Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#341 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:50 pm

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#342 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:59 pm

The TWC app has me barely above freezing the several days at the beginning of Christmas week :cold: by far the coldest forecast I've seen this winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#343 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:40 pm

The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out! :eek:
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#344 Postby harp » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:49 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out! :eek:

For what regions?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#345 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:51 pm

harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out! :eek:

For what regions?

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and maybe NW Louisiana.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#346 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:52 pm

Geez, I get on and have 3 pages to read through. Getting busy. I think Wxman's cautious approach is warranted, but I think the signs are there for some good stuff. I really don't mind the warmth for now since it's just early December, but it would be nice to have some cold and if I'm lucky some snow over Christmas. We will be in Abilene for Christmas, and I believe it was 2009 we had a great snow there on Christmas eve. Then, going to Kansas for the 29th or so coming back the 1st for my family. It would be nice to see some snow there if I miss it here. There was one geat year we went up for the holidays despite the weather because we thought it would be a small storm of maybe 3-4 inches (and I thought we would beat it there....). It ended up being much worse, with ice in OK and then close to home it was a raging blizzard they couldn't clear the highway fast enough. Ended up with almost a foot at my house and our little Prius pushed the snow in the driveway.
Last edited by rwfromkansas on Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#347 Postby WinterMax » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:53 pm

harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out! :eek:

For what regions?


I think he’s in OKC
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#348 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 2:55 pm

WinterMax wrote:
harp wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out! :eek:

For what regions?


I think he’s in OKC

Tecumseh, OK to be exact, but fair enough if you want to reference the biggest city in Central Oklahoma to know my general location. :)

Also, welcome back! :D
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#349 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 3:02 pm

I decided to add the image for Y'all to see what I'm talking about on the 12z GEFS.

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2022120712-GEFS-SGP-winter-meansnacc-312-384-100.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#350 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:12 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:


That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.


I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#351 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:19 pm

Brent wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:


That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.


I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something


The way that is worded kinda contradicts itselfz.

Are you saying he’s dropping hints the cold is coming but his graphics show zero cold?
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#352 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:24 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Brent wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.


I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something


The way that is worded kinda contradicts itselfz.

Are you saying he’s dropping hints the cold is coming but his graphics show zero cold?


It's all beyond 7 days is the issue
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#353 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 07, 2022 4:27 pm

Brent wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Brent wrote:
I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something


The way that is worded kinda contradicts itselfz.

Are you saying he’s dropping hints the cold is coming but his graphics show zero cold?


It's all beyond 7 days is the issue


Well yeah. We all know that. Next Wednesday is seasonal and it gets below on Thursday and well below on Friday.

I’m not questioning if the cold is coming. It is. You can see it across the board and there is no fly in the ointment.

The question is how cold and what type of precip, if any, although I’d be shocked if we didn’t see any precip given the current setup.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#354 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:19 pm

As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#355 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:21 pm

Cpv17 wrote:As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!


He knows it is coming. You have to respect he is great at trolling some of y’all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#356 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:25 pm

Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#357 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.

Happy Hour as usual!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#358 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.


What does that mean? :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#359 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:33 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!


He knows it is coming. You have to respect he is great at trolling some of y’all.


Yeah I think he knows it’s coming but I believe he really isn’t sold yet on the direction and he could be leaning towards us only getting a glancing blow. At least that’s how I perceived it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#360 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:43 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!


He knows it is coming. You have to respect he is great at trolling some of y’all.


Yeah I think he knows it’s coming but I believe he really isn’t sold yet on the direction and he could be leaning towards us only getting a glancing blow. At least that’s how I perceived it.


I see nothing that suggests a moderately or extremely positive PNA in the next two to three weeks. Negative NAO, negative EPO… high latitude blocking across the board.

A slightly positive PNA still puts us squarely in the mix although the forecast is for it to remain neutral to slightly negative.

Hell, I’m almost to the point where I won’t be expecting anything north of 65 degrees the rest of the month once we pass the 15th.
Last edited by ThunderSleetDreams on Wed Dec 07, 2022 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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