Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

I believe we are headed for another Pineapple Express situation next week. I am not sure that it will result in as much flooding with the snow in the mountains down to nothing... but it looks like it will be warm and wet.

The beat goes on.

[TT-SEA]

And the positive PNA forecast gets more intense...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html

[andycottle]

Very foggy here this morning with a temp of 43 and humidity 100%. Baro is 29.53 and steady as of 9:18am. Just checked visable satellite, and looks like the cascades are covered in clouds as well. So Tim, doesn`t look like your seeing sun this morning! Not at all.

[TT-SEA]

Filtered sun through some thicker high clouds when I left the house at 8:30 a.m.

Breezy though with awesome visibility and a temperature of 55.8 degrees and a dewpoint of 39 degrees.

Came around the last hill before Issaquah heading west on I-90 and drove right into the fog bank. Just a soupy mess. I wanted to turn around and spend the day at home... but alas... I must earn a living!!

[andycottle]

Hi Folks.

Taking a look at the 06 and 12z long range GFS...it appears that 6z wants to develope a BIG high pressure over PNW and over much of the Western U.S 7th through 10th time frame. However, 12z flattens that high pressure ridge somewhat to where we have showers/moderate showers over PNW/Western Wa., and as well as the upper portions of Montana. So we will have to see how the theme plays out.

If the GFS holds ture..(ha ha ha...yeah right!) 500MB voricity heights on Monday evening the 7th, are really high....as in 570DM! And also, 850MB voricitys shows heights of 1560 to almost 1620M and temp of around +3C.

-- Andy

[Brian_from_bellingham]

The CPC in the "Hazards Assesment" says that in the longer range, it looks like a very large high pressure system over the west, and colder over the east, and they are vulnerable to more storms. If things dont turn around in the next week or so, it may be too late for this winter.

[TT-SEA]

Brian... you have come over to the dark side!!

There is NOT going to be a turn-around in the next two weeks. In fact... probably another Pineapple Express.

Welcome to spring. Summer is right around the corner.

[Persepone]

What's a Pineapple Express?

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Storm systems coming to the Northwest from the area of Hawaii. The storms are very warm with all that tropical air (and why we have been so warm), and are often very juicy with rain, as warm air can hold more moisture then cold air. This is the cause of a lot of our floods, as the snow level will go up to 7,000 feet or more, bringing heavy rains to the mountains and causing snow to melt.

[andrewr]

A Pineapple Express is basically when the jetstream goes from the south Pacific (usually around Hawaii) and right to the Pacific Northwest. It causes very warm temperatures and a lot of rain.

[TT-SEA]

And I believe its coming back!!

Looks like the rule of cold weather following a Pineapple Express will not be followed this year. Instead we have a Pineapple Express following a Pineapple Express.

[Cumulonimbus]

TT

I think the ridge of high pressure looks too strong(at this point) to bring any significant rain in here. In fact the one last time didn't last very long as the models incorrectly forecast the strength of the ridge over us. The VERY dominate pattern until further notice will be the strong ridge dominating our weather until the entire northern hemisphere pattern changes and remains changed for more than a month. I agree with you-spring is here this year and summer is right around the corner. IF the pattern remains locked in through the summer pray we do NOT get any thunderstorms west of the Cascades. It will be so dry here by then a discarded cigarette will be all it takes to set the hills ablaze. I fear bad times ahead...UNLESS we revert to a soggy gray summer which I wouln't mind. I am also very glad I do not have a well for my source of water.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF show this pattern better and is model of choice right now. I think we will get more heavy rain next week.

I also believe it is too early to determine what summer will bring. These types of winters are many times followed by a summer with consistent rain. Still lots of sun... but periods of rain to keep it from drying out too much.

[andycottle]

Well in my opinion, I think this summer will be VERY WARM to Hot, along with some T- Storms....a few of which will probably drift of the Cascades and into the lowlands of Western Wa. AND if our current snow pack stays REALLY low like it is now....we are sure to have a bad drought this summer, along with very brown lawns. -- Andy

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Andy, if that does happen, lots of hot weather, thunderstorms after a dry winter, that adds up to the potential for a bad forest fire season. Hopefully we will get enough rain during the summer to reduce the fire danger, and hopefully not have to conserve water.

[AnthonyC]

It looks like winter's on hiatus for awhile...if not for the rest of winter. lol. Another disappointing winter if you ask me...but I won't write it off just yet. We could get a freak winterstorm in late February, early March. But as of now, nothing's coming together...positive PNA, negative AO (which has opportunity, but nothing else is coming together), strong trough in the east/ridge in the west, etc. I wouldn't give up on winter just yet, but it's on a long hiatus...and if it doesn't come back soon, it's over. I do agree with TT-SEA...I see another pineapple express beginning Wednesday of next week. Even the latest GFS models are picking up on this evolving pattern. This really stinks because at this rate, the ski resorts will never reopen. This has been an absolutely terrible winter for the mountain passes...if not the worst winter in history.

Anthony

Currently a COOL 48 F with light rain.

[R-Dub]

Anthony did you get your tapes?

1/26/05 LK Goodwin WA
2:30:48 PM CURRENT
LT Rain
Temperature (ºF) 51.5
Humidity (%) 80.8
Wind (mph) SE 0.9
Daily Rain (") 0.00
Pressure ("Hg) 29.80
Dew Point: 45.8 ºF

[andycottle]

A cool 48 degrees here to, and with cloudy skies. Baro has fell slightly to 29.53. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

The East Coasters on this site are all excited about the projected pattern for February.




This means WARM and DRY for the Pacific Northwest guys. Another confirmation that spring is here to stay.

[andrewr]

Warm and dry is fine with me... I have to work outside anyways. When it was 20 degrees earlier in the month, it really sucked. Especially with no snow.