12z March 1 GFS - Perhaps a shot of snow for the MA...

[ezweather]

Okay...

Let's see, I had to go out to 216 hours to see something interesting. Well for 216 hours, on Wednesday March 10th shows pretty good cold shot. Even has the 500mb low over PA. Hmmm. Do I really buy this solution. Let's see, the European run last night at 240 showed, not as cold, but does show a trough in the East. The Polar vortex way up north, perhaps near the Arctic circle. GEM GLB showed, nothing really interesting. Right now, I don't buy that at the moment. I'm going with trends. If anything we should start and end the same way with a big storm.

Well, I say the cutoff point for the Mid-Atantic would be April 15th for any odd ball weather, meaning a chance of some snow or a minor storm.

I guess this winter of '04 will go down as an average season, yes plenty of very cold air in January, but as far as the major winter storms, you could say, from back in December, a major storm hit New England with record snowfall, to a powerful blizzard that hit eastern Canada the third week in February to lastly a winter storm that hit the Carolinas on the 26th and 27th. Oh, I guess that December 5th storm might have been a system to note.

Well, thats my quick and fast caption for this past winter.

Now, we have to wait till we get into severe weather season. That will probably really kick in late May/June. For the very impressive outbreaks of severe weather, that time period of May/June is the best where better heating, less ocean effect. The classic setup for a large severe weather outbreak, how about having a 990mb low in northwest PA with a hot and steam airmass south and east, include some powerful upper level dynamics and bam you have a major outbreak like the one in 1998. Definitely the risk for tornadoes would be high. I believe that was the period. I can recall the Weather Channel using the color white for high risk severe over PA and then into NJ. What a time that was. Man, that squal line that moved throught the Philly area was amazing. Very incredible day for severe weather. Now thats a storm. Something you would hear from that Australian movie. Oops..This discussion should be on the other board. I'll make sure of that next time.

Okay, thats about all now...

PS: Wouldn't it be nice to have on big winter storm to end the season...

[JCT777]

It would be nice to have one more decent snow event. Hopefully it will happen this month.