Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Gotwood]

That's some cold air up there in Western Canada on the 00z Euro. Also, the EPS is starting to trend colder for the last week of the month.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2026021000/360/850t_anom.na.png

And then, there is the 06z GFS

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026021006/378/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Keeps getting pushed back doubt that verifies.

[rwfromkansas]

I bet we aren’t done with cold. Just may cycle around a bit later. Possibly too late for ideal conditions.

What is the MJO doing?

[Stratton23]

MJO goes through 2/3, Eccwf lingers in 3 longer, and the GEFS goes into P4 which is a death sentence for winter, interestingly enough, a lot of the operational guidance today has trended much colder the past week of february , getting enough push from the AO, but a lot of blocking over NA

[Stratton23]

regardless, this has been a pretty forgettable winter overall, hopefully el nino will allow for more “ fun times “ next winter

[WaveBreaking]

regardless, this has been a pretty forgettable winter overall, hopefully el nino will allow for more “ fun times “ next winter

Hopefully it’s not like 2023’s El Niño where it was too strong and the entire country got flooded with mild Pacific air.

[bubba hotep]

regardless, this has been a pretty forgettable winter overall, hopefully el nino will allow for more “ fun times “ next winter

Textbook Nina winter - mostly warm with one big cold blast

[CaptinCrunch]

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

La Niña is present.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with La Niña. There is a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring
2026.*

[Lagreeneyes03]

Uh, can I have my 80s back?

Probably won’t see those again till March. Maybe Friday afternoon you’ll have one last chance.

This is the first post on the Winter thread. LOL, Kind of ironic.

[wxman22]

It's early so take it with a grain of salt. But there are some hints showing up in the models that cold air *may* try to make a return around the end of the month. We will see...

[Golfisnoteasy75]

It's early so take it with a grain of salt. But there are some hints showing up in the models that cold air *may* try to make a return around the end of the month. We will see...

I think a -epo would have to take place for cold air to return imo or a -ao. I still believe we will get one last opportunity, but not sure when.

[Stratton23]

for late february the AO is more important than the EPO, though AI guidance suggests rising heights over Alaska is possible, but more importantly they have enough of a dip in the AO to dislodge some of the cold air down into texas

[Golfisnoteasy75]

for late february the AO is more important than the EPO, though AI guidance suggests rising heights over Alaska is possible, but more importantly they have enough of a dip in the AO to dislodge some of the cold air down into texas

What we usually see is it get colder later in March, which by then its too warm for snow and too cool for svr weather. Hopeful that isn't the case

[wxman22]

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW
LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Our next rain-producing system will be approaching the region
Thursday night into Friday as a cut-off low moves eastward through
the Southwest CONUS and northern Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms
may develop as early as Friday afternoon near the Red River.
However, the greatest chances for showers and storms will hold
off until Friday night and Saturday when widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop and gradually move
east across the region as the upper low moves overhead. This will
make for a rather rainy Valentine`s Day, so ensure you`re
monitoring the weather, and plan for disruptions to any outdoor
plans.

Nearly the entire region is expected to receive beneficial
rainfall with this system, with average rainfall totals ranging
between 1/2" and 2". The highest rainfall totals are generally
expected to be east of the I-35 corridor where moisture will be
the most plentiful. However, there could be the potential for
multiple rounds of showers and storms along the Red River, which
would result in higher totals for these areas as well. Reasonable
high-end amounts are currently expected to be upwards of 2.5-3".
Drought conditions have redeveloped as a result of the
precipitation deficit across the region, which should allow for
some mitigation of any flooding concerns. However, the extent of
our flood threat will likely depend more on how quickly any
heavier rain occurs. With the potential for embedded, locally
heavy rainfall, we`ll have to monitor the potential for flooding,
especially within any urban areas.

There still appears to be an isolated potential for severe
weather, but this threat is rather conditional at this time.
Meager instability will keep the threat low overall, but it`s
possible any surface forcing mechanisms may not align with
afternoon instability, as the cold front associated with this
system isn`t expected to arrive until Saturday night. This
introduces uncertainty as to how intense these storms will be, but
as it currently stands, isolated strong to marginally severe
storms can`t be ruled out. This threat would be highest across
Central Texas but could extend towards the Red River depending on
how far north an axis of instability is able to develop.

The aforementioned cold front will bring an end to most of the
showers and storms Saturday evening/night, though a few showers or
storms may linger through Sunday morning until the upper low
eventually departs to our east. Slightly cooler weather is
expected on Sunday with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s.
However, the cool-down will be short-lived, as highs will return
to the 70s and 80s early next week.

[TomballEd]

Anyone have the National Blend?

Imgur is past capacity, Euro ensembles are screwing I-35 S of ACT with a few tenths or less, HOU and DAL between a half and three quarters. GEFS are a little better for the Balcones Escarpment/Edwards Aquifer (and DFW) but an ensemble showing a 2 inch plus mean for parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas remains concerning. Longer term, EPS remain toasty.

[wxman22]

Anyone have the National Blend?

Imgur is past capacity, Euro ensembles are screwing I-35 S of ACT with a few tenths or less, HOU and DAL between a half and three quarters. GEFS are a little better for the Balcones Escarpment/Edwards Aquifer (and DFW) but an ensemble showing a 2 inch plus mean for parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas remains concerning. Longer term, EPS remain toasty.

Here's the National Blend.

[Edwards Limestone]

Winter is over down here. All I see is mid to upper 70s forecast for the next 10 days.

Can we at least get some damn rain if my AC has to be running in mid-Feb?

[Cpv17]

Winter is over down here. All I see is mid to upper 70s forecast for the next 10 days.

Can we at least get some damn rain if my AC has to be running in mid-Feb?

Doesn’t look like me or you are gonna get much of anything anytime soon.

[wxman22]

There could be a large windstorm with the storm system next week in the plains. I love the active dynamics this time of year.Hopefully we will have a busy storm season this Spring with the transition to El Niño, the rain is greatly needed.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The robins are back. Winter is over.