Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.

[Sambucol]

Does it look like SETX will be in the ice?

[Cpv17]

Does it look like SETX will be in the ice?

It’s probably too early for anything to be ruled in or out at this point.

[Iceresistance]

I do factor that the Shallow Arctic Air could make it as far south as San Antonio because it generally ignores the upper-level patterns, it all depends on how far south the front goes.

[Gotwood]

The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.

Question is how long does it last.

[wxman57]

Does it look like SETX will be in the ice?

I don't see anything to indicate any ice issues in SE TX. Only the Canadian model has a brief light freeze for SE TX in 9 days.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.

Question is how long does it last.

Multi-Day event for me. Monday through Friday by 3 seperate systems.

[Portastorm]

The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.

Question is how long does it last.

The 12z Euro provides ice for portions of Texas from Wichita Falls down southwest to the Midland-Odessa area. Lasts about 24 hours from Tuesday AM to Wednesday AM. Everyone else (in Texas) gets cold rain.

[Iceresistance]

Hmmmm


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus-1.gif

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1618679612946644992

[Cpv17]

Newest CPC forecast looks meehhh. Hopefully it gets colder than what they have. Looks like they’re putting some weight into the operationals.

[rwfromkansas]

Newest CPC forecast looks meehhh. Hopefully it gets colder than what they have. Looks like they’re putting some weight into the operationals.

I won't be too worried about that unless it shows the same Sunday or so. They always seem to be pretty conservative.

[Cpv17]

Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.

[orangeblood]

Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.

Not really, after brief warm up next weekend, all Ensembles reload this pattern with Ridge into Alaska/Cross Polar flow again for the following week

CMC ENS


Euro ENS

[Cpv17]

Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.

Not really, after brief warm up next weekend, all Ensembles reload this pattern with Ridge into Alaska/Cross Polar flow again for the following week

CMC ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ybwlohwggGg.png

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ZDucC0XzqhU.png

Hmmm, ok. The GEFS looked different. Haven’t looked at the other models yet.

[orangeblood]

Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.

Not really, after brief warm up next weekend, all Ensembles reload this pattern with Ridge into Alaska/Cross Polar flow again for the following week

CMC ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ybwlohwggGg.png

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ZDucC0XzqhU.png

Hmmm, ok. The GEFS looked different. Haven’t looked at the other models yet.

Here's the GEFS...it is just a few days behind the others in reloading the pattern. All is not lost Cpv17!!!!

[Ntxw]

The long range guidance has not performed well over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska. They have time and again tried to retrograde and bring low heights over these two regions only to flip it. I think SSTs says no to low heights.



Example of a year that was opposite where low heights were favored in the EPO below.

[Iceresistance]

Holy moly, the Trough that will begin the winter weather in the Southern Plains has already trended stronger compared to 12z on the 18z GFS

[Iceresistance]

Does the GFS have a dry bias or something?

[bubba hotep]

With a +AO/NAO there is nothing to slow the TPV down, and it just screams eastward. That, combined with the Pacific flow, doesn't really leave much in the way of cold that can get really far south. What cold does peel off moderates pretty quickly. Probably for the best; not really interested in freezing rain.