Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

21 degrees this morning. I will say we made up for lost time on the lack of freezes here

Hopefully same happens with the winter fun eventually

[Stratton23]

There are at least some small hints of arctic air reloading in Canada and getting funneled into this US around the 20th, but its just a small hint right now

[Brent]

Lol our met is talking about all time highs which would be near 80 and yet the EPS barely has a high above 60 through the 20th

What am I missing

[Stratton23]

Starting to see signs that alaskan ridging may be coming back around the 20th

[Iceresistance]

PNA is trending more positive and for longer, it's a no wonder why we can't have snow!

[Stratton23]

Of course it is, not even surprising

[Stratton23]

Looking ahead, the dreaded aleutian trough pattern returns, or as i like to call it, the Big Suck Pattern

[Iceresistance]

Looking ahead, the dreaded aleutian trough pattern returns, or as i like to call it, the Big Suck Pattern

Well, the +EPO may become ++EPO, the trough pattern over Alaska is insane per 12z GEFS


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJIdV.gif

[Ntxw]

Looking ahead, the dreaded aleutian trough pattern returns, or as i like to call it, the Big Suck Pattern

Well, the +EPO may become ++EPO, the trough pattern over Alaska is insane per 12z GEFS

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJIdV.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJIdV.gif

Crazy thing is, that's not La Nina at all, much more like strong El Nino component at least in the northeast Pacific.



It would be horrible stroke of luck to get the ENSO pattern that is bad for December, while when we had the El Nino, got the bad La Nina like pattern the other months last year. Thus these changing SST warming in the subtropics and extra tropics continue to fundamentally change our perception of how ENSO influences the weather pattern.

[Iceresistance]

Looking ahead, the dreaded aleutian trough pattern returns, or as i like to call it, the Big Suck Pattern

Well, the +EPO may become ++EPO, the trough pattern over Alaska is insane per 12z GEFS

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJIdV.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJIdV.gif

Crazy thing is, that's not La Nina at all, much more like strong El Nino component at least in the northeast Pacific.

https://i.imgur.com/pFJbauw.gif

It would be horrible stroke of luck to get the ENSO pattern that is bad for December, while when we had the El Nino, got the bad La Nina the other months last year.

Beyond destructive interference, as if the pattern wants to make sure that we never get snow this winter at this rate!

[Iceresistance]

November 2024 PDO came in at -3.24

[Ntxw]

Well, the +EPO may become ++EPO, the trough pattern over Alaska is insane per 12z GEFS

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJIdV.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SJIdV.gif

Crazy thing is, that's not La Nina at all, much more like strong El Nino component at least in the northeast Pacific.

https://i.imgur.com/pFJbauw.gif

It would be horrible stroke of luck to get the ENSO pattern that is bad for December, while when we had the El Nino, got the bad La Nina the other months last year.

Beyond destructive interference, as if the pattern wants to make sure that we never get snow this winter at this rate!

The month has been below normal mostly the first 7 days though so that's 1 week below normal. -2.6F at DFW. We'll have to see, sometimes the broader 500mb doesn't always reflect the shorter scales.

[Stratton23]

Based on that, might as well just reopen the pools for christmas , would be shocked if we see 80 degrees again

[Brent]

Warmest Christmas here is 73

Let's see if we can break it woohoo go us!

[869MB]

If Ben is correct about this potential pattern change in January, it may not necessarily lead to colder temperatures or snow for the Southern Plains but hopefully it will lead to a brief but slightly wetter weather pattern especially for West TX, SC TX & SE TX where ongoing drought conditions persist from the late summer months…

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1865030181146010002





Meanwhile, looking ahead, hopefully this latest ECMWF Seasonal Forecast is accurate because the chances of La Niña emerging (or persisting if it ever gets officially declared which is slowly becoming more and more unlikely) doing the late Summer 2025 through early Winter would be very low. So without a fully coupled moderate or strong La Niña in the atmosphere during this time frame, I’m becoming cautiously more optimistic about rainfall prospects for SC TX & SE TX…something similar to the relief we experienced from the drier anomalies during the first half of 2024 thanks to the 2023 El Niño. In addition, this may make for a much more interesting and exciting winter next year for all of the snow weather lovers, especially in the NTX & OK, assuming we can get all of the teleconnections to align accordingly. Regardless, that’s a long ways out with a lot of speculation and we have plenty of time to see how the ENSO plays out in 2025…

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1865402383448113384

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt get your hopes up, long range modeling has already burned us so many times this year

[Brent]

I'm going to Colorado tomorrow and all they can manage is an inch or two probably in the mountains on Monday at best. I mean any snow is a win but dry air is killing them more than anything. It's gonna be pretty cold at least for a couple days.

So yeah even a wet pattern would be an improvement

[Stratton23]

Yeah everything i see points to a very dry and warm rest of a december here, just absolutely miserable , hopefully we have a backloaded winter, because the last few winters here have been extremely underwhelming

[cajungal]

https://youtu.be/NnUbmSEwgvU?si=sQIQ5qyY5n7MFFNm

Not my video but a throwback. We got to 9 degrees in Thibodaux. But could have did without the busted pipes through the attic. Was 13 and was excited about the snow though. Bayou Lafourche froze over

[HockeyTx82]

Well, at least we always have commercial with the overly attractive young couple where the guy gives his girl a puppy and she buys him a GMC Truck.

That looks like an amazing amount of snow. We can only dream.