Texas Winter 2022-2023

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harp
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6101 Postby harp » Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:50 pm

Ok, folks..what’s next?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6102 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:53 pm

harp wrote:Ok, folks..what’s next?


Ensembles attempt at some source region cold building (WCAN) after mid month (post 20th again :lol: ). Given the recent cycling that might be when we have enough cold air to move south if the Pacific cooperates.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6103 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:14 pm

Pretty substantial EWB going on near the dateline. This has delayed the Nina decay and continued the stout -PDO. I would probably bet one more -PDO/Shallow cold dispersion before winter is over Nina style. SOI has come down some but the dailies still are running too high.

Image

We likely won't see any true El Nino until late this year given the amount of time it takes to build one, should one come.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6104 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:37 pm

I am a little perplexed watching the soil temperatures in my area the past few days as they started climbing, even as ice was on the ground and presumably absorbing heat from the ground. Just a curious observation, as I’m trying to educate myself on soil temperatures in relation to frozen precip in Texas.

These readings (approximations?) appear to be from early mornings as today’s was out before 8 something when I looked at it.

https://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-temperature



Edit: I am also curious to watch that 5 year average over the next couple weeks to see what Feb ‘21 did to it. Unfortunately you can’t set a custom date range just to look at ‘21 to see what the actuals were.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6105 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Feb 03, 2023 4:47 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6106 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Feb 03, 2023 4:58 pm

I don't say this much, but it sure is nice to see the sun again. The mid 50s feel great here in Houston this afternoon!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6107 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:09 pm

Nothing much to say today other than we're in the thaw period again. February 20th is the date to mark as the "Return to winter" on your calendars! :lol:
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6108 Postby Gotwood » Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:12 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Yeah it’s insane down here. I could not believe the amount of ice there had to be spots with over one inch of accumulation on trees.
Nothing apocalyptic perhaps for you North Texas folks. Down here in Austin, I would say it has been apocalyptic when one considers the widespread devastation of trees and hundreds of thousands still without power.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6109 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:19 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Yeah for sure highly underestimated, maybe not apocalyptic but the amount of downplaying throughout this event through some has been eye rolling at times.. Duration has been there, persistence is what it was. Several fatalities this morning.

https://twitter.com/DFWscanner/status/1621562049544261634

Nothing apocalyptic perhaps for you North Texas folks. Down here in Austin, I would say it has been apocalyptic when one considers the widespread devastation of trees and hundreds of thousands still without power.

Yeah it’s insane down here. I could not believe the amount of ice there had to be spots with over one inch of accumulation on trees.

And in Arkansas too, they got clobbered really hard as well, there are still over 200K without power. At least conditions are improving in terms of weather so the restoration can be done faster.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6110 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:16 pm

Started the cleanup process today. Roof fine. But large limbs took out some parts of the fence, but nothing needed but some pickets and nails. Lost power for just a few hours yesterday. Not as bad as a lot of others around here. My chain saw is broken and dull, and my large lopper shears are dull. So didn't make much headway.

How do you post pics here? Hard to explain the damage without seeing it. All over the place. :roll:
Exhausting. :break:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6111 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 03, 2023 7:54 pm

Man, this Southeast Ridge is something else…wouldn’t be surprised to see another ice storm threat 2nd half of Feb/early March as the PV cycles back to North America. Regardless of cold, resistance of Ridge should create above normal precip chances

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6112 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:21 pm

This is not Texas-related, but the record for the lowest wind chill in the United States just fell, listen to the wind! :eek: :froze:

 https://twitter.com/ChrisBouzakis/status/1621654518562787331


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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6113 Postby Itryatgolf » Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:44 pm

orangeblood wrote:Man, this Southeast Ridge is something else…wouldn’t be surprised to see another ice storm threat 2nd half of Feb/early March as the PV cycles back to North America. Regardless of cold, resistance of Ridge should create above normal precip chances

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

I hope we have one more opportunity at a winter event because my area missed out for the most part. Glad no big ice storm, but wanted to see a little more :grr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6114 Postby Itryatgolf » Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:46 pm

orangeblood wrote:Man, this Southeast Ridge is something else…wouldn’t be surprised to see another ice storm threat 2nd half of Feb/early March as the PV cycles back to North America. Regardless of cold, resistance of Ridge should create above normal precip chances

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif

The issue I'm having is if we get a SSW event, it will be too late for the most part to have a big effect. I could be wrong though :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6115 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:17 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Nothing much to say today other than we're in the thaw period again. February 20th is the date to mark as the "Return to winter" on your calendars! :lol:


I'm hearing some chatter here about late next week here. We shall see. Sounds like temps would be borderline but yeah
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6116 Postby Snowman67 » Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:20 am

[quote="orangeblood"]Non-Texas related weather news...check out the apparent temps for the Northeast tonight

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/apparent_temperature_f/1675425600/1675486800-8ux4dG8KOO4.png

477 DM touching Maine :double:

Mount Washington New Hampshire Observatory set the all time US wind chill record today. -108F. Temp was -45F with winds over 100mph.

https://www.khou.com/amp/article/news/n ... 0193c36b38
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6117 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Feb 04, 2023 3:01 am

Snowman67 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Non-Texas related weather news...check out the apparent temps for the Northeast tonight

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/ne/apparent_temperature_f/1675425600/1675486800-8ux4dG8KOO4.png

477 DM touching Maine :double:

Mount Washington New Hampshire Observatory set the all time US wind chill record today. -108F. Temp was -45F with winds over 100mph.

https://www.khou.com/amp/article/news/n ... 0193c36b38


I would absolutely love to experience that. Even if it was just for a few seconds.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6118 Postby Ralph's Weather » Sat Feb 04, 2023 7:07 am

Iceresistance wrote:This is not Texas-related, but the record for the lowest wind chill in the United States just fell, listen to the wind! :eek: :froze:

https://twitter.com/ChrisBouzakis/status/1621654518562787331

My coworker is skiing in NH this weekend. Wonder of he regrets that choice now haha.

Our daily record low of -32F (set in 1963) has already officially been broken as of 1 pm EST and is expected to plunge even lower overnight. You can track how the low ambient air temperatures will go on our Current Summit Conditions page: https://www.mountwashington.org/experie ... tions.aspx
Or view the weather live at: https://www.mountwashington.org/weather ... ckcam.aspx
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6119 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:09 am

The GFS can't seem to get out of its own way here lately. After leading the way with a big rain event next week, it started trending more progressive and shifting the higher rainfall totals eastward. It has started to shift back westward a bit but is still well east of the WPC forecast.

Image

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#6120 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:26 am

12z CMC is closer to the 12k NAM than the GFS. Even the American models don't agree with the GFS right now lol

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Then the result of the CMC kicking the system out slower and deeper across Texas next week.

Image
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