Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

Based on the text below from the WPC Extended Forecast desk, it appears the models are struggling with the NE Pacific:


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 13 2016 - 12Z SAT DEC 17 2016

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES FOR FLOW ALOFT TO THE S/E OF NERN PAC/ALASKA
MEAN RIDGING CONTINUES TO REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN SOME ASPECTS OF THE
FCST. DIFFS WITH HANDLING OF INITIAL ERN PAC ENERGY ARE ALREADY
PRONOUNCED ON DAY 3 TUE. THEN THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD FOR
UPSTREAM FLOW... SOME OF WHICH SHOULD FEED INTO ERN PAC/WRN CONUS
TROUGHING AND THE REST CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN STATES.
RELATIVELY SPEAKING THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE DEEP
UPR LOW CROSSING NRN ONTARIO AROUND MIDWEEK AND CONTINUING EWD
THEREAFTER. THE MOST COMMON THEME REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO
VERIFIES IS THE PERSISTENCE OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN TIER STATES WITH SOME OF THIS COLD AIR EXTENDING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE EAST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.

[dhweather]

Move along, folks, nothing to see here next week (according to the overnight models). Neither model even has freezing temps for Houston over the next 10 days. Euro does predict sub-freezing temps for the DFW area next weekend - but NO snow across Texas.

Given that the models have so much run-to-run variance even 4-5 days out, I'd be careful about believing anything that you see in any run beyond the next 2-3 days.

This is the gospel.

A slight change can make a huge difference next week.

But the trend seems to be for a big warmup next weekend, followed by the return of the arctic.


At least its not the same temps and no rain for the next 14 days.

[dhweather]

Out in lala land, the 6Z PGFS. But this turns back to liquid in 6-12 hours. 12Z rolling in, we'll see what it says.

[starsfan65]

The models are all over the place.

[Hurricane_Apu]

First freeze this morning in Lafayette. And maybe the last for quite some time, if the models are right about the whole '1050+ Arctic HP's bouncing off an August-strength Bermuda High like ping pong balls' thing...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

First freeze this morning in Lafayette. And maybe the last for quite some time, if the models are right about the whole '1050+ Arctic HP's bouncing off an August-strength Bermuda High like ping pong balls' thing...

1050 Arctic Highs don't bounce off Bermuda Highs... they move them.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is warmer, still, for Texas over the next 2 weeks. All cold air is shunted off to the east. I wouldn't count on that being accurate, yet.

[Cpv17]

European model has us here in southeast Texas quite a bit cooler at 120 hours on the 12z vs the 0z. Hope that trend continues!

[wxman57]

European model has us here in southeast Texas quite a bit cooler at 120 hours on the 12z vs the 0z. Hope that trend continues!

I'm not seeing it. I see low-mid 50s on both runs.

[starsfan65]

these models still in a lot of chaos.

[Cpv17]

Geez, even the Euro is now backing off on the front for next weekend. This isn't looking good for colder weather. Have a feeling this front that we just had might be the strongest one we'll see for a while.

[TexasBreeze]

This last front didn't even reach freezing and it only lasted a couple days and it will warm up the next several days.

[Cpv17]

European model has us here in southeast Texas quite a bit cooler at 120 hours on the 12z vs the 0z. Hope that trend continues!

I'm not seeing it. I see low-mid 50s on both runs.

I was just referring to this
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_6.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... scus_6.png

[Brent]

Euro keeps DFW above freezing the entire run does get down to 33 next weekend but that's over 10 degrees warmer than last night's run

[gatorcane]

Model runs continue to show all the arctic air staying north with hints of an anomalously strong SE CONUS ridge developing in the long-range. For example:

[starsfan65]

Euro keeps DFW above freezing the entire run does get down to 33 next weekend but that's over 10 degrees warmer than last night's run

Do u think this run could be true?

[JDawg512]

Yea it's gotten off topic, sorry about that. It is a conversation for summer not winter.

On the subject of winter, as much as a lot of fellow forumers would love to see a wintery precip or snowy Christmas day, it would be bad to travel to my family dinner that my uncle and aunt are hosting at their ranch just northwest of the town of Llano. The Hill Country would undoubtedly be hazardous for driving.

We can have a winter storm the day after

You would be watching closely then I would assume to make plans accordingly . Unfortunately it is potential travel days before and after Christmas for many.

Then we should all hope that there is no Christmas storm.

[orangeblood]

Euro keeps DFW above freezing the entire run does get down to 33 next weekend but that's over 10 degrees warmer than last night's run

Do u think this run could be true?

The source region for this cold is directly out of Northern Siberia with little modification, I seriously doubt the models have a clue on how to handle that low level cold air this far out....typically when you see models struggle like this it's due to a juicy battleground setting up that could potentially create a Major Winter Storm. These model swings are very common this time of year

[Cpv17]

Euro keeps DFW above freezing the entire run does get down to 33 next weekend but that's over 10 degrees warmer than last night's run

Do u think this run could be true?

The source region for this cold is directly out of Northern Siberia with little modification, I seriously doubt the models have a clue on how to handle that low level cold air this far out....typically when you see models struggle like this it's due to a juicy battleground setting up that could potentially create a Major Winter Storm. These model swings are very common this time of year

What concerns me is that the cold air on these model runs wants to stay up north and push more towards the Great Lakes & the Northeast instead of coming straight down the side of the Rockies and plains into Texas, which is what we need to see for a shot at cold air here. What we're seeing here from the models is a cold north & warm south, which is exactly what people were predicting for this winter with the weak Niña.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I couldn't resist with all of the cold air being pulled from runs.