Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Interesting, some long-range agreement b/w the 18z GFS and the Euro AI.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_aifs/2026010518/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026010518/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

The 12z Euro had it also but a long ways to go

[Cpv17]

Still think we have a ways to go. Just got through looking at the ensembles and there’s still plenty of room for improvement.

[Stratton23]

Feels nice out here in H- Town, but not as nice as watching Kevin Durant hit the game winning shot vs the suns!

[Cpv17]

Feels nice out here in H- Town, but not as nice as watching Kevin Durant hit the game winning shot vs the suns!

Yes sir!!

[Stratton23]

AI GFS just went full on nuke, thats alot of barney colors in texas lol

new euro AIFS agrees, arctic air overwhelms the SE ridge and texas gets pretty chilly

[Brent]

Interesting it's been MLK weekend here the last couple years(the Gulf storm last year the high of 6 in 2024)

Maybe we can follow it again

[Sambucol2024]

AI GFS just went full on nuke, thats alot of barney colors in texas lol

new euro AIFS agrees, arctic air overwhelms the SE ridge and texas gets pretty chilly

When? Hoping!!!

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 around the 20th ish, far out, but things are definitely going in the right direction

[Brent]

Kind of disappointed at the EPS still has a huge ridge over us at that range on the mean though it does have a bigger spread of course being day 15

Long way to go

[orangeblood]

Arctic cold building into our core source region with cross-polar flow and STJ moisture being tapped, really good looking setup on the latest EURO ENS end of week 2. Should start seeing individual Ops runs get interesting

[HockeyTx82]

The 10-day forecast on my weather app still shows 60s for the highs, upper 60s at that, for my area.....

[Sambucol2024]

The 10-day forecast on my weather app still shows 60s for the highs, upper 60s at that, for my area.....

I've learned you can't trust those apps.

[wxman57]

If you folks want snow, you need to head to Hawaii. Big snowstorm on Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa yesterday. It's not looking like anyone in NE TX will see any snow in January.

https://www.tiktok.com/@accuweather/video/7592286862157319438

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/hi/hawaii/news/2026/01/05/maunakea-snow

[HockeyTx82]

If you folks want snow, you need to head to Hawaii. Big snowstorm on Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa yesterday. It's not looking like anyone in NE TX will see any snow in January.

https://www.tiktok.com/@accuweather/video/7592286862157319438

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/hi/hawaii/news/2026/01/05/maunakea-snow

It is written.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Interesting, some long-range agreement b/w the 18z GFS and the Euro AI.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_aifs/2026010518/360/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026010518/384/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

As Usual most of DFW gets hosed lol. Story of our lives.

[orangeblood]

If you folks want snow, you need to head to Hawaii. Big snowstorm on Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa yesterday. It's not looking like anyone in NE TX will see any snow in January.

https://www.tiktok.com/@accuweather/video/7592286862157319438

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/hi/hawaii/news/2026/01/05/maunakea-snow

It is written.

Yes it is, almost a guarantee for a big ticket snow storm in January now!!!

[Stratton23]

Obviously operational models wont see the cold or magnitude of it this far out, but after observing the 12z Euro with a massive - EPO ridge linking up with ridging in the arctic, id say the potential is their for this to be a pretty significant cold air dump into the plains

[orangeblood]

Obviously operational models wont see the cold or magnitude of it this far out, but after observing the 12z Euro with a massive - EPO ridge linking up with ridging in the arctic, id say the potential is their for this to be a pretty significant cold air dump into the plains

Major Arctic Outbreak potential increasing for the lower 48 end of week 2, all indices aligning on the Ensembles. ENS upper level pattern looks textbook! GEFS now trending towards the EURO ENS

To give all a better idea of the potential, these are the week 1 anomalies over Alaska (coldest climo of the year as well)...the upper level forecast is moving this down into the plains week 2

[HockeyTx82]

Obviously operational models wont see the cold or magnitude of it this far out, but after observing the 12z Euro with a massive - EPO ridge linking up with ridging in the arctic, id say the potential is their for this to be a pretty significant cold air dump into the plains

Major Arctic Outbreak potential increasing for the lower 48 end of week 2, all indices aligning on the Ensembles. ENS upper level pattern looks textbook! GEFS now trending towards the EURO ENS

To give all a better idea of the potential, these are the week 1 anomalies over Alaska (coldest climo of the year as well)...the upper level forecast is moving this down into the plains week 2

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/alaska/t2m_f_anom/1767700800/1767895200-9KSdb9TlzmQ.png

For Alaska to have that kind of Barney map, at this time of year, that's some really cold air I would imagine.

[Stratton23]

Yep, thats some cold stuff, im saying i think we are for a wild ride with this one, its the exact type of setup in which arctic air can just completely overwhelm the pattern