Texas Winter 2025-2026

[txtwister78]

Timing issues. The Tuesday storms that produced a tornado warned storm that produced straight line wind or minor tornado damage showed less instability than this a few days back. 700 J/Kg isn't high, straight hodograph but ~60 knots of speed shear and a few days for storm parameters to become more favorable, well, who knows. SPC mentions it but risk is too low to issue an outlook.

https://i.imgur.com/9YlMbri.png

I think Friday evening into Saturday is setting up to be a better chance for some severe storms across portions of the state but definitely something to watch

It probably won’t be much of anything south of I-10 though.

Too early to tell but the 12z Euro disagrees with that

[Cpv17]

I think Friday evening into Saturday is setting up to be a better chance for some severe storms across portions of the state but definitely something to watch

It probably won’t be much of anything south of I-10 though.

Too early to tell but the 12z Euro disagrees with that

I haven’t even looked at it. I’m just being a pessimist because most of the time everything is N of me.

[Brent]

I don't know what to even post at this point. Winter seems to be over I mean there's zero sign of any even remotely cold air

At least the Euro has a big rain event this weekend maybe... Given our track record though I'll believe it when I see it. Probably be in the southeast again by then. That's where most of the weather has been for months

Bring on El Nino I guess

[wxman22]

Good agreement between the models of some much needed rain this weekend across the northern half of the state and OK. Storm season is about to begin!

[bubba hotep]

Good agreement between the models of some much needed rain this weekend across the northern half of the state and OK. Storm season is about to begin!

WPC is onboard. However, I would like to see that trend westward as we get closer to the weekend.

[gpsnowman]

Good agreement between the models of some much needed rain this weekend across the northern half of the state and OK. Storm season is about to begin!

WPC is onboard. However, I would like to see that trend westward as we get closer to the weekend.

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/wpc/latest/wpc_qpf_168h_p.us_sc.png

That would be ideal. Nice to see the rain chances increase this week. If it's not going to be cold and snowy bring on spring and rainy season.

[Stratton23]

hopefully we see some drying trends for this weekend or at least delay the system or speed it up to friday , specifically valentines day i would really like it not to rain, yall can have all the rain, i do not want it

[wxman22]

Updated rainfall

[Cpv17]

I’m going to consider myself lucky if I can muster out a quarter inch this week.

[Quixotic]

I look up at the high clouds. These clouds very much indicate a cold and turbulent upper atmosphere. We aren’t done yet with cold and winter wx

[Brent]

I'm really truly amazed that somehow we had 8 inches of snow this winter... I mean I don't think we've ever had so many record highs or highs above 70 before. It's just been a constant theme of the winter except for 10 days in January

I mean it's 62 degrees at sunrise in the middle of February and I still don't see any sign of cold air. It's just insane at this point

Is the cold air gonna be in March or what cause it clearly isn't happening anytime soon

[bubba hotep]

That's some cold air up there in Western Canada on the 00z Euro. Also, the EPS is starting to trend colder for the last week of the month.



And then, there is the 06z GFS

[TomballEd]

In more important news because it happens sooner, both GFS and Euro ensemble means have a half inch or more of rain for most of Texas N of I-10, 1.5 to 2 inch amounts in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Fingers crossed for San Antonio, Austin and Houston.

[bubba hotep]

GFS has trended southward since 00z

[Stratton23]

Rooting hard for all the rain to stay north of i-10 on saturday

[wxman22]

Wouldn’t be surprised if some flood watches are issued this weekend

[TomballEd]

GFS has trended southward since 00z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026021012/120/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Kind of puts San Antonio in the screw zone. Two tenths isn't much help. Maps for a warm ENSO suggests normal to slightly above normal rainfall. I-35 San Antonio-San Marcos-Austin needs more than normal to slightly above. OT- for some reason CaCl2 precipitates faster in hot water pipes than cold water pipes, which made no sense to me until I Googled and found out heating water drives out dissolved CO2 which raises the pH of the water. At any rate, Edwards Aquifer water is quite tasty.

[TomballEd]

GFS has trended southward since 00z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026021012/120/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Kind of puts San Antonio in the screw zone. Two tenths isn't much help. Maps for a warm ENSO suggests normal to slightly above normal rainfall. I-35 San Antonio-San Marcos-Austin needs more than normal to slightly above. OT- for some reason CaCl2 precipitates faster in hot water pipes than cold water pipes, which made no sense to me until I Googled and found out heating water drives out dissolved CO2 which raises the pH of the water. At any rate, Edwards Aquifer water is quite tasty.

https://i.imgur.com/ryOT3cf.jpeg

[TomballEd]

GFS has trended southward since 00z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026021012/120/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Kind of puts San Antonio in the screw zone. Two tenths isn't much help. Maps for a warm ENSO suggests normal to slightly above normal rainfall. I-35 San Antonio-San Marcos-Austin needs more than normal to slightly above. OT- for some reason CaCl2 precipitates faster in hot water pipes than cold water pipes, which made no sense to me until I Googled and found out heating water drives out dissolved CO2 which raises the pH of the water. At any rate, Edwards Aquifer water is quite tasty. Edit to Add- Warm ENSO spring rainfall is above normal but neutral conditions seem likely (weak Nina to neutral) during that time span.

https://i.imgur.com/ryOT3cf.jpeg

I somehow quoted myself instead of editing myself. Sorry.

[txtwister78]

GFS has trended southward since 00z

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026021012/120/qpf_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Kind of puts San Antonio in the screw zone. Two tenths isn't much help. Maps for a warm ENSO suggests normal to slightly above normal rainfall. I-35 San Antonio-San Marcos-Austin needs more than normal to slightly above. OT- for some reason CaCl2 precipitates faster in hot water pipes than cold water pipes, which made no sense to me until I Googled and found out heating water drives out dissolved CO2 which raises the pH of the water. At any rate, Edwards Aquifer water is quite tasty.

https://i.imgur.com/ryOT3cf.jpeg

I think will end up doing a little better than two tenths of an inch Saturday based on the west to east track of this low. Models have always underdone energy/dynamics a bit coming out of Mexico so we should see enough lift to generate some storms along the front than globals depict currently but hoping we can put a huge dent in the drought during the upcoming spring season with the developing El Nino pattern.