Possible Blizzard?

[azsnowman]

Could this next system produce "blizzard like" conditions? Kinda sounds like it to me!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 255 AM MST FRI NOV 26 2004 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. BY SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY WINDS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DRAMATICALLY. && .DISCUSSION...WEAK S/WV MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SHARPLY INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS FROM THE WESTERN RIM NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SATURATION FOR A FEW HOURS. WE HAVE RAISED POPS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD TOP ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RIDGE TRIES TO RECOVER AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER S/WV WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY...AND INTO ARIZONA SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL DIG AND CUT-OFF LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH VERY COLD AIR AND WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY...AND AGAIN SUNDAY OUT EAST. HAVE DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINES FOR NOW AS WE ARE STILL AROUND 60 HOURS OUT...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A SNOW AND POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENT. PETERSON.

Dennis

[Lowpressure]

Does sound like it may be a bit nasty. Enjoy, we are still looking for our first flakes here in D.C., it may still be a while. 27.3 this morning, but crystal clear.

[Guest]

Dennis this is looking to be perhaps a huge event for down there. More so over near the 4 corners region. Either way with a track perhaps across the US/MX line alot of AZ and NM imo should do very well from this at the higher elevations.

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

I might teend more in the ETA solution, bringing the low further west than the GFS. My models point to a further west solution as well. still could see snow in AZ saturday and sunday. Interesting 700vv values along the Rim, and Norther AZ. Thunderstorms look probable there during the storm apssage. Im still gonna trend to my and eta modes, bring the low further west. almost taking the same track the other one did last weekend.

[azsnowman]

The system is becoming a little bit more defined as the hours past as evident by the HWO that just issued:

LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
755 AM MST FRI NOV 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS TOO MUCH OF THE REGION ABOVE 4500-5000 FEET...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FALLING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
5000 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THE STORM...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA WILL REACH 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

Dennis

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Im rally not seeing anything for you Dennis really to get worked up till sunday night, when the main dynamics come your way...Through Saturday Night, though main frontal will be going across Srn California

[azsnowman]

Im rally not seeing anything for you Dennis really to get worked up till sunday night, when the main dynamics come your way...Through Saturday Night, though main frontal will be going across Srn California

Well, we'll see

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Pay close attention to the HIGHS and "LOWS!" All the local mets are saying, that this WILL be the "COLDEST" system in YEARS (10)



Tonight: Partly cloudy. Light winds. Lows 21 to 28.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Windy. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Highs 41 to 51.

Saturday night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Snow showers likely after midnight. Windy. Snow level around 7000 feet with up to 2 inches of accumulation. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Lows 24 to 31. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Sunday: Rain and snow showers likely. Windy. Much cooler. Snow level around 6000 feet. Snow accumulation up to 6 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph becoming 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph. Highs 31 to 41. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Sunday night: Snow showers likely. Snow accumulation up to 4 inches. Northwest winds around 15 mph and gusty in the evening becoming light. Lows 16 to 22. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely. Highs 27 to 37. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Monday night: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 7 to 14.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 32 to 42.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 262241 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 330 PM MST FRI NOV 26 2004 .SYNOPSIS...BY SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDY CONDITIONS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 2000 FEET.

[azsnowman]

A wind advisory has just been posted, winds in EXCESS of 45-50 MPH are in the forecast as a precursor to this system.

Dennis

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Well Dennis, my models have finally kicked in, late but still kicking in showing that the storm system, very cold!, and also blizzard conditions for your area with it. It will regain strength in Northern AZ on monday, and strong it will be. Stay safe, and ill keep ya posted on the newxt model runs of mine.

[azsnowman]

HEY AZSKYMAN....you'd better your snow shovels out there in Scottsdale, Phoenix metro area...YOU sir, could VERY well see SNOW out of this system due to it's bitterly cold core

STRONG DIVQ AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 8 TO 12 HOURS...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS WILL ALSO SWITCH. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE ETA MODELS KEEPING MORE OF A STEADY PRECIPITATION GOING OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A PAUSE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A COMPROMISE SEEMS BEST. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL REACH INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MOST ZONES. WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT LOOKS GOOD...BUT WE WILL ADD ZONE 14 TO THE ADVISORY AS WELL. DO NOT THINK WE NEED SNOW HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AND ALL WE NEED BELOW 5000 FEET IS AN INCH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MORE POSSIBLE STORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. PETERSON.

Dennis

[Tornado_Chaser2005]

Hey Dennis, I can see your scenerio for heavy snow and wind coming now. Latest analysis brings the low with almost NOTHING in a way of 500mb vort values. No vertical air rising much at the sunday time frame. However the Low system will be centered right near you on Monday Morning at around sunrise. Also interesting is the location of the highest 500mb vort values. right over you. So this combined with incrediably cold temps, and al that dynamic I mentioned will make for a messy morning.