Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

On this very night in 2013, from Fort Worth NWS as Icemageddon was about to wallop North Texas:

———————

"THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WERE TO INCREASE ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-20. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION. EVEN DESPITE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RAIN DROPS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THEY REACH THE GROUND...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LIKELY IN 20S ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WE ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT DENTON...COLLIN...COOKE...GRAYSON...AND FANNIN
COUNTIES WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING OF TREES IN THIS AREA WOULD LEAD TO LIMB BREAKAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS IN SOME COMMUNITIES. FURTHERMORE NOT ALL TREES HAVE LOST THEIR LEAVES YET WHICH WILL ADD TO TREE LIMB STRESS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF MORE ICE."

Remember this well considering I had to drive in that mess for hours. An early season winter blast I don't think we've seen since. Cobblestone got worse and worse as the temps dropped throughout the day. Interesting the report mentions no leaves on trees. Driving around today I haven't seen a tree that has dropped all its leaves yet!! Some are still green. Add the fact that I need to mow the yard again. Unreal. I'm waiting for "normal dormancy " and it's not happening. I've never seen my yard as green as it is this late in to December.

[DallasAg]

On this very night in 2013, from Fort Worth NWS as Icemageddon was about to wallop North Texas:

———————

"THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WERE TO INCREASE ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-20. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION. EVEN DESPITE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RAIN DROPS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THEY REACH THE GROUND...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND LIKELY IN 20S ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WE ARE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT DENTON...COLLIN...COOKE...GRAYSON...AND FANNIN
COUNTIES WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT ICING OF TREES IN THIS AREA WOULD LEAD TO LIMB BREAKAGE AND POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS IN SOME COMMUNITIES. FURTHERMORE NOT ALL TREES HAVE LOST THEIR LEAVES YET WHICH WILL ADD TO TREE LIMB STRESS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF MORE ICE."

Remember this well considering I had to drive in that mess for hours. An early season winter blast I don't think we've seen since. Cobblestone got worse and worse as the temps dropped throughout the day. Interesting the report mentions no leaves on trees. Driving around today I haven't seen a tree that has dropped all its leaves yet!! Some are still green. Add the fact that I need to mow the yard again. Unreal. I'm waiting for "normal dormancy " and it's not happening. I've never seen my yard as green as it is this late in to December.

Yeah early December 2013 was strange - we'd had a relatively cool/cold period leading up to the ice storm, and I've got a picture of two large limbs from the oak tree that snapped from the weight of the ice, and all of the leaves were still green...not even a hint of orange or brown. I guess the foliage change was on the late side that year.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.fox4news.com/news/texas-win ... -grid-2024

Bullet points:

ERCOT's chief meteorologist says this winter is shaping up to look mild but might have a period of extreme cold.

Chris Coleman says the weather patterns look similar to the 2021 winter storm.

ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas says they've added more energy production since January and the grid is more prepared to handle heavy usage.

[Ntxw]

The models have trended positive tilt trough and largely dry.

[Stratton23]

Of course they have, i bet thats going to be a common theme this winter

[Iceresistance]

The models have trended positive tilt trough and largely dry.

I blame the PNA

[Brent]

The models have trended positive tilt trough and largely dry.

Where's my shocked face

Might as well get used to it

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 313 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024/
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

After a brief break, clouds and rain chances will make a quick
return to the region starting Friday night as an upper low spreads
out of the Desert Southwest and into West Texas. Strong low level
warm advection should result in a blossoming of showers and a few
thunderstorms well to the southwest during the day Friday and this
activity should increase in coverage as is moves northeast Friday
night. A secondary shortwave will dig into the back side of this
upper low early Saturday with low and mid level wind fields
strengthening as strong height falls spread into West Texas. This
should enhance the low level isentropic ascent and allow showers
and a few thunderstorms to become widespread during the day
Saturday across Central and North Texas. Activity will continue
into Saturday night with a secondary increase in coverage expected
late overnight into early Sunday morning, mainly east of I-35.
Precipitation chances should end from west to east during the day
Sunday as the main upper trough moves east. Widespread rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with heavier amounts
across our far eastern and southeastern counties.

Moisture will only be partially scoured out behind this system and
another potent shortwave will approach on Tuesday. A strong cold
front associated with this system will spill southward through the
Plains late Monday night and move through North Texas on Tuesday
ahead of the strongest forcing for ascent. While temperatures will
be above freezing, we`ll monitor the potential for additional
rainfall late Tuesday evening into the nighttime hours mainly
across our eastern counties. While this will be a fast moving
system, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing areawide
both Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

[Stratton23]

Their is some talk about a potential Major SSWE taking shape middle december, taking a look at alot of the guidance, and they definitely suggest it could happen, granted these things are extremely unpredictable and very hard to forecast, but it has been showing up, and some very credible people ( Judah Cohen- expert on SSWE’s and the PV) are saying it could happen, long ways to go though

[HockeyTx82]

Their is some talk about a potential Major SSWE taking shape middle december, taking a look at alot of the guidance, and they definitely suggest it could happen, granted these things are extremely unpredictable and very hard to forecast, but it has been showing up, and some very credible people ( Judah Cohen- expert on SSWE’s and the PV) are saying it could happen, long ways to go though

Based on previous conversations I already filled up my pool, packed up my winter gear and clothes into storage and have my summer clothes in my dresser now.

Did I misread you all?

[Brent]

Their is some talk about a potential Major SSWE taking shape middle december, taking a look at alot of the guidance, and they definitely suggest it could happen, granted these things are extremely unpredictable and very hard to forecast, but it has been showing up, and some very credible people ( Judah Cohen- expert on SSWE’s and the PV) are saying it could happen, long ways to go though

Based on previous conversations I already filled up my pool, packed up my winter gear and clothes into storage and have my summer clothes in my dresser now.

Did I misread you all?

Lol

Hope it goes better than last year when it never helped us no I haven't forgotten

[Cpv17]

Their is some talk about a potential Major SSWE taking shape middle december, taking a look at alot of the guidance, and they definitely suggest it could happen, granted these things are extremely unpredictable and very hard to forecast, but it has been showing up, and some very credible people ( Judah Cohen- expert on SSWE’s and the PV) are saying it could happen, long ways to go though

Based on previous conversations I already filled up my pool, packed up my winter gear and clothes into storage and have my summer clothes in my dresser now.

Did I misread you all?

Lol

Hope it goes better than last year when it never helped us no I haven't forgotten

We’ll have to watch late December into January. There’s some indications that the EPO could go into major tank mode with CPF setting up.

[Cpv17]

With that being said, everything seems to look good in the long range so I wouldn’t get my hopes up, but I do think it has some meat on the bone so we’ll see.

[Iceresistance]

PV looks strong, but if you look closely at the green model lines, we could have an SSW event in Mid-December


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SJ3MH.png

[Stratton23]

Iceresistance will be interesting to see if that happens, the GFS, Euro and GEFS ensembles remain consistent on this occuring sometime mid month

[TropicalTundra]

Again the models completely downplay an event and “dry slot” us only for it to turn out completely different precip wise.

Also there’s some slight icing NE of Abilene and near I-20, probably wasn’t called for but precip should be light anyway

[Ntxw]

DFW got an official first freeze this morning. Between hour readings actually dipped as low as 30 but not sure if that will stand, regardless very chilly and beat the low expectations for the day!

[mmmmsnouts]

DFW got an official first freeze this morning. Between hour readings actually dipped as low as 30 but not sure if that will stand, regardless very chilly and beat the low expectations for the day!

At least it was only about a week behind everyone else this year. Last year the lag between the first unofficial and official freezes was over a month.

[Iceresistance]

DFW got an official first freeze this morning. Between hour readings actually dipped as low as 30 but not sure if that will stand, regardless very chilly and beat the low expectations for the day!

I fell to 22 this morning

[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 30.0 IMBY, so second freeze for me in Tarrant.

Not shocked to see things trend badly for us, but that happens. We typically have a few false starts before a true pattern change. Now, if it were February, I would be worried, but it's December.

At least it has a chill in the air.

My fire dragon Shantung Maple turned red almost overnight. It's one of the few trees that reliably turns red every year around here. It turned about a week later than last year.