Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

I don't know gang. At this point, I'm thinking next week's cold front(s) won't be as stout as what we have had the last two days.

Sure the operational runs of the models are struggling and its a tough pattern as has been said. But it is hard to ignore 48 hours of operational runs that move the coldest air to our northeast. I'll be patient but I'm not exactly excited about next week's prospects.

[snow and ice]

I don't know gang. At this point, I'm thinking next week's cold front(s) won't be as stout as what we have had the last two days.

Sure the operational runs of the models are struggling and its a tough pattern as has been said. But it is hard to ignore 48 hours of operational runs that move the coldest air to our northeast. I'll be patient but I'm not exactly excited about next week's prospects.

Scrooge!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12/11 0Z says get out the snow shovels South Texas!


Look at the 1052MB in Montana! Something like that would get the old timers in the RGV citrus groves some pause.

[srainhoutx]

12/11 0Z says get out the snow shovels South Texas!


Look at the 1052MB in Montana! Something like that would get the old timers in the RGV citrus groves some pause.

And the parallel shows just the opposite.

[Texas2Florida]

I only see green in extreme S. TX..I'm in DFW so I'm hoping for some winter weather. Cold weather without snow or ice is a waste of time.. LOL,,then just ship me back to FL and give me a hurricane..

Snow to the north....

Snow to the south.....

the "middle child" (N. TX) needs some attention!

[vbhoutex]

I don't want to seem all excited here, but OMG!OMG!OMG!!! IF, IF, IF the 00z GFS run were to verify the weather associated with it, especially in TX would be WAY PAST HISTORIC!! It would be DEVASTATING!!! No, I don't expect this to verify since we are so far out, but if it is indicative of a trend then we are in for a wild ride the rest of this month!
For those not versed in reading the models the basics are we are looking at temps below freezing for 4-5 days around and including Christmas along with some winter precipitation thrown in for most of the state including the RGV.
Once again, I am not about to think that something that historic shown on a model this far out would verify, but I don;t rhink I have ever seen models showing that much cold for that long along with wintery precipitation.

[attallaman]

I don't want to seem all excited here, but OMG!OMG!OMG!!! IF, IF, IF the 00z GFS run were to verify the weather associated with it, especially in TX would be WAY PAST HISTORIC!! It would be DEVASTATING!!! No, I don't expect this to verify since we are so far out, but if it is indicative of a trend then we are in for a wild ride the rest of this month!
For those not versed in reading the models the basics are we are looking at temps below freezing for 4-5 days around and including Christmas along with some winter precipitation thrown in for most of the state including the RGV.
Once again, I am not about to think that something that historic shown on a model this far out would verify, but I don;t rhink I have ever seen models showing that much cold for that long along with wintery precipitation.

Where do you go to look at those model runs? Which website?

[Portastorm]

Haa! Lucy has got all y'all going!!

For the last three days the GFS keeps backing up this so-called winter event ... backing it further and further on the calendar. That is never a good sign.

I'm about ready to post my "winter = cancel" note.

[gboudx]

Haa! Lucy has got all y'all going!!

For the last three days the GFS keeps backing up this so-called winter event ... backing it further and further on the calendar. That is never a good sign.

I'm about ready to post my "winter = cancel" note.

"Bones" needs to make an appearance on some of these GFS storms.

[srainhoutx]

Haa! Lucy has got all y'all going!!

For the last three days the GFS keeps backing up this so-called winter event ... backing it further and further on the calendar. That is never a good sign.

I'm about ready to post my "winter = cancel" note.

Don't tell Lucy about the 00Z ECMWF, ok. It will be "our" little secret from her.

Mighty chilly in the NW Territories this morning...


Yellowknife Airport
Date: 6:00 AM MST Friday 11 December 2009
Condition:Clear
Pressure:102.5 kPa
Tendency:rising
Visibility:24 km

Temperature:-40.3°C
Dewpoint:-44.6°C
Humidity:63 %
Wind:N 9 km/h
Wind Chill: -50

Very strong Polar Vortex over Canada is really something to watch. A lot of cold air also heading over the North Pole from W Siberia. I suspect things will get interesting for some folks in the Lower 48 in the days ahead. We will see how far S this airmass plunges.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[snow and ice]

Haa! Lucy has got all y'all going!!

For the last three days the GFS keeps backing up this so-called winter event ... backing it further and further on the calendar. That is never a good sign.

I'm about ready to post my "winter = cancel" note.

The trend on the models in the medium to long range is not good this morning. Both the Ensembles and the EURO keep moving the trough further east with each run. Right now, it looks like a glancing blow of cold air for eastern Texas, with a quick warm up to follow. However, this could change in the next week or so.

0z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121100!!/
Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f336.html

[Portastorm]

Here's the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Cloudy, cold, and soon to be wet for this afternoon into Saturday.

Next storm system is a little slower than previously thought and will need to push higher rain chances into tonight and add rain chances for at least the first half of Saturday. Upglide is in progress this morning as surface low pressure forms off the lower TX coast in region of forcing from the approaching short wave to our west. Active sub-tropical plume remains anchored over the region proving a blanket of high to mid level clouds while low level clouds will be developing from SW to NE today as moisture deepens and uppglide increases. Will see bases lower and then saturate the surface layer allowing fog and light rain to develop by late afternoon. Surface low will keep gusty NE winds in place and with clouds and rain developing temperatures will change little.

This system should clear east by late Saturday, but clearing appears only brief if at all as very active southern branch jet remains parked over head (Did someone say we are in an El Nino year?) Warm air advection will increase Sunday with lower to mid 60 degree dewpoints moving into the region ahead of the next storm system. Near shore water temperatures in the low 60's will support dense sea fog formation as higher dewpoint high is brought northward over the cold shelf water chilling it to saturation. Expect a similar bout of fog to early this week starting Sunday night...coastal counties may stay locked in the soup until the next front passes early Tuesday.

Next storm system in this highly progressive flow passes through the area next Tuesday. Cold arctic air mass locked up over the northern states will be transported SE with what appears to be a glancing blow for TX. Will keep the heart of this cold NE of TX with lows/highs over SE TX running 5-10 degrees below average. Still feel it is best to undercut the GFS guidance by about 5 degrees after Tuesday...it could still be a bit colder than that if a stronger dump is sent down the plains.

Far Range Extended:
GFS continues to indicate an amplifying pattern toward the week of Christmas with bitter cold developing over NW Canada. Several of the past runs have shown this air mass being unlocked and sent due southward around the 23rd. For now will watch the overall pattern trends in the models and not so much the run to run fine details...GFS would likely not handle such a cold outbreak all that well anyhow...but it has been fairly consistent in the last 2 days on this pattern of cold coming south and an active southern branch continuing. For those that do view the guidance runs...I would not get all that excited on the GFS potential event on the 24th and 25th...if it remains in the guidance for the next 5 days then we may need to start talking about another winter precipitation event.

[srainhoutx]

Well the wintry weather for Christmas in TX is back on again via both the Parallel and old GFS. As Jeff and wxman57(in the "local Forum") have stated, if it's still showing up next week, then we may have something to talk about. Either way, we look to get a warming period for about 4-5 days next week then things will get interesting. Longer range trends are looking "Cold" to say the least.

Parallel GFS..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_300l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_312l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_324l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_336l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_348l.gif

Regular GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_336l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_348l.gif

[iorange55]

That would be nothing short of a miracle if that played out

[HockeyTx82]

Ok, correct me if I am wrong, but do those model runs show temps getting into the 20's with precip over the whole state? Who flipped on the "let's play around with people's minds" switch on the computer? That just looks impossible and crazy. Has anyone ever seen a setup like that play out for real? I have not been following weather at that level for very long.

[Ntxw]

Actually I don't think I can recall that COLD and wet in most models runs ever (especially around Christmas). What a fun sight to look at.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Those GFS runs show Oklahoma getting in on the holiday winter weather action too! Unfortunately though, I will be out of town during the Christmas timeframe and would miss the fun..

[southerngale]

While it may be waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to buy into the models, I'd rather see cold and wet than hot and dry around Christmas. Just keep it up, GFS.

[snow and ice]

Model Mayhem. Today's two runs(0z and 12z)of the EURO couldn't be any different at 240hrs. 0z has a trough in the east. The 12z has a ridge in the east.

0z EURO @ 240hrs:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121100!!/
12z EURO @ 240hrs:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121112!!/

[snow and ice]

:uarrow:

Well the wintry weather for Christmas in TX is back on again via both the Parallel and old GFS. As Jeff and wxman57(in the "local Forum") have stated, if it's still showing up next week, then we may have something to talk about. Either way, we look to get a warming period for about 4-5 days next week then things will get interesting. Longer range trends are looking "Cold" to say the least.

Parallel GFS..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_300l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_312l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_324l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_336l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_348l.gif

Regular GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_300l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_312l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_324l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_336l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_348l.gif

Amazingly, the 12z Ensembles do coincide with the 12z operational run of the model. That is encouraging. Strong west coast ridge with an elongated negatively tilted trough.
12z Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f312.html
The big arctic high coming down the plains Christmas week, with another 1052mg High waiting in the wings at the end of the period.
12Z Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21112.html