Wild Scenario painted by the EURO in the MR ...

[Guest]

SF,

You are right! However, the GFS had absolutly NO support last week when it was showing the "cutoff" low in the east for this week. No, support is plentifull. BTW , Tonight's run of the EURO may be doing the same thing it was doing several runs ago when it showed this week's east coast "cutoff" hanging way back in the SW. My concern is that it's up to it's usual tricks in showing the cutoff low for next weekend across the SW. We'll see!

Are you talking about the ECMWF's tendency to hang SW energy back bias? .. Hmm, interesting, considering the overall progressive nature of the pattern right now, you definitely may have a point there.

Obviously the bigger concern in the immediate short term is the Southlands Severe Wx Setup and it looks to be a doozy tomorrow and Tuesday ...

Yea the severe threat does look to be a doozy tomorrow and Tuesday.....................Either way the NAO is headed for the tank (So to say) and the PNA headed the other way which should keep things intresting in the next couple of weeks or so!!!!

[Stormsfury]

That's exactly what I am talking about! The EURO has always had the problem with SW lows! It bit a lot of people in the backside last week and my concern is it's doing it again! I have a hard time believing it that this SW low will cutoff like that. For goodness sakes, it stil has it trough day 10! NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!

The severe threat for the next 3 days looks to be very, very high! Helicities are forecast to go above 500 for parts of the OV and Tn V! That is very impressive for this time of year or any other time of year for that matter. It is looking like an impressive squall line environment will be present late Monday into Tuesday. Damaging straight line winds are likely! But out ahead of this line is the concern. Possible supercell development could lead to some tornadic activity. I think this is a major outbreak from the eastern plains to the MA over the next 3 days.

GSP issued quite a startling discussion about this earlier (check out the Moderate Risk for Severe). Conditions are definitely looking prime for severe in the next couple of days including the Midwest ...

[Upslope]

I'm watching the 0z data rolling in and it looks scary for the outlined area. I would not rule out some violent tornadoes from Texas to southern Illinois Monday afternoon. Then the tornado threat may shift more towards the OV overnight Monday into Tuesday near the triple point. Warm fronts in these enviromnets are just asking for trouble!!!! I am also becoming more and more concerned about flooding for my area (Ky)! We had a lot of problems last week when some areas picked up nearly 5 inches of rainfall in less than 12 hours.