Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Yeah we cut into the 'warmth' early. Cooler before the storm.

[Ntxw]

ULL is cutoff from the flow, I-20 on north is not much above 40 before it crosses.

[Gotwood]

21 IMBY this morning.

[Cpv17]

I still don’t care for the look of the ensembles. It won’t be a torch, but I definitely don’t see any really cold air headed down this way either.

[snowballzzz]

OKC meteorologist, Mike Morgan, is buying into a cold snap next week. Has highs in the 30s with snow chances next Wednesday-Saturday.

[WaveBreaking]

The GFS model run from the Climate Prediction Center’s website shows the core of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex briefly shift towards North America while a warming event starts over the North Pacific. It also stretches a bit which would help bring cold air south (I’m not from Texas btw, but this is the only active winter thread here, and it also pertains to Texas’s winter)

[Sambucol2024]

CMC has lost its marbles, highs below freezing for the entire state, lows in the 20’s for se texas and even single digits for north texas, lol and the GFS is much warmer haha

What is the timeframe for this possibility?

[Brent]

CMC has lost its marbles, highs below freezing for the entire state, lows in the 20’s for se texas and even single digits for north texas, lol and the GFS is much warmer haha

What is the timeframe for this possibility?

Starting next Wednesday. Still very iffy though

I'm not buying extreme cold yet but I am definitely not seeing a lot of warmth either

If you believe the eps the "cold" would peak before Christmas and then some moderation but we're into la la land by then

[Ntxw]

I'm partially with CPV the overall continental raised heights doesn't scream very cold, but at the same time we are under the influence of pinched off troughs, or cold pockets aloft. That's not going to allow it to get very warm either, in fact be in the right place and these things can generate winter weather at that...It's going to be the interior west that will likely get anomalous warmth.

[rwfromkansas]

Was surprised I didn't get down to freezing since it was 36 at 10 last night with low dp and wind. But, I guess. Lol. That was the forecast, I just didn't understand why. Maybe cloudy?

[Ntxw]

Was surprised I didn't get down to freezing since it was 36 at 10 last night with low dp and wind. But, I guess. Lol. That was the forecast, I just didn't understand why. Maybe cloudy?

Likely mixing with the wind, not optimal for radiational cooling.

[Edwards Limestone]

I still don’t care for the look of the ensembles. It won’t be a torch, but I definitely don’t see any really cold air headed down this way either.

Same here. We still have yet to have our first freeze of the year at my location- though we got down to 34 this morning.

[Stratton23]

Ill take any cold we can get, hope that SSWE occurs, id love some of that real cold stuff to come down here in january!

[DallasAg]

Was surprised I didn't get down to freezing since it was 36 at 10 last night with low dp and wind. But, I guess. Lol. That was the forecast, I just didn't understand why. Maybe cloudy?

Likely mixing with the wind, not optimal for radiational cooling.

Same here - was 33.1 just after midnight and just seemed to stick there or bounce around either side of 33.5. Westerly component to the wind, so maybe a little downsloping keeping it from bottoming out.

West and southwest down near Brownwood and Eastland looks like they really tanked this morning.

[WaveBreaking]

The GFS model run from the Climate Prediction Center’s website shows the core of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex briefly shift towards North America while a warming event starts over the North Pacific. It also stretches a bit which would help bring cold air south (I’m not from Texas btw, but this is the only active winter thread here, and it also pertains to Texas’s winter)

https://i.imgur.com/Zp5oujp.gif

This warming wave shows up on pretty much all other height levels of the polar vortex. From 100mb all the way up to 1mb, where it shows up as a cool wave.

[Stratton23]

WaveBreaking interesting graphics, but i know their have been times where models have predicted a SSWE and it doesnt happen, would you say their is a bit more confidence this time around that this may actually occur?

[WaveBreaking]

WaveBreaking interesting graphics, but i know their have been times where models have predicted a SSWE and it doesnt happen, would you say their is a bit more confidence this time around that this may actually occur?

IMO this would be a minor warming event at best, and the signal shows up pretty strongly on GEFS ensembles. This would most likely only stretch the PV which would still give the US some cold air. Also since this warming event is forecast to happen relatively soon, I would say that my confidence in this verifying is higher than usual.

[Ntxw]

Think it's the Aleutian low pattern that disrupts the bottom portion of the PV. Best we can look for is continued disruption at the lower part of the atmosphere and perhaps in January with a weakened PV will be enough for a major SSWE from the top down. This is the benefit of the persistent Aleutian lows.

You can view it as a giant perfect cone of wind top to bottom all spinning in tandem. Any part can be disrupted but most likely at the tropospheric level where wave breaks (ridge and troughs) can disturb this perfect harmony out of shape due to heat influx etc. After it is out of shape at the base then the top is weakened and may follow suit.

[Brent]

Our TV mets not sounding very impressed but then again they are usually wrong

[Stratton23]

GFS caved to the Euro AIFS somewhat , starting to see that alaskan ridge popping in the 10-12 day period with strong TPV swinging down into the great lakes, AIFS has been consistently showing a colder outlook for the central and eastern US, GFS not their quite yet but trending in the right direction