Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our local forecast seems to have trended colder but with less precip.

[bubba hotep]

12z ICON coming up first. The 06z did trend colder vs 00z and it has precipitation across DFW with temps below 30F in many areas. So even with a stout warm layer that is probably cold enough to cause issues.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1618935929594576896

[orangeblood]

12z ICON coming up first. The 06z did trend colder vs 00z and it has precipitation across DFW with temps below 30F in many areas. So even with a stout warm layer that is probably cold enough to cause issues.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2023012706/icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_39.png

The irony is the heavier the precip, the better for keeping the ground above freezing as it promotes more transport of the 700-850mb warm air down to the surface. The lighter the precip, less transport and likely more freezing issues!

[TropicalTundra]

Are we seriously throwing in the towel after all the hype for this one? I’m inclined to think this is a tad premature but who knows.

We DON’T need ice. It’s going to cause way too many problems with travel and power. Snow, sleet, or rain is fine. I’ve been through at least 5 ice storms since 2/21. Getting sick of it.

[Tammie]

Are we seriously throwing in the towel after all the hype for this one? I’m inclined to think this is a tad premature but who knows.

Would be unwise to say something is done when it hasn't happened yet.

We've had the cold, we've had a little snow. Any freezing rain prospect is just not that exciting to some.

Not necessarily exciting in terms of wanting it to happen but more like preparing for a big game. When you’ve got 60 heifers having their first calves and you know you’ll be out in it trying to save lives and help them out you kinda get this adrenaline rush sort of thing if that makes sense lol.

That one paragraph brought back a flood of memories! Being raised on a ranch in north Texas in the late sixties through the 70’s… Can’t tell you how many calves we brought into the house in January and February during icing events to thaw them out and keep them alive. Really good times looking back now.

[JDawg512]

All I want is rain.. just rain, no frozen stuff but all liquid stuff. My feelings after Feb 2021 haven't changed. I'm on team Heatmiser if it means never dealing with even the slightest bit of ice.... I would make an exception for pure snow, but I've had my fill of snow to last a lifetime from the winter storm that I'm quite content if I don't see snow again..

Bring on the rain!

[Gotwood]

Are we seriously throwing in the towel after all the hype for this one? I’m inclined to think this is a tad premature but who knows.

We DON’T need ice. It’s going to cause way too many problems with travel and power. Snow, sleet, or rain is fine. I’ve been through at least 5 ice storms since 2/21. Getting sick of it.

I don’t think anyone wants it but we need to know if it’s coming so we can prepare accordingly.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW Area morning discussion 1/27/23

Though not the most favorable pattern for an arctic intrusion,
low-level cold advection will persist throughout the upcoming
week. An approaching trough will maintain turbulent southwesterly
flow aloft and a protracted period of unsettled weather.
Considerable cloud cover and occasional precipitation will keep
daytime temperatures well below normal. The timing of individual
rounds and resulting amounts will be governed by sub-synoptic
features that shouldn`t be perfect-progged at these time scales,
but the highest PoPs and QPF will be focused within Central and
East Texas where temperatures are likely to remain safely above
freezing. And with minimal wet-bulb potential, it`s unlikely that
these areas would experience a transition to wintry
precipitation.

However, daily precipitation chances will also prevail in areas
north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex where the
mercury will dip below freezing each morning during the upcoming
workweek. Profiles suggest that the precipitation processes will
occur within a cloud layer with temperatures as warm as the 40s.
This means liquid rain falling into a sub-freezing surface layer,
the depth of which should be too shallow to support frozen
precipitation (pellets). Despite minimum surface temperatures in
the 20s across our north and west, these raindrops may be both
sufficiently warm and sufficiently large to limit ice
accumulation. Though if lighter precipitation occurs, the downward
heat transfer would be reduced, enhancing the ice accretion
potential. While forecast highs are above freezing each day, more
significant precipitation and resulting glaze would require
lowering daytime temperatures.

This will come down to Monday and we see exactly how cold the upperlayers are and what the surface temps do. Either way it's going to be a nasty week of below normal temps and cold precip.

[bubba hotep]

12z ICON and 12z GFS both came in warmer. Also, both are shifting the rain eastward. Things certainly seem to be trending towards a glancing blow of seasonally cold air that moderates rather quickly.

[Ntxw]

12z ICON and 12z GFS both came in warmer. Also, both are shifting the rain eastward. Things certainly seem to be trending towards a glancing blow of seasonally cold air that moderates rather quickly.

Winter cancel . No quick fading Nina either, dry hot spring.

[Ntxw]

On a serious side note. We are at risk if February does not come through for DJF to all average 50F per month or warmer which has not happened since 1999-2000. PDO is still strongly negative. Prognosis of a wet spring is going to be lower than normal compared to typical -ENSO -> neutral transition.

[bubba hotep]

12z ICON and 12z GFS both came in warmer. Also, both are shifting the rain eastward. Things certainly seem to be trending towards a glancing blow of seasonally cold air that moderates rather quickly.

Winter cancel . No quick fading Nina either, dry hot spring.

Not saying that; just reporting what happened at 12z with those two models.

[rwfromkansas]

I will break out the unused liquor once La Nina is gone. Lol.

Fascinating how things keep changing.

[Ntxw]

12z ICON and 12z GFS both came in warmer. Also, both are shifting the rain eastward. Things certainly seem to be trending towards a glancing blow of seasonally cold air that moderates rather quickly.

Winter cancel . No quick fading Nina either, dry hot spring.

Not saying that; just reporting what happened at 12z with those two models.

18z Tuesday can be a good benchmark to see which model performed. We'll have to see if conventional wisdom beats the models in retrospect.

GFS upper 30s
CMC upper 20s
Icon mid 30s

[orangeblood]

Winter cancel . No quick fading Nina either, dry hot spring.

Not saying that; just reporting what happened at 12z with those two models.

18z Tuesday can be a good benchmark to see which model performed. We'll have to see if conventional wisdom beats the models in retrospect.

GFS upper 30s
CMC upper 20s
Icon mid 30s

GEFS Mean 32-34F

[Iceresistance]

Not saying that; just reporting what happened at 12z with those two models.

18z Tuesday can be a good benchmark to see which model performed. We'll have to see if conventional wisdom beats the models in retrospect.

GFS upper 30s
CMC upper 20s
Icon mid 30s

GEFS Mean 32-34F
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1674820800/1675188000-IOIzZ7Qho78.png

What is the NBM showing? It's been showing an Ice and Snow signal being a very conservative model for a while now.

[orangeblood]

18z Tuesday can be a good benchmark to see which model performed. We'll have to see if conventional wisdom beats the models in retrospect.

GFS upper 30s
CMC upper 20s
Icon mid 30s

GEFS Mean 32-34F
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/t2m_f/1674820800/1675188000-IOIzZ7Qho78.png

What is the NBM showing? It's been showing an Ice and Snow signal being a very conservative model for a while now.

[CaptinCrunch]

On a serious side note. We are at risk if February does not come through for DJF to all average 50F per month or warmer which has not happened since 1999-2000. PDO is still strongly negative. Prognosis of a wet spring is going to be lower than normal compared to typical -ENSO -> neutral transition.

I'm sure everyone has read the ENSO reports on a regular basis, This La Nina is taking her sweet time fading off, but the facts are it is fading. Only 2 of the 4 Nino regions are showing Nina reading, and that is barely @ -0.06. I think the progression to ENSO netural will continue all though slower than expected.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro puts down some freezing rain on the northern and northwest portions of the precipitation shield but warms most everyone above freezing during the main push. That is a pretty common thread in the models, warming most areas up overnight on Tuesday with the main push of moisture. Also, lock these rainfall totals in!