Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

Ive been in Texas for 22 of my 25 years, and this is quite possibly the most miserable, boring winter ive ever experienced, heck i feel for those like Brent who havent seen much action, i mean granted we dont see that wintry stuff down here often, but this winter has been about as bad as watching the live action the last airbender movie, hopefully late january something changes, because this just sucks, cant sugar coat it at all

It has been pretty rough, outside of the northeastern US it's been hot. Top 1-3 for the southwest and west and we've been a fair recipient of that. The past 3 weeks is 1-2 warmest for us relative to the time period.

It's been very reminiscent of the 2011-2012 winter, but scaled up on warmth.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw yeah that cock roach ridge has been AWFUL for us, youd think something has to give eventually , GFS/ Euro keep showing the polar vortex setting back up over NA in late january, I just hope we can get something to shift the PNA, even a - PNA would be better than what we have now

[Ntxw]

Ntxw yeah that cock roach ridge has been AWFUL for us, youd think something has to give eventually , GFS/ Euro keep showing the polar vortex setting back up over NA in late january, I just hope we can get something to shift the PNA, even a - PNA would be better than what we have now

I still think things get better once we change up Alaska by the end of this week. And until that ridge pokes up there I don't expect the models in the medium or long range to see anything, not that I'm expecting super cold. But it should get better. The teleconnection indexes are decent, but they don't tell the story of the persistent Alaskan trough and central US ridge. Need both to flip. We need a high pressure dome up in the Beaufort Sea.

[gpsnowman]

Trees are blooming in the neighborhood. Saw an oak that was still changing colors at a 7-11 this morning taking my kiddo to school. We are living in the Twilight Zone.

[Cpv17]

Ntxw yeah that cock roach ridge has been AWFUL for us, youd think something has to give eventually , GFS/ Euro keep showing the polar vortex setting back up over NA in late january, I just hope we can get something to shift the PNA, even a - PNA would be better than what we have now

I still think things get better once we change up Alaska by the end of this week. And until that ridge pokes up there I don't expect the models in the medium or long range to see anything, not that I'm expecting super cold. But it should get better. The teleconnection indexes are decent, but they don't tell the story of the persistent Alaskan trough and central US ridge. Need both to flip. We need a high pressure dome up in the Beaufort Sea.

Yep, the Beaufort Sea is always the best place for a HP to get some cold down here.

[rwfromkansas]

Well, shoot. Logged back on to hope for some better news. Here's hoping that we see Alaska changes. I think that's step one.

Ultimately, I tried to enjoy the inch or so of snow in Kansas as it was falling for my holiday a few weeks ago just in case it was it. I didn't think it would be, but honestly, who knows...

If winter does end up stinking all the way, I will just pretend it's spring and enjoy the outdoors with 70s instead of 90s I guess. Try to make lemonade.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ive been in Texas for 22 of my 25 years, and this is quite possibly the most miserable, boring winter ive ever experienced, heck i feel for those like Brent who havent seen much action, i mean granted we dont see that wintry stuff down here often, but this winter has been about as bad as watching the live action the last airbender movie, hopefully late january something changes, because this just sucks, cant sugar coat it at all

It has been pretty rough, outside of the northeastern US it's been hot. Top 1-3 for the southwest and west and we've been a fair recipient of that. The past 3 weeks is 1-2 warmest for us relative to the time period.

It's been very reminiscent of the 2011-2012 winter, but scaled up on warmth.

https://i.imgur.com/uenM%20WE9.gif

https://i.imgur.com/6gu%201oEH.gif

The first pic of your post is absolutely laughable. Unreal. JB would look at that and wonder when the counter to that map would occur. This winter? Next winter?
Ensembles look better, but they are still far out for us to hang onto. Everything is pushing east. Have to be patient and wait for the MJO.

[Stratton23]

GEFS 12z has that look to it that would deliver the arctic goods to texas , fun to look at it, but im not getting the lucy football treatment again lol

[Ntxw]

The first pic of your post is absolutely laughable. Unreal. JB would look at that and wonder when the counter to that map would occur. This winter? Next winter?
Ensembles look better, but they are still far out for us to hang onto. Everything is pushing east. Have to be patient and wait for the MJO.

It's a deeply rooted ridge from top to bottom. It's the source of pattern delays. Every pattern 'shift' of teleconnections it deflects it. That's why things go east. If it was just zonal winds and mild Pacific air it would at least be wet. If I took off the dates, you would think I posted a 500mb anomaly chart for a July or August summer ridge.

And it's not new either. Hints of it came in October and November when both months were hot as well. We definitely paid up for the cooler summer.

[TomballEd]

GFS w/ a tenth of an inch locally and not a drop in North Texas through 10 days. Could be an interesting grassfire season.

[Stratton23]

AI GEFS ensemble and GEPS have that look too, i hate that its long range lol

[Ntxw]

AI GEFS ensemble and GEPS have that look too, i hate that its long range lol

Change is going to have to come from the MJO/tropics. Lets hope this MJO/WWB alters the background state away from the Maritime continent. That'll likely change our fortunes starting with rain/systems.

[txtwister78]

I continue to watch the last wk of January as an opportunity window for real cold across the southern plains. Ensemble guidance across the board seems to align today with that idea but let's see if that holds

[wxman57]

Ive been in Texas for 22 of my 25 years, and this is quite possibly the most miserable, boring winter ive ever experienced, heck i feel for those like Brent who havent seen much action, i mean granted we dont see that wintry stuff down here often, but this winter has been about as bad as watching the live action the last airbender movie, hopefully late january something changes, because this just sucks, cant sugar coat it at all

I've been in Texas since 1977 and in Houston since 1980. The best winter I ever had here was 1986. I remember the sky was clear all the time. Temperatures were warm. Highs hit the 90s in February. Ah, the good old days. This winter has been too cold for me, and it's quite dry. Could use some rain. We've had hardly any since August.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The first pic of your post is absolutely laughable. Unreal. JB would look at that and wonder when the counter to that map would occur. This winter? Next winter?
Ensembles look better, but they are still far out for us to hang onto. Everything is pushing east. Have to be patient and wait for the MJO.

It's a deeply rooted ridge from top to bottom. It's the source of pattern delays. Every pattern 'shift' of teleconnections it deflects it. That's why things go east. If it was just zonal winds and mild Pacific air it would at least be wet. If I took off the dates, you would think I posted a 500mb anomaly chart for a July or August summer ridge.

And it's not new either. Hints of it came in October and November when both months were hot as well. We definitely paid up for the cooler summer.

https://i.imgur.com/glFZ%20sse.gif

Im also basically dead center for the heat of those maps lol.

I think the moment the MJO pops off, the models will start doing much better. So, lets hang tight for a bit longer. Even longer range trends can be a bit more predictable if we have an understanding where the MJO is.

[Stratton23]

wxman57 booooooo!!!! But no seriously we do need the rain, got some a couple nights ago but wasn’t much at all, in the mean time, i’ll be focusing my powers on weakening your texas cold wall in January! The heat miser will be defeated!

[orangeblood]

Starting to like the look on both GFS and Euro Ops starting around Jan 21 of a strong PV dropping south to Canadian border...good look on both to get a big HP into the southern plains

[rwfromkansas]

Starting to like the look on both GFS and Euro Ops starting around Jan 21 of a strong PV dropping south to Canadian border...good look on both to get a big HP into the southern plains

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1768219200/1768996800-glq49tscn3I.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1768219200/1768996800-diYEi4vOk5w.png

At least it's the 21st, not the 31st.

[Iceresistance]

Starting to like the look on both GFS and Euro Ops starting around Jan 21 of a strong PV dropping south to Canadian border...good look on both to get a big HP into the southern plains

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1768219200/1768996800-glq49tscn3I.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1768219200/1768996800-diYEi4vOk5w.png

At least it's the 21st, not the 31st.

I'm sure that February is going to be crazy, like usual