Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Ntxw]

orangeblood oh no doubt the EPO is a big player , but at least it is negative, wouldn’t take much to push it more negative, but i mean we are talking the 2nd week of february and these telconnection maps change daily, I guess we will see, but i find it hard to believe that we wont get cold with a persistent strong - AO coupled with a complete Split of the PV which may or may not end up turning into a SSWE

The models aren't going to see much outside of the ~2 week period, they generally don't. Discrepancy isn't the next 1-2 weeks, all agreement is above normal anomalies, it's beyond. The ensembles will give the hints. Next week and slightly after is warm over the general continent which was easily seen far out due to the Pacific pattern the ens were hinting at well over a week ago. They're going to be in warm mode the ops for a little bit.

[Gotwood]

Things still look good to me for cold mid month, i have pretty high confidence its going to get cold down here again, the Euro still has a major split of the PV, EPS is neutral to weak - EPO which isnt bad at all, although more negative helps, -AO stays strongly negative throughout the period, - WPO stays negative on the GEFS/ GEPS and euro weeklies, if we see the ridge spike into Alaska like what i called for our arctic outbreak a few days ago, its game on, way too esrly to press the panic button on february

After watching the teleconnections closely over the past 2 decades, I'm more and more convinced the precursor to sustained cold and winter precip in the southern plains is the Strongly Negative EPO (--EPO). Without it, it can still get really cold but its normally dry just like this coming weekend. If you want the dense cold to press underneath STJ moisture riding over the top in the mid levels, you need the tanking EPO a few days before (otherwise that cold is going to get mixed up and pushed off to the east). This past winter storm had exactly that, 5 STD EPO tank a few days before the storm.... 1 to 2 Standard Deviations isn't going to cut it IMHO

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1768392000-xhvR9D6TE14grb2.png

Follow the EPO forecast closely, it typically is the #1 teleconnection precursor for big winter storms in the southern plains

How would the Split of the PV influence this potentially?

[Stratton23]

Gotwood a split with one lobe setting up in North America is going to favor a lot of cold air building in canada, we actually saw a split i believe with our most recent outbreak, different between a split and a stretch is a split usually has effects that are more long lasting compared to a PV stretch, their is the chance this turns into a SSWE which would have impacts mid- late february, i basically would not bet against cold returning in week 2 lol

[Gotwood]

Off topic is there a way to edit my username? I used an old team name for some reason when I started this account.

[orangeblood]

Things still look good to me for cold mid month, i have pretty high confidence its going to get cold down here again, the Euro still has a major split of the PV, EPS is neutral to weak - EPO which isnt bad at all, although more negative helps, -AO stays strongly negative throughout the period, - WPO stays negative on the GEFS/ GEPS and euro weeklies, if we see the ridge spike into Alaska like what i called for our arctic outbreak a few days ago, its game on, way too esrly to press the panic button on february

After watching the teleconnections closely over the past 2 decades, I'm more and more convinced the precursor to sustained cold and winter precip in the southern plains is the Strongly Negative EPO (--EPO). Without it, it can still get really cold but its normally dry just like this coming weekend. If you want the dense cold to press underneath STJ moisture riding over the top in the mid levels, you need the tanking EPO a few days before (otherwise that cold is going to get mixed up and pushed off to the east). This past winter storm had exactly that, 5 STD EPO tank a few days before the storm.... 1 to 2 Standard Deviations isn't going to cut it IMHO

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1768392000-xhvR9D6TE14grb2.png

Follow the EPO forecast closely, it typically is the #1 teleconnection precursor for big winter storms in the southern plains

How would the Split of the PV influence this potentially?

I don't really like the look of the PV split lobes being forecast with one over the Pacific Northeast, the NE Pacific lobe strongly favors central US ridging and relative warmth there compared to the West. The pattern of cold pools congregating in Alaska is a big threat to ruin the end of this winter. However, the overall strength of this SSW means the pattern remains amplified and active, so central US locations (including Texas) could still see transient cold plunges or below-normal spells rather than sustained mild weather. The surface response peaks after the stratospheric split (late Feb into early March), and ensembles will continue to refine the exact ridge position and breakdown risk.

[orangeblood]

Very impactful winter storm that will likely highlight the 2025-2026 Winter Season

 https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/2016719111988838454

[Stratton23]

yeah we got lucky with this storm, grid held up well this time, but we still got february to get through and id be lying if i said we probably wont have a couple more chances for another big winter storm down the road

[Cpv17]

Gotwood a split with one lobe setting up in North America is going to favor a lot of cold air building in canada, we actually saw a split i believe with our most recent outbreak, different between a split and a stretch is a split usually has effects that are more long lasting compared to a PV stretch, their is the chance this turns into a SSWE which would have impacts mid- late february, i basically would not bet against cold returning in week 2 lol

https://x.com/judah47/status/2016903410151268577?s=46

[txtwister78]

Agree with Ntxw assessment regarding the models and their signals at this range. We knew there would be a milder period after this shot of brutal cold so no surprise that models are showing that.

I wouldn't however put a whole lot of stock in what the Euro is advertising in the long range considering it's track record/limitations in the past at being able to see cold at those ranges.

Despite that there are some signals already coming from both the GEFS & GEPS around the 10th/11th for cold to make a return so we shall see.

[Stratton23]

Agree with everything above, 7-10 day mild period before the pattern reverses again, already this afternoons 12z EPS has a much improved block pattern compared to 00z , better poleward - EPO ridge

[Quixotic]

GOA low usually means doom. I feared that after this past week, models might have difficulty. Persistence is the mode. Once this next front is gone, we might get something completely different.

[Ntxw]

Agree with everything above, 7-10 day mild period before the pattern reverses again, already this afternoons 12z EPS has a much improved block pattern compared to 00z , better poleward - EPO ridge

I’m not as concerned about the Aleutian or goa low. It is always the pain before the gain. Yes mild pac flow with it but heat flux is north of it, it is why the Aleutian low pattern precursors cold outbreaks. You are setting up for it. What we should fear is before most major torches feature Aleutian ridges, they start cold but pump cold into Alaska long term. This is what happened earlier this winter.

[gpsnowman]

The Carolinas are about to get walloped this weekend with big time snow. My aunt in Charlotte could get several inches. I'll watch live on the Weather Channel.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

orangeblood oh no doubt the EPO is a big player , but at least it is negative, wouldn’t take much to push it more negative, but i mean we are talking the 2nd week of february and these telconnection maps change daily, I guess we will see, but i find it hard to believe that we wont get cold with a persistent strong - AO coupled with a complete Split of the PV which may or may not end up turning into a SSWE

The models aren't going to see much outside of the ~2 week period, they generally don't. Discrepancy isn't the next 1-2 weeks, all agreement is above normal anomalies, it's beyond. The ensembles will give the hints. Next week and slightly after is warm over the general continent which was easily seen far out due to the Pacific pattern the ens were hinting at well over a week ago. They're going to be in warm mode the ops for a little bit.

I agree with you on feb 2021 being more than just -epo. Im hopeful we will have another opportunity here before winter is over. A -epo would help tremendously, but maybe we can get it with other factors. Time is ticking, especially in February with higher sun angle

[orangeblood]

Things still look good to me for cold mid month, i have pretty high confidence its going to get cold down here again, the Euro still has a major split of the PV, EPS is neutral to weak - EPO which isnt bad at all, although more negative helps, -AO stays strongly negative throughout the period, - WPO stays negative on the GEFS/ GEPS and euro weeklies, if we see the ridge spike into Alaska like what i called for our arctic outbreak a few days ago, its game on, way too esrly to press the panic button on february

After watching the teleconnections closely over the past 2 decades, I'm more and more convinced the precursor to sustained cold and winter precip in the southern plains is the Strongly Negative EPO (--EPO). Without it, it can still get really cold but its normally dry just like this coming weekend. If you want the dense cold to press underneath STJ moisture riding over the top in the mid levels, you need the tanking EPO a few days before (otherwise that cold is going to get mixed up and pushed off to the east). This past winter storm had exactly that, 5 STD EPO tank a few days before the storm.... 1 to 2 Standard Deviations isn't going to cut it IMHO

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1768392000-xhvR9D6TE14grb2.png

Follow the EPO forecast closely, it typically is the #1 teleconnection precursor for big winter storms in the southern plains

While I agree the -EPO is a great indicator, it is not always the case. Feb 2021 did not have a major dive before, during, or after.

Code: Select all

2021 01 01  144.10
2021 01 02  282.21
2021 01 03  318.06
2021 01 04  267.71
2021 01 05  273.33
2021 01 06  261.38
2021 01 07  162.70
2021 01 08   87.99
2021 01 09   46.86
2021 01 10  170.47
2021 01 11  239.72
2021 01 12  247.57
2021 01 13  214.15
2021 01 14   88.49
2021 01 15  151.49
2021 01 16   86.89
2021 01 17   58.29
2021 01 18  -48.06
2021 01 19    0.37
2021 01 20  -14.91
2021 01 21  -75.51
2021 01 22  -79.36
2021 01 23   -4.28
2021 01 24   42.98
2021 01 25   36.78
2021 01 26   15.97
2021 01 27  -49.46
2021 01 28   21.72
2021 01 29  183.50
2021 01 30  134.96
2021 01 31  -73.45
2021 02 01 -153.06
2021 02 02  -88.37
2021 02 03  -18.42
2021 02 04  -42.89
2021 02 05 -110.34
2021 02 06  -98.65
2021 02 07  -34.26
2021 02 08  -22.86
2021 02 09  -33.24
2021 02 10  -61.17
2021 02 11  -44.40
2021 02 12   -8.26
2021 02 13   24.49
2021 02 14   97.49
2021 02 15  179.46
2021 02 16  169.60
2021 02 17  111.90
2021 02 18  162.43
2021 02 19  205.77

Very true, the negative 5 plus AO can take over the entire Northern Hemisphere pattern

GEFS AO forecast getting into top 10 territory on several members now . Very intriguing!

year month day ao_index_cdas
1977 1 15 -7.432610035
1977 1 16 -7.331215858
1977 1 14 -7.310880184
1977 1 13 -6.520362854
1970 3 5 -6.364555359
1985 1 19 -6.226099014
1977 1 17 -6.168218136
1970 3 6 -6.114381313
1964 6 20 -5.992156506

[Iceresistance]

I don't remember the GFS modeling this:


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkcVX.png

[gpsnowman]

I don't remember the GFS modeling this:

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkcVX.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkcVX.png

That looks nice