00z ETA

[Guest]

Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur

The GFS has trended S for 5 or 6 runs now.....

Very true! Hmm, it couldn't be that some Northeast residents are ignoring trends that don't favor their own backyards could it?

Of course dude....Quincy has ignored the GFS because it is further S

[WoodstockWX]

Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur

The GFS has trended S for 5 or 6 runs now.....

Very true! Hmm, it couldn't be that some Northeast residents are ignoring trends that don't favor their own backyards could it?

again, too many things going against the GFS forecast right now...read reply above.

please stop modelhugging.

[Guest]

actually eta through 42 hours gives all of CT 2-5" and 1-2" for NE CT, so that makes my map bad?

What a joke, if the ETA were to verify I would get an A- for my map.

How do 30:1 ratios do for 0.0 qpf??.....Move your map South imo

[WoodstockWX]

Notice the big LOL, but i guess you obviously didnt catch onto that..... as many here have been INSISTENT that by this time the models would be trending south for a good MA snowfall, they just havent realized yet that this will not occur

The GFS has trended S for 5 or 6 runs now.....

Very true! Hmm, it couldn't be that some Northeast residents are ignoring trends that don't favor their own backyards could it?

Of course dude....Quincy has ignored the GFS because it is further S

someone cannot read

I ignore the GFS because

1. ETA nailed last clipper
2. GFS was too far south last clipper
3. ETA and SREF are almost identicle for heaviest snows over C NJ.
4. Nothing supports a further south track besides the GFS, and the ETA has performed well in the 24-48hr time period this winter season.
5. even GFS MOS and MEX guidance gives me around 0.1" which is 2-3".

Anyone south of DCA will be hard pressed to get more than a coating, as DCA proper should be NEAR an inch.

[WoodstockWX]

also I posted earlier, by the info I have given, I believe the ETA has an 80% chance of beating the GFS.

so 4/5 times you could say GFS MORE SOUTH...MORE SNOW DOWN HERE AND LESS FOR YOU!!!!

Say that 5 times and you're right once...now you see why blizz gets a few outrageous GFS calls correct.

busting 20% of the time is a lot better than busting 80% of the time.

start using SR models like the ETA and SREF and then compare and contrast, not IGNORE THEM!!!

[Guest]

actually eta through 42 hours gives all of CT 2-5" and 1-2" for NE CT, so that makes my map bad?

What a joke, if the ETA were to verify I would get an A- for my map.

How do 30:1 ratios do for 0.0 qpf??.....Move your map South imo

eta has 0.08" here and with 30:1 thats 2.4"

look at p36 for hr48 and the .1" line just about makes it to my house.

I'm not worried at all, I'm just worried so many will bust when DCA gets an inch or possibly less.

Does the ETA output for Bethesda, Silver Spring and Annapolis give <1"??...LOL

[WoodstockWX]

actually eta through 42 hours gives all of CT 2-5" and 1-2" for NE CT, so that makes my map bad?

What a joke, if the ETA were to verify I would get an A- for my map.

How do 30:1 ratios do for 0.0 qpf??.....Move your map South imo

eta has 0.08" here and with 30:1 thats 2.4"

look at p36 for hr48 and the .1" line just about makes it to my house.

I'm not worried at all, I'm just worried so many will bust when DCA gets an inch or possibly less.

Does the ETA output for Bethesda, Silver Spring and Annapolis give <1"??...LOL

if you read my inital post with the map I said areas WEST of BWI in maryland and NW VA may see more snow than my map, because of the higher terrain of the locations. So 1-3" for those areas IF my map doesn't say that because I don't have time to lose precious sleep over this -removed-.
Time for bed, have a great evening folks.

[Guest]

also I posted earlier, by the info I have given, I believe the ETA has an 80% chance of beating the GFS.

so 4/5 times you could say GFS MORE SOUTH...MORE SNOW DOWN HERE AND LESS FOR YOU!!!!

Say that 5 times and you're right once...now you see why blizz gets a few outrageous GFS calls correct.

busting 20% of the time is a lot better than busting 80% of the time.

start using SR models like the ETA and SREF and then compare and contrast, not IGNORE THEM!!!

ETA is not expansive enough with precip and rarely is....That is why BOS will see snow, as will Fredericksburg...You can't have it both ways

[Guest]

KID how do you come to the conclusion the ETA is right 36 hrs before the flakses start to fall

Please explain that gibberihs

00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.

[WoodstockWX]

KID how do you come to the conclusion the ETA is right 36 hrs before the flakses start to fall

Please explain that gibberihs

00z eta continues to get DCA very light accumulations of maybe an inch.

ETA looks to have this storm nailed...00z is slightly drier and the precip is a tad more SE at the end, but compared to 18z 36hr precip its NO wetter for anyone in the mid atlantic, so I believe I still have a good forecast map.

I did read my numerous posts.

ETA/SREF in agreement and
eta did better on the last clipper which GFS was too far south with
also GFS keeps waffling and may soon buckle north at the last minute shocking many folks on here.

read my -removed- thread DT.

these folks that are against me and my forecast are modelhugging the GFS and totally ignoring the ETA and SREF as well as THE LAST CLIPPER ADN ITS VERIFICATION.

cant type any longer good night.

[Anonymous]

please stop modelhugging.

Again, I was joking... but seriously, I still think your forecast is at least a little bit too far north. I'm not going to claim one model or the other is correct from 24hrs away, though. It may well be that the Eta has the right idea and I wake up to P/C Thursday morning with a dusting on the ground, but I think there's an equal chance I wake up with 2 or 3" (as per the GFS). At this point, though, I think choosing one model and suggesting people looking at any others are modelhugging is premature. Let's just wait and see what the radars look like at this time tomorrow night... given the recent history of storms in the eastern third of the country, anything is possible.