Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

I know it is an operational run, but holy sweet mother of jefferson davis that is an absolutely insane run from the 00z Euro, that 500 mb pattern is mona Lisa level beautiful! AIFS/ AIFS Euro both look extremely cold as well post 13th ish, we gotta get through this warm period first, but good lordy euro

[Harp.1]

I know it is an operational run, but holy sweet mother of jefferson davis that is an absolutely insane run from the 00z Euro, that 500 mb pattern is mona Lisa level beautiful! AIFS/ AIFS Euro both look extremely cold as well post 13th ish, we gotta get through this warm period first, but good lordy euro

Dry cold?

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 run doesnt go far enough to show. if any precipitation falls, not that it matters at this range lol, but i can tell you, rhays the kind of pattern in which you bring out the big animal skin coats lol, in other words, really cold stuff

[Harp.1]

Harp.1 run doesnt go far enough to show. if any precipitation falls, not that it matters at this range lol, but i can tell you, rhays the kind of pattern in which you bring out the big animal skin coats lol, in other words, really cold stuff

Ok. I'm just not seeing it. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong things.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 gotta look at the ensembles at this range, id just figured id mention the euro run for the heck of it, ensembles still look very good mid month, and they have been consistent on this idea for days now, we just dont know how cold and if the STJ will be a player or not

[Brent]

Well it rained a little here nice to see the moisture back for a minute

If nothing else maybe that will be a thing in the coming weeks

[Cpv17]

I know it is an operational run, but holy sweet mother of jefferson davis that is an absolutely insane run from the 00z Euro, that 500 mb pattern is mona Lisa level beautiful! AIFS/ AIFS Euro both look extremely cold as well post 13th ish, we gotta get through this warm period first, but good lordy euro

Lol the 0z Euro has a 1069MB high in NW Canada. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the Euro have that strong of a high before on any of its model runs. It’s usually conservative when it comes to strengths of HP’s.

[Brent]

AccuWeather has temps in free fall by the 15th. Much more impressive than yesterday. It's a lot closer to normal the second week before that

It stays cold through the end of the month too once it hits

I think it's only a matter of time. There's no way up here at least we don't get an interesting week or two

[wxman57]

So, now it's down to: "Don't trust the operational runs, find one or two ensemble members that indicate winter weather."? Grasping at straws now. Meanwhile, time for more 80s here in Houston. Finally, it's warm enough to go outside again after that last cold front. That 0Z EC run looks like another Ohio Valley and NE U.S. system. No sign of any significant pattern shift across the U.S. Oh, I wish winter was over, but late January and February will have some surprises, I'm sure.

Oh, and the EC run 24 hours ago had a major cold front moving south through Texas next weekend (10th-11th). Now it has only a weak surge of cold air moving through. Neither the GFS nor the EC long-range forecast can be trusted.

[snownado]

So, now it's down to: "Don't trust the operational runs, find one or two ensemble members that indicate winter weather."? Grasping at straws now. Meanwhile, time for more 80s here in Houston. Finally, it's warm enough to go outside again after that last cold front. That 0Z EC run looks like another Ohio Valley and NE U.S. system. No sign of any significant pattern shift across the U.S. Oh, I wish winter was over, but late January and February will have some surprises, I'm sure.

Oh, and the EC run 24 hours ago had a major cold front moving south through Texas next weekend (10th-11th). Now it has only a weak surge of cold air moving through. Neither the GFS nor the EC long-range forecast can be trusted.

Definitely with you on the bolded.

It seems Texas can never escape a winter without at least one extreme cold outbreak at some point in recent years, even if it's precip-free.