Texas Winter 2022-2023

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#661 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Dec 10, 2022 12:02 am

Ntxw wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:GFS dropping the hammer 4 days from Christmas…. Let’s see how this ends


Yeah I think if you've got all that arctic air, it's coming south much faster than what it depicts on this run. This is that typical model feedback issue with the Rockies where it dams the air up and "holds" it on the model.

Regardless it looks very Euroish though so at least we're starting to see some alignment (at least on this run).


This is why it's so valuable at this lead time to put weight on the ensembles. The OPs do their dance but eventually they will converge towards the ENS.


Agree 100%. I've been on that same train this far out but you can definitely see where this is going.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#662 Postby TexasF6 » Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:15 am

Where's Porta??? Will there be Grey Goose? The Charger? And will the grid hold so we can enjoy the cold?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#663 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:34 am

I'm still not seeing anything in the way of extreme cold. Temps in northern BC and Alberta are just barely below zero. Similar for the NW Territory. It can't come down here if it's not up there. Watch western Canada for a large area of temps -25 to -35F over the coming week to see if any cold air really develops up there. If it does, then maybe there's a chance of sub-freezing temps in Texas. For now, no really cold air in the source region means no really cold air for Texas.

Meanwhile, overnight GFS is not forecasting 80s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day here in Houston. That would be great. :onfire:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#664 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Dec 10, 2022 8:36 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm still not seeing anything in the way of extreme cold. Temps in northern BC and Alberta are just barely below zero. Similar for the NW Territory. It can't come down here if it's not up there. Watch western Canada for a large area of temps -25 to -35F over the coming week to see if any cold air really develops up there. If it does, then maybe there's a chance of sub-freezing temps in Texas. For now, no really cold air in the source region means no really cold air for Texas.

Meanwhile, overnight GFS is not forecasting 80s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day here in Houston. That would be great. :onfire:


You won’t be seeing 70s and 80s for a long time after this Tuesday. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#665 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:06 am

What I've always said in the winter is that you need to monitor the airmass in the source region - western Canada. Flow there needs to come from the Polar region in order to build an Arctic airmass. Currently, neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates a flow pattern that would drive air from the Pole to NW Canada. Both indicate that the flow will be coming from the west or northwest, which would be Pacific air. Until we see any indication of cross-Polar flow, I won't be concerned about any extreme cold in Texas. I know that many of you actually like winter and winter weather. I like snow, too. It's the only good use for sub-80F air. Just because some ensemble members indicate very cold air doesn't mean it'll happen. Others indicate very warm air. I was on board with last winter's cold outbreak 10 days before it happened. Similar for the February 2021 event. I was buying pipe insulation 8 days ahead of the outbreak. If I see the cold coming, I will let you know.

Watch the surface temps in the source region. They'd need to be a good 30F colder than they are now for any Arctic outbreak. Until it gets very cold up there I wouldn't get too excited about very cold weather down here. We may have to wait until January or February again for the pattern to change.

Just checked Houston climo. We've hit exactly 82F for the previous 5 days. At least 82 again today. It's 70 now in SW Houston. In another couple of hours it will be warm enough for a bike ride.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#666 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:18 am

wxman57 wrote:What I've always said in the winter is that you need to monitor the airmass in the source region - western Canada. Flow there needs to come from the Polar region in order to build an Arctic airmass. Currently, neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates a flow pattern that would drive air from the Pole to NW Canada. Both indicate that the flow will be coming from the west or northwest, which would be Pacific air. Until we see any indication of cross-Polar flow, I won't be concerned about any extreme cold in Texas. I know that many of you actually like winter and winter weather. I like snow, too. It's the only good use for sub-80F air. Just because some ensemble members indicate very cold air doesn't mean it'll happen. Others indicate very warm air. I was on board with last winter's cold outbreak 10 days before it happened. Similar for the February 2021 event. I was buying pipe insulation 8 days ahead of the outbreak. If I see the cold coming, I will let you know.

Watch the surface temps in the source region. They'd need to be a good 30F colder than they are now for any Arctic outbreak. Until it gets very cold up there I wouldn't get too excited about very cold weather down here. We may have to wait until January or February again for the pattern to change.

Just checked Houston climo. We've hit exactly 82F for the previous 5 days. At least 82 again today. It's 70 now in SW Houston. In another couple of hours it will be warm enough for a bike ride.



There are far more ensemble members that are cold than those that are warm.

Man, you’re the only one I follow in the weather sphere that’s not buying a pretty damn cold end to December (that’s relative to the person). And I follow a lot of of personalities.

I can see a scenario where we have a cool end to December. 40s and 50s for highs. It’s not going to be warm any time past 12/14, at least by SETX standards. I think you know that though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#667 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 10, 2022 9:28 am

Had anyone noticed the broad Marginal Risk for most of Texas for today?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#668 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:40 am

Looks like the 12z ICON got the CPC memo with snow for the Red River valley to I-20.

Also reminder to remain progressive in talks rather than directing at any poster, specifically a well respected met.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#669 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:47 am

Ntxw wrote:Looks like the 12z ICON got the CPC memo with snow for the Red River valley to I-20.

Also reminder to remain progressive in talks rather than directing at any poster, specifically a well respected met.

Well, here comes King ICON!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#670 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:52 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Looks like the 12z ICON got the CPC memo with snow for the Red River valley to I-20.

Also reminder to remain progressive in talks rather than directing at any poster, specifically a well respected met.

Well, here comes King ICON!


Yeah we don't need brutal cold for that. Behind the midweek large pinwheel system the upper levels will be chilly enough! Need a good shortwave to kick up some moisture.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#671 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 10, 2022 10:58 am

Northern-Central Canada is seeding Siberian/Arctic air late in the run on the 12z ICON. Starting to come into that range for it as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#672 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:05 am

Check this thread out! Professionally done by griteater!

 https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1601600823900839936


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#673 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:06 am

12z GFS looks different in the short-medium range, too has a shortwave coming down behind the upper system vs the ridging it had prior. Might not have the ICON outcome with snow but it's a step forward.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#674 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:15 am

One thing, whichc will be key, will be the maintaining of blocking in Eastern Canada. The models have been all over the place with what will happen with this monster plains low in 5 days. Showing everything from a nor'easter, to it sheering out. A nor'easter would bring a west based -NAO, and hold the block in place. This would be great.

Either way, -EPO will be necessary, but I'm just being picky.

Remember, keep watching the Ensembles. I've never seen the 06z EFS look the way it did today in the long range. It's perfectly drawn for snow lovers.

Trying to post a pic here, but i didnt for a while and essentially forgot. I'll figure it out later.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#675 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:16 am

Those in NTX and Oklahoma will definitely take the 12z GFS for next weekend. Still got to find surface moisture on it, but the key pieces are there this run for a snow event. 7 days out you take those chances.

Also FYI very cold air is building in Canada on it too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#676 Postby lukem » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:19 am

wxman57 wrote:What I've always said in the winter is that you need to monitor the airmass in the source region - western Canada. Flow there needs to come from the Polar region in order to build an Arctic airmass. Currently, neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates a flow pattern that would drive air from the Pole to NW Canada. Both indicate that the flow will be coming from the west or northwest, which would be Pacific air. Until we see any indication of cross-Polar flow, I won't be concerned about any extreme cold in Texas. I know that many of you actually like winter and winter weather. I like snow, too. It's the only good use for sub-80F air. Just because some ensemble members indicate very cold air doesn't mean it'll happen. Others indicate very warm air. I was on board with last winter's cold outbreak 10 days before it happened. Similar for the February 2021 event. I was buying pipe insulation 8 days ahead of the outbreak. If I see the cold coming, I will let you know.

Watch the surface temps in the source region. They'd need to be a good 30F colder than they are now for any Arctic outbreak. Until it gets very cold up there I wouldn't get too excited about very cold weather down here. We may have to wait until January or February again for the pattern to change.

Just checked Houston climo. We've hit exactly 82F for the previous 5 days. At least 82 again today. It's 70 now in SW Houston. In another couple of hours it will be warm enough for a bike ride.

I remember you making this exact same argument several times in the past on this kind of setup and being right. I think it’s going to be cold, but I remember a lot more consensus in 2021.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#677 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:22 am

This is a dream come true map at the upper levels! Deep Arctic air surging south with a longwave trough across the US, it will pour and shortwaves line up way out into the Pacific.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#678 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:23 am

lukem wrote:
wxman57 wrote:What I've always said in the winter is that you need to monitor the airmass in the source region - western Canada. Flow there needs to come from the Polar region in order to build an Arctic airmass. Currently, neither the GFS nor the Euro indicates a flow pattern that would drive air from the Pole to NW Canada. Both indicate that the flow will be coming from the west or northwest, which would be Pacific air. Until we see any indication of cross-Polar flow, I won't be concerned about any extreme cold in Texas. I know that many of you actually like winter and winter weather. I like snow, too. It's the only good use for sub-80F air. Just because some ensemble members indicate very cold air doesn't mean it'll happen. Others indicate very warm air. I was on board with last winter's cold outbreak 10 days before it happened. Similar for the February 2021 event. I was buying pipe insulation 8 days ahead of the outbreak. If I see the cold coming, I will let you know.

Watch the surface temps in the source region. They'd need to be a good 30F colder than they are now for any Arctic outbreak. Until it gets very cold up there I wouldn't get too excited about very cold weather down here. We may have to wait until January or February again for the pattern to change.

Just checked Houston climo. We've hit exactly 82F for the previous 5 days. At least 82 again today. It's 70 now in SW Houston. In another couple of hours it will be warm enough for a bike ride.

I remember you making this exact same argument several times in the past on this kind of setup and being right. I think it’s going to be cold, but I remember a lot more consensus in 2021.



You’re not remembering 2021 very well then. There was little consensus until a few days out. Even Mets disagreed.

There’s more consensus now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#679 Postby harp » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:31 am

Here comes the mother load of cold!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#680 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 10, 2022 11:31 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:You’re not remembering 2021 very well then. There was little consensus until a few days out. Even Mets disagreed.

There’s more consensus now.


At around 240hrs we've seen the GFS and Euro kind of agree now for that range. Now that we're into the 170-200hr range all the guidance agrees a very cold air mass will develop. IF the cards are played right, assuming eventually the models way underestimate the strength of cold/and or the drivers, next weekend for some areas in the northern parts of the state might begin a long duration freeze.
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