Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Hopefully AccuWeather is wrong because it has virtually no cold air til almost February

Seems very hard to believe but I dunno. Even in the bad years it didn't really snow we still had some really cold days

[Stratton23]

I have a better chance of winning the powerball lottery than Accuweather has at being right on that idea lol, but seriously i don’t understand why they put out forecasted temperatures out 2 months in time for January and February, their simply is just no way to forecast that far out and time, sure you can watch how the teleconnections trend over a couple of weeks, but heck the weather and models change on a day to day basis. I just think it’s incredibly pointless for them to put out forecasts 60 days out

[wxman57]

If y'all remember, most years before an arctic blast I will post a Troy Dungan weather report from January 1985. You'll see just how cold it was and the huge difference in the way weather was forecasted and presented. If I post it again this season something good is about to happen.

I grew up in Dallas and watched Troy and Harold Taft every night. The reporting and technology (or lack thereof) was markedly different. Harold would still would hand draw his weather maps!

My Dad knew Harold Taft from American Airlines back in the day of Love Field being the big airport.

In 1978, as a 3rd year met student at A&M, I met Harold Taft at KXAS before the news hour. A college friend's father worked at the station. We watched Harold hand draw his weather maps using colored chalk. No digital maps back then. His maps were a work of art. I wish I would have thought of asking for a map while I was there.

[wxman57]

Speaking of warm temperatures, I see the Euro has Houston highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees all Christmas week. Good biking weather! Too cold to go outside today (30 deg this morning). Brrrr!

[gpsnowman]

I grew up in Dallas and watched Troy and Harold Taft every night. The reporting and technology (or lack thereof) was markedly different. Harold would still would hand draw his weather maps!

My Dad knew Harold Taft from American Airlines back in the day of Love Field being the big airport.

In 1978, as a 3rd year met student at A&M, I met Harold Taft at KXAS before the news hour. A college friend's father worked at the station. We watched Harold hand draw his weather maps using colored chalk. No digital maps back then. His maps were a work of art. I wish I would have thought of asking for a map while I was there.

When we moved from San Antonio to Dallas in 1984, Harold's casual, matter of fact forecasting drew my attention even as a 10 year old. He was my favorite .He passed while I was in highschool but the memories of the 80s are fresh. It's weird but I can't remember what I had for breakfast this morning.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah... This isn't looking good

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bE4LC.png

[Stratton23]

That chart looks ugly, however its not all doom and gloom lol, i actually did have a conversion with larry cosgrove on messenger about the MJO being a factor a couple of days ago, needless to say it was an interesting conversation, and id definitely trust what he has to say given his experience, i think other forces are in play that could determine how the rest of winter plays out beyond just the MJO

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah... This isn't looking good
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bE4LC.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bE4LC.png

That’s depressing.

[Stratton23]

We got a long ways to go, and i seriously doubt we go the rest of this winter without something fun happening or getting cold , patience, things change, and already ensembles are showing a better signal for the AO to go negative around new years , winter isnt over despite the entirety of the weather community on X saying it is lol

[starsfan65]

We got a long ways to go, and i seriously doubt we go the rest of this winter without something fun happening or getting cold , patience, things change, and already ensembles are showing a better signal for the AO to go negative around new years , winter isnt over despite the entirety of the weather community on X saying it is lol

Winter hasn't started yet.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

We got a long ways to go, and i seriously doubt we go the rest of this winter without something fun happening or getting cold , patience, things change, and already ensembles are showing a better signal for the AO to go negative around new years , winter isnt over despite the entirety of the weather community on X saying it is lol

Stratton, pay attention to the ensembles. If and when they trend negative, that is typically more believable. Op runs will occasionally show it, but don't put alot of stock in them imo

[Stratton23]

Golfisnteasy75 I have been watching the ensembles, the GEFS/ EPS have both been trending down with the AO over the past couple of days, of course things could change, but right now im just straight up looking for how the teleconnections trend past new years, of course looking at any one operational model run 384 hours out is practically useless outside of entertainment purposes lol

[Stratton23]

That being said i do like to look at global models runs out to about day 10, I think their is some skill even out to day 10, but im noticing tonights modes have made some pretty small but important changes in regards to pacific blocking in the medium range, or a range that’s appropriate to talk about, i say this because sometimes the operational runs pick up on trends before ensembles do

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
501 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025


.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

As the midweek Central CONUS trough continues to make eastward
progress, its strong cold front will be pulled through the area
during the daytime on Thursday. Additional isolated rain shower
activity is possible across East Texas preceding it arrival, but
this will be a dry frontal passage for a majority of North and
Central Texas. The post-frontal CP airmass source region will have
been experiencing near or above normal temperatures during the
preceding several days, and so this front will not feature a
significant cooldown for us locally for the end of the workweek.
In fact, it will barely be able to knock temperatures down to near
normal, with Friday`s forecast highs still in the 60s. Much drier
air will be present following the front though, with dewpoints
falling into the teens and 20s. A quick return to southerly flow
by Saturday should send temperature soaring into the 70s and even
lower 80s, at least 15-20 degrees above normal. Warm and mostly
rain-free weather look to continue into at least the early
portion of next week.

[Brent]

We might be setting all time records for December around Christmas at this rate...

I've seen talk of 80 even up here and someone else mentioned mowing the grass. What a joke. We've only hit 80 3 times ever in December to speak to how rare this could be

[Golfisnoteasy75]

We might be setting all time records for December around Christmas at this rate...

I've seen talk of 80 even up here and someone else mentioned mowing the grass. What a joke. We've only hit 80 3 times ever in December to speak to how rare this could be

Santa is wearing shorts and short sleeve shirts this Christmas, unfortunately. Ive heard that an aluetian ridge can sometimes allow for a big SSW. We shall see

[rwfromkansas]

I can handle 70s. It’s comfortable. But I draw the line at 80. That’s too warm for Christmas. Yuck.

[HockeyTx82]

So no white Christmas for Texas this year?

[Stratton23]

I strongly believe things will start to change around new years, maybe not drastically just yet, but i really do believe we will see changes in pacific blocking, a - NAO signal in ensembles/ models is becoming undeniable now, if im wrong, im wrong, but im sticking with my belief that a pattern change is coming despite social media, or platforms like X saying its all over, i dont believe it at all.

[Gotwood]

All the record warmth means is get ready for the bottom to completely drop out after it. I feel like this happens a lot here. I just hope when it does we have some moisture to work with.