Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Sambucol2024]

ICON 00z doesn’t go out as far as the other globals, but at day 7 it has has our shortwave in a similar position as the GFS/ CMC, maybe a little more west than both

I think you’re right about your prediction regarding the colder weather coming around the 19th.

[Harp.1]

GFS just not cold enough

[Stratton23]

GFS looks like an overunning pattern setup, this CMC run looks like the shortwave is digging way more to the SW, again i just made a prediction that something was gonna happen during this time, i didnt actually think the models would start to be trending toward my idea lol, maybe i need to keep predicting on this one lol, of course we need the ensembles to start joining in before i can really say my predictions are anything more than that lol

[jasons2k]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1142 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast to East Texas...Western and Northern Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100445Z - 101000Z

SUMMARY...Strengthening scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr and localized 2-3" totals given some short-duration training potential for flanking cell development. Greater soil saturation/lower FFG, north and proximity to Houston metro/urban runoff to south pose localized possible incident or two for flash flooding through overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 10.3um IR loop depict a few stronger thunderstorm clusters extending from near Victoria northeastward across Southeast TX toward a weak surface low near KOCH. East of the low, a west to east stationary front crosses near I-20 and recently saturated upper soil profiles given broad 1-2" totals throughout the day. Surface to boundary layer southerly flow continues to advect upper 60s/low 70s Tds with modestly unstable air mass in the warm sector with MLCAPE values remaining at or above 1000 J/kg with spots of 2000 J/kg near the Upper TX coast. Upper level jet streak continues to expand and strengthen across the Ozark Plateau though broad right entrance ascent is providing strong divergence aloft and supporting the slightly backed and 20-25kts of low-level jet flow to obliquely intersect the slowly eastward advancing cold front.

While mid to upper levels remain dry, the anomalous moisture remains though 700mb with over 1.5" and spots nearing 1.75" within the warm sector. This results in solid moisture flux convergence and solid instability to maintain/expand the convective coverage though likely still in a scattered nature over the next few hours. Flux convergence is supporting moderately efficient rainfall production with 1.5-1.75"/hr rates. Forward progression will continue to be a limiting factor toward 2-3" streaks of rainfall totals across the area of concern, especially as the core of the jet (and therefore the right entrance divergence) shift northeastward and direct circulation allows for faster progression of the cold front through the TX Coastal Plain.

Overall totals are not a tremendous concern across the Coastal Plain, with a solid exception of the hydrophobic urban/suburban corridor of Houston. The sheer rates would be the greatest potential and even slight probability of localized 2"/hr rates may be sufficient to result in localized flooding concerns. Further north across the northern Piney Woods of E TX into Northern LA, the recent rainfall will locally result in above normal runoff, and compromised FFG values of less than 2"/hr and 3"/3hr remain capable of being exceeded again. As such, a few incidents of localized flash flooding will remain possible through the overnight period as the front presses through from west to east.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[txtwister78]

GFS just not cold enough

Yeah the question isn't about whether we may see a day or two of "colder" air relative to the long stretches of above normal temps we've been under for most of the winter. That one is pretty easy. Yes, it's going to get "colder" compared to that. We've actually seen that movie a few times throughout the winter. Heck we're seeing a minor version of that this weekend and then we rebound again a bit.

The bigger more important question is how cold do we get during this particular timeframe around the 18-19th and is that timed up with any precipitation before we once again get back into the milder pattern again?

[DukeMu]

18z GFS taking a big step in the right direction, west coast ridging nudges a bit more off shore allowing the shortwave to dig more SW, looks more like the CMC at the 500 mb level

Snowing from houston to brownsville lol

Canadian has snow in CLL. Bring it!

I wouldn’t get your hopes up. The CMC is way too cold biased.

CMC was the only model to nail the Feb. 21 winter storm.

[Cpv17]

Canadian has snow in CLL. Bring it!

I wouldn’t get your hopes up. The CMC is way too cold biased.

CMC was the only model to nail the Feb. 21 winter storm.

The CMC is always 5 to 10 degrees too cold.

[Brent]

Ugh that Euro run was disturbingly warm

[wxman22]

The rest of January is not looking good at the moment if you're looking for anything colder than seasonal temps. May be time to look into February if the trends continue. I hope im wrong though.

Maybe late January can still be "salvaged" we'll see.

[orangeblood]

Not only are the models getting warmer but it’s the most mundane/quiet pattern I’ve seen in a long time for this time of year. No big systems entering the lower 48, low QPF across 1/2 the country. Just a brutally stagnant pattern! It needs to break soon or this could get become one of the worst winters (for winter weather lovers) we’ve ever had

[wxman22]

Hopefully the transition to El Nino can help save the back half of the season. But we may not see affects from that until Spring. If all else fails atleast next season could be fun due to the El Nino. I'm a glass half full kinda person. LOL

[Yukon Cornelius]

If there is really no winter this year, which is looking likely; the amount of fleas, ticks, chiggers, and mosquitoes are going to be plague status come spring summer and fall. Fingers crossed something changes.

[Brent]

Not only are the models getting warmer but it’s the most mundane/quiet pattern I’ve seen in a long time for this time of year. No big systems entering the lower 48, low QPF across 1/2 the country. Just a brutally stagnant pattern! It needs to break soon or this could get become one of the worst winters (for winter weather lovers) we’ve ever had

Yeah I know I've been saying it's been 120 years here but honestly something has felt off since about September to me. We werent getting the crisp fall mornings we normally get for 6-8 weeks behind average(one of the latest first sub-60 lows on record) and I knew something was off then and other than the week in December it's been the story ever since and well everytime it looks sort of interesting about a week out it trends warmer drier. The whole vibe is just different this year to me after I went to Colorado two winters in a row and Kansas City last year. This year I just don't feel like going anywhere and whatever happens happens. Like I'm over that at this point

I know it can snow in March here but it hasn't even done that in 4 years. It's pretty much gonna have to be February the way it's going

[rwfromkansas]

A year ago we had a good snow here in my FB memories. Looked like 3-4 inches.

[Ntxw]

This is why next weekend is so crucial. Somehow need it to happen against odds, find a little cold and moisture to time it. If miss, then we go into Feb blanked which is not a hand we want. It also means we are also unable to overcome the warm atmosphere (consistent high heights/ridge) above our heads that has been unmoveable, really since early Fall Brent alluded to.

[Brent]

I miss when the EPS would actually latch onto a storm and not lose it. Just isn't what it used to be

It's done this for weeks... Something at the end of the run looks good and so far once it's disappeared it hasn't come back

Again with next weekend it looked good a couple runs now and now barely has anything. We gotta break that trend

[bubba hotep]

Ugh that Euro run was disturbingly warm

[cstrunk]

1.86" here yesterday. That was a huge surprise. And much needed.

[TomballEd]

I was getting into bed last night in IAH area. I heard some strong winds with the storms. We needed the rain.

[wxman22]

The 12Z GFS looks interesting...