Possible severe weather for Midsouth/Southeast Wed-Thu

[ALhurricane]

Models continue to be in fairly good agreement about a severe weather risk across the southeastern portion of the country. These areas will warm up a great deal with WSW-SW flow aloft and a southerly flow at the surface which will allow the Gulf to be wide open for business.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

This is the 12z GFS run. It has been fairly consistent with the timing of the front and other models generally agree. The region will come under the right rear quadrant of a 110kt jet...a 50-60 kt low level jet with a good 850mb thermal ridge..and a shortwave that becomes negatively tilted as it phases with the northern branch. It will all depend on how much cloud cover is over the warm sector (this affects the instability.) However, 700-500mb lapse rates are shown to reach up toward 7C/km wednesday night into thursday. Definitely a good possibility of a squall line developing with possible discrete supercells out ahead of it. As always, things may change with time, but the potential is certainly there.

[yoda]

How far north would this go? Into the MA? I am not good at reading the lapse rates, or the llvl jet...

[ALhurricane]

Possibly so. Wind fields will still be strong. May have a tougher time with instability that far north though. That will be the deciding factor.

[jkt21787]

AL, definitely watching for strong/severe storms here mid-week. The HWO here already mentions it. As you said, instability will be the question but wind fields will be strong (typical this time of year). Steep lapse rates would help a lot.

Looks like the warm weather could end with a big bang!