Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Tejas89]

Feel like I've been Debbie Downer lately, but FW office continues to rain on this parade.

STILL APPEARS THE IMPULSE ON MONDAY WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT
OKLAHOMA...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO SPRINKLE -SN/FLURRIES ALONG THE RED
RIVER. ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER IMPULSE EJECTS.
CONCERNED GFS IS STILL TOO SLOW...AND WILL BRING ARCTIC AIR IN
LATE MONDAY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE COLD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
TRACK OF AIR MASS CORE IS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE
BACKING FLOW ALOFT...MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE SFC HIGH IS QUITE
REASONABLE. MODERATING SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY...BEYOND
WHICH THE PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER ARCTIC INTRUSIONS.
CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY OUTLOOKS FAVOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR NORTH
TEXAS.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

northtxboy,
Megan is very attractive, especially off camera.
Very intelligent woman!

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't get too caught up in amounts if any yet. So far there's only been a set of good runs, remember in Feb? Said 8+ inches in Tyler and basically an inch in DFW two days or so before it. Lets see what the rest of today shows. We should be able to zero in on it within the next 24 hours or so. I'd still like the GFS fully on board before feeling happy and even remotely guess on 'amounts' lol.

12z NAM = Sneaux

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

This is from the National Weather Service in FW

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
743 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-072130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
743 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2011

...A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY...

...COLD WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...


AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND AREA WIDE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF I-20. THE BEST CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE
NORTH OF A JACKSBORO TO EMORY LINE...WHERE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW OCCURS AND HOW MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATES.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
THE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO UPPER 20S
SOUTHEAST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF
A JACKSBORO TO EMORY LINE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY WEATHER EVENT.


$$

[wxman57]

I believe that Dallas is a bit west of the heavy snow. They appear to be in the 1-3" area. The bullseye looks closer to Longview/Tyler. Could be a band of heavy snow from extreme NE TX across northern LA/MS/AL/GA to SC this weekend.

I don't doubt you, Wxman57 ... I was just basing my post on a graphic which I viewed at the site below (go to the link and click on the blue square near DFW's location). It will show a graphic representation of the 6z NAM.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.htm

I see, looks like we have dueling NAM graphics. The one on twisterdata.com shows the snow east of Dallas.

[wxman57]

northtxboy,
I interned with Megan Krannig; she's a great meteorologist!
Hopefully we will see some watches issued with the afternoon package.

Megan worked with us in our broadcast department for the past few years. She's great on-camera and was a valued member of our softball team. Sorry to see her go.

[northtxboy]

wow snow in texas agian,,,i cant wait

[Portastorm]

Let's refrain from the subjective comments about how particular persons are photogenic and focus on the weather. If I see any more, I'm hitting the delete button and handing out warnings. Thanks!

[Ntxw]

Nearing shore this morning. How suppressed the track is will be key on how much cold air/moisture arrives. Looks like the far northeastern Texas areas can sleep easy tonight for the rest of us it's a sit and wait game! Portastorm will have Lucy ready on standby.

[Portastorm]

Hi all. I am new to this site. I have a few questions, if you don't mind. When the new model runs come out, which sites do you use to view them? Is there any one model that is consistantly better than the others? Is there any particular site you like best to view the weather models? Instead of asking questions like "will it snow where I live" or "how much snow might we get", I would like to learn how to forecast that, so how do you go about determining how much snow an area will get (if any), based on the models?

I just found this board a few days ago and I have already learned alot, so thank you!

Welcome to Storm 2k! Let me try and answer your questions and encourage others to chime in as appropriate.

A number of sites contain model runs. The main models that folks focus on are the GFS, the European (ECMWF), the Canadian (GGEM or CMC), and the NAM. Below are some links for accessing these model runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
http://www.twisterdata.com/

The European generally scores better than the other models in the 5-6 day range. GFS is usually second. Each model has its own biases, strengths, and weaknesses. In reading forecast discussions out of NWS forecast offices, you can get an idea on which models are being followed and which are being thrown out for whatever reason.

I will leave your question about how to use the models to forecast snow up to our pro mets. We have a number of them on here and they are all excellent! Forecasting snow, especially in the South, is not easy even for the pros. Lots to consider.

Anyhow, welcome aboard! You have joined at an interesting weather time.

[Portastorm]

12z NAM looks a little faster and a little warmer for DFW ... not a good trend, unless I'm reading it incorrectly.

[cperez1594]

Brownsville NWS is on board and ready!

[Ntxw]

12z NAM looks a little faster and a little warmer for DFW ... not a good trend, unless I'm reading it incorrectly.

That's splitting hairs Portastorm. But yeah it's not as crazy as the 6z still a trend different than 12 hours ago . Look at the impressive trowal/comma head associated with that thing though, those are always difficult to predict as well, March .





I've come about something. I hear often the 6z and 18z do not have such reliabilities as there isn't new ingested data. Yet last night proved otherwise. The 0z suite didn't come about (GGEM and EC did though) and it was the 6z of the GFS and NAM that switched. Fishy...

[Portastorm]

12z NAM looks a little faster and a little warmer for DFW ... not a good trend, unless I'm reading it incorrectly.

That's splitting hairs Portastorm. But yeah it's not as crazy as the 6z . Look at the impressive trowal/comma head associated with that thing though, those are always difficult to predict as well, March .

I'm just trying to keep it real, bro!

Since I'm not getting snow/ice this weekend, I'm intent on making the rest of you miserable as well.

All kidding aside, I personally wouldn't start buying too much into model runs until tonight's 0z runs which I feel will have a much better reading on the west coast storm. As I told srainhoutx this morning, I feel there will be some surprises in the next seven days and this pattern still holds potential.

[txagwxman]

12z NAM supports snow Dallas.

[northtxboy]

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2011010712_F57_33.0000N_97.0000W.png
12z NAM supports snow Dallas.

yaaaaaaaa snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I cant wait I have been waiting all week,,,been along week

[txagwxman]

Just the NAM though...see what the 12z GFS does.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Just the NAM though...see what the 12z GFS does.

Yes, I'm excited to see what the 12z GFS show!

[northtxboy]

Now I cant wait to see what happens for next week,,been focusing all my time on this weekend,,anyone know what we might see for late next week?

[txagwxman]

Now I cant wait to see what happens for next week,,been focusing all my time on this weekend,,anyone know what we might see for late next week?

It should warm up by next Friday/Saturday.