
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE AFFECT ON WEATHER OVER CWA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST BECOMES A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH AND STRONG VORT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF IS NOT AS
STRONG AS MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AS IT DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
VERY POTENT VORT (35 PER SEC) OVER GREAT LAKES AND DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ALSO GFS CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE INDICATE PTYPE AS SNOW. HOWEVER
THE BIG QUESTION/CONCERN IS WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE AS QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.