Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

I like precipitation placement as a proxy for svr wx potential in the globals. That is some serious streaking on the 12z Euro.

[harp]

So puzzling because all indications are the cold is coming. I guess we just wait and see…nothing to get excited about on this run either.

[txtwister78]

So puzzling because all indications are the cold is coming. I guess we just wait and see…nothing to get excited about on this run either.

The cold is coming. I think it comes down to what your definition of "cold" is. Ensembles haven't really changed.

[bubba hotep]

So puzzling because all indications are the cold is coming. I guess we just wait and see…nothing to get excited about on this run either.

The cold is coming. I think it comes down to what your definition of "cold" is. Ensembles haven't really changed.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670522400/1671321600-7WgLlNFpXY8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670500800/1671559200-G1TdeYHFZvs.png

Ensembles look good for sure and remember that they are smoothing out the extremes, esp. in the longer range. Now, if people want to talk about the OP. This would probably result in record cold if it went out beyond 400 hrs lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So puzzling because all indications are the cold is coming. I guess we just wait and see…nothing to get excited about on this run either.

The cold is coming. I think it comes down to what your definition of "cold" is. Ensembles haven't really changed.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670522400/1671321600-7WgLlNFpXY8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670500800/1671559200-G1TdeYHFZvs.png

Ensembles look good for sure and remember that they are smoothing out the extremes, esp. in the longer range. Now, if people want to talk about the OP. This would probably result in record cold if it went out beyond 400 hrs lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_T850a_namer_65.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_65.png

Do I see a McFarland Sig there?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So puzzling because all indications are the cold is coming. I guess we just wait and see…nothing to get excited about on this run either.

The cold is coming. I think it comes down to what your definition of "cold" is. Ensembles haven't really changed.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670522400/1671321600-7WgLlNFpXY8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670500800/1671559200-G1TdeYHFZvs.png

Ensembles look good for sure and remember that they are smoothing out the extremes, esp. in the longer range. Now, if people want to talk about the OP. This would probably result in record cold if it went out beyond 400 hrs lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_T850a_namer_65.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_65.png

Do I see a McFarland Sig there?

[Ntxw]

So puzzling because all indications are the cold is coming. I guess we just wait and see…nothing to get excited about on this run either.

The cold is coming. I think it comes down to what your definition of "cold" is. Ensembles haven't really changed.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670522400/1671321600-7WgLlNFpXY8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670500800/1671559200-G1TdeYHFZvs.png

Ensembles look good for sure and remember that they are smoothing out the extremes, esp. in the longer range. Now, if people want to talk about the OP. This would probably result in record cold if it went out beyond 400 hrs lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_T850a_namer_65.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_65.png

We just haven't reached that frame yet. It's fuzzy until it comes you just see blinks of it. What's clear is middle of next week the first cold snap will occur to what you would expect December to be, for below normal. -AO/-NAO keeps it in place as it has no where else to go, until the next spoke of cold air dips down. 144+ hours will be on and off until it gets closer. This is how long duration events happen or tend to play out is what to make of the ENS.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The cold is coming. I think it comes down to what your definition of "cold" is. Ensembles haven't really changed.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670522400/1671321600-7WgLlNFpXY8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_c_anom/1670500800/1671559200-G1TdeYHFZvs.png

Ensembles look good for sure and remember that they are smoothing out the extremes, esp. in the longer range. Now, if people want to talk about the OP. This would probably result in record cold if it went out beyond 400 hrs lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_T850a_namer_65.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022120818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_65.png

We just haven't reached that frame yet. It's fuzzy until it comes you just see blinks of it. What's clear is middle of next week the first cold snap will occur to what you would expect December to be, for below normal. -AO/-NAO keeps it in place as it has no where else to go, until the next spoke of cold air dips down. 144+ hours will be on and off until it gets closer. This is how long duration events happen or tend to play out is what to make of the ENS.

Was listening to an East Coast trader today who mentioned this. His feeling was Christmas to New Years looked colder than the week leading up to Christmas.

That would make sense if you believe this pattern doesn’t end until early-mid January.

[Itryatgolf]

Does anyone have the wpo teleconnection map they can post?

[Iceresistance]

Does anyone have the wpo teleconnection map they can post?

I sadly don't have it, it's hard finding one compared to the NAO, AO, EPO, and PNA.

[Iceresistance]

Why is no one noticing a thunderstorm going through DFW right now?

[Itryatgolf]

Does anyone have the wpo teleconnection map they can post?

I sadly don't have it, it's hard finding one compared to the NAO, AO, EPO, and PNA.

Usually when it's negative, it can tap true Siberian air and send it south. Epo/wpo work together

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Does anyone have the wpo teleconnection map they can post?

I used to have it saved but the NOAA discontinued it during Covid.

[Ntxw]

Does anyone have the wpo teleconnection map they can post?

I sadly don't have it, it's hard finding one compared to the NAO, AO, EPO, and PNA.

Usually when it's negative, it can tap true Siberian air and send it south. Epo/wpo work together

WPO is basically the East Siberian/Bering Seas region. Ridging in this area is negative. It tends to tie along with the EPO when you have a big dive, so in essence it will be negative by influence of the large -EPO. They tend to go hand in hand similar to AO/NAO, similar concept.

[Itryatgolf]

I sadly don't have it, it's hard finding one compared to the NAO, AO, EPO, and PNA.

Usually when it's negative, it can tap true Siberian air and send it south. Epo/wpo work together

WPO is basically the East Siberian/Bering Seas region. Ridging in this area is negative. It tends to tie along with the EPO when you have a big dive, so in essence it will be negative by influence of the large -EPO. They tend to go hand in hand similar to AO/NAO, similar concept.

I know JB is a hypist to get ratings and clients, but he is smart. There is a reason the Dec 1983 was the grandaddy of them all on cold outbreaks. No sign of anything remotely that cold coming here imo

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Usually when it's negative, it can tap true Siberian air and send it south. Epo/wpo work together

WPO is basically the East Siberian/Bering Seas region. Ridging in this area is negative. It tends to tie along with the EPO when you have a big dive, so in essence it will be negative by influence of the large -EPO. They tend to go hand in hand similar to AO/NAO, similar concept.

I know JB is a hypist to get ratings and clients, but he is smart. There is a reason the Dec 1983 was the grandaddy of them all on cold outbreaks. No sign of anything remotely that cold coming here imo

2021 was much colder. 1983 was a long duration event below freezing but it never bottomed out like 2021 and 1989 did. Lot of 20s and mid-upper teens depending on where you were.

I could absolutely see a long duration event. As long as 1983? That would be tough.

[Ntxw]

WPO is basically the East Siberian/Bering Seas region. Ridging in this area is negative. It tends to tie along with the EPO when you have a big dive, so in essence it will be negative by influence of the large -EPO. They tend to go hand in hand similar to AO/NAO, similar concept.

I know JB is a hypist to get ratings and clients, but he is smart. There is a reason the Dec 1983 was the grandaddy of them all on cold outbreaks. No sign of anything remotely that cold coming here imo

2021 was much colder. 1983 was a long duration event below freezing but it never bottomed out like 2021 and 1989 did. Lot of 20s and mid-upper teens depending on where you were.

I could absolutely see a long duration event. As long as 1983? That would be tough.

For the northern half of the state the intensity of 2021 was greater. DFW's -40s departure below normal is only matched by 1899. 1983 wins on duration.

Similar patterns don't always result in similar temperatures, air masses are different in different times. It's still likely to produce something substantial.

[Cpv17]

There’s no reason for us to think this can’t produce something historic. Literally every sign that I possibly know of is pointing towards it. Now will it happen is the million dollar question. I think it will but we just don’t know the extent yet.

[Ntxw]

There’s no reason for us to think this can’t produce something historic. Literally every sign that I possibly know of is pointing towards it. Now will it happen is the million dollar question. I think it will but we just don’t know the extent yet.

The only hesitation is, December is really early in the winter. The best quality of cold tends to happen in January and Feb. There isn't -50s or -60s in Canada to deliver. But with a good driver pattern you'll get the most of whatever is up there.

[Iceresistance]

There’s no reason for us to think this can’t produce something historic. Literally every sign that I possibly know of is pointing towards it. Now will it happen is the million dollar question. I think it will but we just don’t know the extent yet.

The only hesitation is, December is really early in the winter. The best quality of cold tends to happen in January and Feb. There isn't -50s or -60s in Canada to deliver. But with a good driver pattern you'll get the most of whatever is up there.

Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!