Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1021 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:00 pm

Shocker. Lol. I will have to go to one of those "break something" rooms if the snow goes south. lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1022 Postby Snowman67 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:01 pm

Cerlin wrote:Right on cue, the 00z GFS drops all snow for DFW.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 21200&fh=0

See hour 60
Last edited by Snowman67 on Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1023 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:02 pm

I swear if it misses Dallas again especially to the south i'm gonna be closer to convinced it doesnt snow here anymore :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1024 Postby Cerlin » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:05 pm

Snowman67 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Right on cue, the 00z GFS drops all snow for DFW.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 21200&fh=0

See hour 60


I retract my statement. The 00z GFS drops all snow for Dallas and it’s suburbs.
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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1025 Postby Haris » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:06 pm

Brent wrote:I swear if it misses Dallas again especially to the south i'm gonna be closer to convinced it doesnt snow here anymore :lol:



Someone needs to get it! Either Austin and/or Dallas. NOT the cattle ! LOL
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1026 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:24 pm

Pete Delkus showing the NAM snow map on air with 7 inches in Bowie... "oh my god the world is ending" :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1027 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:42 pm

Brent wrote:Pete Delkus showing the NAM snow map on air with 7 inches in Bowie... "oh my god the world is ending" :lol: :lol: :lol:


3k with the 21" lollipop?
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1028 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:45 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
Brent wrote:Pete Delkus showing the NAM snow map on air with 7 inches in Bowie... "oh my god the world is ending" :lol: :lol: :lol:


3k with the 21" lollipop?


As funny as it was it definitely wasnt the snowiest NAM I've seen
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1029 Postby missygirl810 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:57 pm

Just snow like 3 flakes where I can see it around the Hunt/Fannin county line, and I will feel special lol. :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1030 Postby Haris » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:09 am

Well the euro is clearly no help............. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1031 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:10 am

Haris wrote:Well the euro is clearly no help............. :D


lol where's the snow :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1032 Postby Haris » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:12 am

Brent wrote:
Haris wrote:Well the euro is clearly no help............. :D


lol where's the snow :double:


This is gonna be a pain for the weather service and all forecasters... Ugh :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1033 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:16 am

so much for the near foot bullseye the Euro had :lol: nobody really gets snow anywhere this run lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1034 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Dec 12, 2018 1:52 am

We see this every year. Wash, rinse, repeat! The models are all garbage. Let's just rub some sticks together, throw them in the air and guess.... Hey it might snow.

:spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1035 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 12, 2018 3:22 am

06z NAM SW of DFW with the snow and NW of Austin then it fades away back to rain

does show a few flakes mixed in over the metro towards Friday morning as the precip ends
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1036 Postby snowballzzz » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:25 am

Don't we see this alot with most snow opportunities? The models pick it up 5-7 days out and stay consistent and then lose it all 48 hours out?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1037 Postby snowballzzz » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:33 am

It looks like the Canadian is now on board with the GFS and NAM on tracking of the system..
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1038 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:33 am

Cerlin wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Right on cue, the 00z GFS drops all snow for DFW.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 21200&fh=0

See hour 60


I retract my statement. The 00z GFS drops all snow for Dallas and it’s suburbs.


Make sure you look at "Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change" on Tropical Tidbits. All snow south and west of Dallas on the 00Z GFS run. That doesn't mean there couldn't be any snowflakes as the precip ends, though.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=scus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2018121200&fh=60

Image
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1039 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:05 am

snowballzzz wrote:Don't we see this alot with most snow opportunities? The models pick it up 5-7 days out and stay consistent and then lose it all 48 hours out?


This happened last week in OK.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#1040 Postby Captmorg70 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:15 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
snowballzzz wrote:Don't we see this alot with most snow opportunities? The models pick it up 5-7 days out and stay consistent and then lose it all 48 hours out?


This happened last week in OK.


The storms haven’t been lost though. It’s just under 48 hrs the finer details have been resolved.

Last week a few on the board had been saying a coastal low in TX will prevent snow that far north. That’s exactly what happened.

This storm looks to be trending further south and a bit slower. The timing and location is not ideal for DFW anymore.

That’s kinda the problem with winter storms for us. We need a lot of things to work out right.
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