Texas Winter 2024-2025

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Texas Snowman
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Texas Winter 2024-2025

#1 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Sep 03, 2024 8:42 pm

Now that it is meteorological fall, winter has next game!
:D :froze:
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#2 Postby davidiowx » Tue Sep 03, 2024 8:55 pm

Is it gonna snow since a Hurricane made landfall? :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3 Postby TropicalTundra » Wed Sep 04, 2024 12:07 pm

YAY!!

:yow: :1:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#4 Postby Stratton23 » Tue Sep 17, 2024 2:58 pm

Im hearing talk that the PV maybe a lot weaker this winter compared to last winter when it was mostly strong and kept most of the big arctic air locked up, if its mostly weaker like what im hearing, that could throw a big wrench into winter forecasts
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#5 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Sep 27, 2024 3:13 pm

Howdy everybody! I’m just setting up my new iPad today and the links didn’t copy so was adding this page as a favorite again and what a great surprise to see that I logged in for page one of what we all hope will be an amazing winter. Can’t wait! Looking forward to good times with all of you again. Now if we can just get summer out of fall first…
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#6 Postby Sambucol2024 » Sat Oct 12, 2024 10:36 am

Stratton23 wrote:Im hearing talk that the PV maybe a lot weaker this winter compared to last winter when it was mostly strong and kept most of the big arctic air locked up, if its mostly weaker like what im hearing, that could throw a big wrench into winter forecasts

Meaning we will have more cold air down here rather than last year possibly?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#7 Postby Wthrfan » Fri Oct 18, 2024 4:28 pm

Still nice and toasty but the chill will come soon! Time to start following this fun little thread for a few months!
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 18, 2024 5:17 pm

I'm just gonna keep telling myself that it can't be any worse than the last two winters... Until it isn't again :spam: :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#9 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Oct 21, 2024 3:59 pm

I don't like the cooler temperatures near Alaska, might be not good for the first half of this winter

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https://s1.gifyu.com/images/SO33X.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#10 Postby Stratton23 » Mon Oct 21, 2024 10:05 pm

Iceresistance id rather have a back loaded winter, last year was front loaded, and then january-march was just miserable
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#11 Postby Golfisnteasy7575 » Tue Oct 22, 2024 2:19 pm

If we get a neutral enso instead of niña, it would seem like we could get more frequent cold shots here, but Niña is usually more intense. I know we need to rain, but thinking way ahead. We don't average much snow and ice anyways, but one storm can change that. Definitely the right trough ridge alignment is important. What webber said yesterday makes alot of sense, despite it being neutral, niño, or niña.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#12 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:41 am

The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#13 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:56 am

Ntxw wrote:The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.



And Larry Cosgrove echoed almost everything Ntwx stated..( they are both in agreement)..

Blocking Signatures At High Latitudes Do Not Always Translate To Arctic Intrusions....
But a -NAO signature showing up across Greenland and the Davis Strait may shake the pattern up enough to allow for buckling of the jet stream. If a ridge at high latitudes occurs by itself, there may or may not be a corresponding cAk regime build-up that would have a mechanism to move southward. All that shows currently is a tendency for strong storms digging into the West. What follows is a cool or cold western North America against a warm central/eastern continental set-up. In order for a more likely colder scenario to the right of the Rocky Mountains, other positions such as -EPO, +PNA and -AO ridge positions must occur. It is possible that the emerging block heading into far northeastern Canada may at some point retrogress into a positive height anomaly allied with the negative Arctic Oscillation. That realignment might just do the trick allowing for colder plumes to reach the lower 48 states. But such a development and result is not yet evident on the numerical model guidance (although the analog method favors an eventual Alaska/Yukon to Baffin Island ridge complex.
There are still some tropical implications we should keep looking at. Hurricane Rafael will likely break up over the southern Gulf of Mexico, with its moisture pulled into a storm and frontal structure moving through the south central states. The main complication: very heavy rainfall and severe weather threats in parts of East Texas and Louisiana early next week. It is entirely possible that a typhoon could arise from the convective field associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Phases 7, 8 over the equatorial Pacific Basin. Unlike the current Typhoon Yinxing over the South China Sea (headed for Vietnam), Invest 93W might head north and link/merge with the polar westerlies and vortex near the Aleutian Islands. Should that or some other disturbance transition into a "typhoon injection syndrome" case, then a major cold shot from northern Canada into lower latitudes of the U.S. will happen.
But do not count on that happening anytime soon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#14 Postby wxman22 » Sat Nov 09, 2024 7:51 am

Ntxw wrote:The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.


Wouldn't surprise me if we saw an ice storm this winter if the SE ridge sticks around and we end up in the "battlezone" between the ridge and western trough.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#15 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 09, 2024 3:12 pm

Ntxw wrote:The story of this winter will likely be how much poleward will the central/eastern North Pacific -PDO/Nina ridge go. There's going to be warmth and a strong SE/Eastern ridge. Our likely best bet is for Western-Central Canada to get really cold and spill into the Rockies and benefit us at times. All about that ridge placement in the Pacific and -PNA/-PDO tendencies.

Colorado got absolutely walloped with the first winter storm, Denver may have got 20 inches of snow already
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#16 Postby Wthrfan » Sat Nov 09, 2024 3:46 pm

Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#17 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Nov 09, 2024 4:45 pm

Wthrfan wrote:Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.

Remember the past few La Nina Winters have been anything but boring, it all depends on the EPO
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#18 Postby Sambucol » Sun Nov 10, 2024 9:38 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Wthrfan wrote:Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.

Remember the past few La Nina Winters have been anything but boring, it all depends on the EPO


Was winter 2021 a la nina winter because we had the Winter Apocalypse in Texas in February 2021 that took down our grid. Statewide event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#19 Postby TomballEd » Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:17 am

Sambucol wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Wthrfan wrote:Winter has been a dud the last two years. This winter may be the worst (for us snow/cold lovers) in the last several.

Remember the past few La Nina Winters have been anything but boring, it all depends on the EPO


Was winter 2021 a la nina winter because we had the Winter Apocalypse in Texas in February 2021 that took down our grid. Statewide event.

Winter 2020-21 was a cool ENSO 'La Nina' winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 11, 2024 12:14 pm

Good lord 12z GFS, 576 dm ridge in Canada!? Then a blocking pattern over all of Canada??
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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