Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4621 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:00 pm

The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4622 Postby Sambucol » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:02 pm

Does it look like SETX will be in the ice?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4623 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:05 pm

Sambucol wrote:Does it look like SETX will be in the ice?


It’s probably too early for anything to be ruled in or out at this point.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4624 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:16 pm

I do factor that the Shallow Arctic Air could make it as far south as San Antonio because it generally ignores the upper-level patterns, it all depends on how far south the front goes.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4625 Postby Gotwood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:17 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.

Question is how long does it last.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4626 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:20 pm

Sambucol wrote:Does it look like SETX will be in the ice?


I don't see anything to indicate any ice issues in SE TX. Only the Canadian model has a brief light freeze for SE TX in 9 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4627 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:22 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.

Question is how long does it last.

Multi-Day event for me. Monday through Friday by 3 seperate systems.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4628 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:24 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The Euro is now taking note of this too, oh boy.

Question is how long does it last.


The 12z Euro provides ice for portions of Texas from Wichita Falls down southwest to the Midland-Odessa area. Lasts about 24 hours from Tuesday AM to Wednesday AM. Everyone else (in Texas) gets cold rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4629 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:44 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4630 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:10 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4631 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:31 pm

Newest CPC forecast looks meehhh. Hopefully it gets colder than what they have. Looks like they’re putting some weight into the operationals.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4632 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:02 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Newest CPC forecast looks meehhh. Hopefully it gets colder than what they have. Looks like they’re putting some weight into the operationals.


I won't be too worried about that unless it shows the same Sunday or so. They always seem to be pretty conservative.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4633 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:04 pm

Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4634 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:10 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.


Not really, after brief warm up next weekend, all Ensembles reload this pattern with Ridge into Alaska/Cross Polar flow again for the following week

CMC ENS
Image

Euro ENS
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4635 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:15 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.


Not really, after brief warm up next weekend, all Ensembles reload this pattern with Ridge into Alaska/Cross Polar flow again for the following week

CMC ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ybwlohwggGg.png

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ZDucC0XzqhU.png


Hmmm, ok. The GEFS looked different. Haven’t looked at the other models yet.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4636 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:25 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Just looked at the 12z GEFS. It looks pretty crappy once we get past the first few days of February. Troughing in Alaska.


Not really, after brief warm up next weekend, all Ensembles reload this pattern with Ridge into Alaska/Cross Polar flow again for the following week

CMC ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ybwlohwggGg.png

Euro ENS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/z500_anom/1674734400/1675922400-ZDucC0XzqhU.png


Hmmm, ok. The GEFS looked different. Haven’t looked at the other models yet.


Here's the GEFS...it is just a few days behind the others in reloading the pattern. All is not lost Cpv17!!!!
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4637 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:28 pm

The long range guidance has not performed well over the Northeast Pacific and Alaska. They have time and again tried to retrograde and bring low heights over these two regions only to flip it. I think SSTs says no to low heights.

Image

Example of a year that was opposite where low heights were favored in the EPO below.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4638 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:56 pm

Holy moly, the Trough that will begin the winter weather in the Southern Plains has already trended stronger compared to 12z on the 18z GFS
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4639 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:10 pm

Does the GFS have a dry bias or something?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4640 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:26 pm

With a +AO/NAO there is nothing to slow the TPV down, and it just screams eastward. That, combined with the Pacific flow, doesn't really leave much in the way of cold that can get really far south. What cold does peel off moderates pretty quickly. Probably for the best; not really interested in freezing rain.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.


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