put your trust in those who have experience in the field and more importantly a track record of being able to recognize these pattern signals (despite the models) over someone doing a bit on a YouTube channel who might very well get an A in software graphics presentation, but beyond that it goes downhill quickly from there. Just saying.

Btw that's not to say that individual shouldn't get an "attaboy" for loving the weather (as we all do). I think as it relates to that aspect, I say more power to him but in the end verify your sources is all. Again, just my .02.
10 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3696
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#282 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:47 pm

The CPC is slowly changing their tune. If only they wouldn’t weigh the GFS so much.
2 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7569
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#283 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 06, 2022 3:58 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The CPC is slowly changing their tune. If only they wouldn’t weigh the GFS so much.

The difference between the GFS and the other models is insane. Their mindset will not go towards a cold wave unless the GFS decides to cave in towards the Euro and CMC.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 36415
Age: 34
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#284 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 06, 2022 4:01 pm

Well one of our TV mets just posted about a cold pattern "brewing" for Christmas so there's that
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7569
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#285 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 06, 2022 4:04 pm

Heat Miser (Wxman57) has not been here lately, I think he's working on the wall and messing with the models!
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3696
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#286 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 06, 2022 4:25 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The CPC is slowly changing their tune. If only they wouldn’t weigh the GFS so much.

The difference between the GFS and the other models is insane. Their mindset will not go towards a cold wave unless the GFS decides to cave in towards the Euro and CMC.


Exactly. They’re not gonna buy in till the GFS comes around.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3032
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#287 Postby SoupBone » Tue Dec 06, 2022 5:20 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Most of the model guidance outside of the GFS continues to indicate well below normal temperatures returning during the 7-14 day time period. Confidence is pretty high for that far out that our warm pattern will be coming to an end by late next week.



If not, I hold you personally accountable.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7569
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#288 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 06, 2022 6:20 pm

If we have a silver lining with the stubborn -PNA, we also have a -NAO that refuses to become more positive.

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/nao.gefs.sprd2.png
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7569
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#289 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:29 pm

0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Itryatgolf
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 147
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:04 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#290 Postby Itryatgolf » Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:37 pm

I think we need to focus on the mjo and it's progression. I know there has been convection in IO, perhaps from a tropical system. I believe that's important because western hemisphere forcing is better than eastern hemisphere if you want a better opportunity at a cold pattern. Something we need to really focus on moving forward :eek:
1 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1293
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#291 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:59 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:I think we need to focus on the mjo and it's progression. I know there has been convection in IO, perhaps from a tropical system. I believe that's important because western hemisphere forcing is better than eastern hemisphere if you want a better opportunity at a cold pattern. Something we need to really focus on moving forward :eek:


On a side note. I love the username! :)
1 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 504
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#292 Postby TropicalTundra » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:45 am

71 degrees and 96% humidity at 2 AM. I can’t even keep the window open :oops:
0 likes   
Summer is for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7569
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#293 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:50 am

SPC now has severe weather for the Southern Plains and parts of Dixie Alley on 12/12 and 12/13. This is getting weird!
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1293
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#294 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:12 am

All the major models agreeing on 500mb setup now. Big change starting early-mid week next week.
2 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3696
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#295 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:02 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:All the major models agreeing on 500mb setup now. Big change starting early-mid week next week.


I didn’t even look at the models this morning when I woke up like I normally would because I was too scared they were gonna start changing because I wasn’t getting very good vibes yesterday by the lack of activity on here and couldn’t really find anyone else on social media talking about it either. Was getting the feeling that it was fading away.

I’m probably the only one that does that :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1293
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#296 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:10 am

Cpv17 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:All the major models agreeing on 500mb setup now. Big change starting early-mid week next week.


I didn’t even look at the models this morning when I woke up like I normally would because I was too scared they were gonna start changing because I wasn’t getting very good vibes yesterday by the lack of activity on here and couldn’t really find anyone else on social media talking about it either. Was getting the feeling that it was fading away.

I’m probably the only one that does that :lol:


It’s quiet because the front is a little less than 7 days away.
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3696
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#297 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:11 am

TropicalTundra wrote:71 degrees and 96% humidity at 2 AM. I can’t even keep the window open :oops:


The fog is so bad out there this morning. Visibility is near 0 down here. Ridiculous.
0 likes   

User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7569
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#298 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:14 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:All the major models agreeing on 500mb setup now. Big change starting early-mid week next week.

I think that the 'Upgrade' messed up the GFS model for a while, but now it has settled down.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

My posts are NOT Endorsed by S2K, NHC or SPC, please look up the SPC, NHC & NWS for more info.

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3696
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#299 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:31 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:All the major models agreeing on 500mb setup now. Big change starting early-mid week next week.


I didn’t even look at the models this morning when I woke up like I normally would because I was too scared they were gonna start changing because I wasn’t getting very good vibes yesterday by the lack of activity on here and couldn’t really find anyone else on social media talking about it either. Was getting the feeling that it was fading away.

I’m probably the only one that does that :lol:


It’s quiet because the front is a little less than 7 days away.


Maybe it’s just me being a natural pessimist. I suppose things will start to crank up around here and on social media soon.
0 likes   

User avatar
ThunderSleetDreams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1293
Age: 40
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#300 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:57 am

From Anthony Masiello regarding MJO:

Another quick post, this time on the MJO:

The signal has not been a real MJO for the last couple of weeks. Instead, it's higher frequency waves (KW/ER) with extratropical feedback from the blocking patterns inducing the wind anomalies in the Tropics. The eastern hemisphere firing up this month was anticipated as instability from extratropical influence ignites Walker Cell uplift. What you're seeing on the plots ahead is the ER induced TCs on both sides of the IO equator. This signal carries well into extended range with ensemble mean CHI fields averaging negative here, esp. in the southern IO. However, the state of the W PAC is less clear on them so while averaging out it seems like a weak to no signal. The MJO however will emerge across the W PAC during second half of Dec once the TC situation is resolved. The intensification of the subtropical W PAC high is already underway within 1-2 weeks (with typhoon BTW) and this extends the N. Pac jet (and starts dropping the EPO). RMMs will look anemic when they have 1 signal continuing over the S IO and the other progressing over Indo/W. Pac. Stay level-headed during this process.
0 likes   
#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bubba hotep, cstrunk, gpsnowman, orangeblood and 15 guests